Tag Archives: California

California Numbers: Big Shifts Mean Many Questions

The US Census Bureau released the California population numbers, and those predicting that the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County would reveal significant population downturns were correct. In all, only 20 Golden State districts are over-populated compared with 33 that must gain inhabitants. Of the seats falling behind the population growth rate, 27 are held by Democratic members and six by Republicans. Of the over-populated states, 13 are Republican-controlled while seven Democratic seats must shed inhabitants.

The two most over-populated seats are in the Inland Empire, where Rep. Mary Bono Mack’s 45th district and Ken Calvert’s 44th CD have 211,304 more people than required and 141,851, respectively. Rep. Buck McKeon’s 25th district, also partially in the Inland Empire, is next with an overage of 141,415 individuals.

The overwhelming growth pattern occurred among Hispanics. Despite California gaining almost 3.4 million residents, the state did not add congressional representation for the first time in its history. Though Hispanic growth exploded during the decade, increasing by 27.8%, the non-Hispanic population grew at a paltry 1.5%, for a statewide gain of 10%. This is right at the national average of 9.7% and explaining why the state remains constant with 53 districts. The California Anglo population is now only a slight plurality. Whites account for just 40.1% of the population with Hispanics right behind at 37.8%. Huge growth was also recorded within the California Asian population. They now register a total of 13%, up from 11% in 2000. African-Americans remained constant at 6% of the Golden State population make-up.

It is clear that Californians are moving away from the coastal cities and into the inland regions of the state. Ten Bay Area congressional districts (including the Monterey Peninsula) must gain people while only two are over-populated, and those share territory with communities in the central part of the state. In the Central Valley (Modesto, Fresno, Madera, Merced, Bakersfield), all five seats are over-populated. This means there will be a shift in representation from the Bay Area toward the Central Valley. In what configuration the new California Redistricting Commission decides to draw the seats, however, is anyone’s guess at this point in time. It’s a sure thing that at least one Bay Area representative will have to add substantial new territory from an area far different from his or her current constituency. This could lead to some interesting primary and general elections in 2012.

The same pattern holds true for southern California.

Because of California’s dramatic population shifts and the emergence of the new redistricting commission, the Golden State is truly a redistricting wild card. Much will happen here in the coming months.
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Democrats Announce First Frontline Group

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee made public their first list of 15 Frontline candidates, those they believe will need the most help to win re-election in 2012. Redistricting, however, will have much to say about the fortune of these members and many others.

The list begins with Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ-8), still recovering from the senseless and tragic shooting that put her life in grave danger. Remember, however, that she won by just 1.5 percentage points over Iraq War veteran Jesse Kelly in November, which puts Giffords’ re-election status as unclear. Some even still mention her as a potential Senate candidate. Amidst all the uncertainty, one thing is clear: Giffords’ 8th district will change. The Arizona Redistricting Commission is charged with drawing new seats, and it is quite possible the members will craft a compromise to give Giffords a safe Tucson-based seat, should she be able to run, while the new Arizona congressional district would then become more Republican. Too much uncertainty exists to make an accurate contemporary prediction.

Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA-11) is in a similar political situation to that of Giffords. A new statewide redistricting commission will also draw the California districts. Right now, without the state even having its census block numbers yet, it is virtually impossible to gauge how McNerney will fare as population changes in the Bay Area appear significant. Another in an unknown situation is Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-IA-3), where the Hawkeye State is the only one in the country not to allow political considerations, or even the incumbent’s residence, to affect how the map is drawn.

The two New Yorkers listed, Reps. Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) and Bill Owens (D-NY-23) are also both in temporary limbo as is almost everyone in the Empire State. Slated now to lose two seats to apportionment, it remains to be seen what legislative compromise, or court action, will eliminate which seats. It is unlikely that Bishop can be collapsed because he occupies the far eastern end of Long Island, and being in a corner is always a plus when enduring redistricting.

The members currently viewed as vulnerable who are more than likely to benefit from redistricting are Reps. Tim Walz (D-MN-1) and Gerry Connolly (D-VA-11). Since Minnesota did not lose a seat in apportionment and they have split government, expect an incumbent-oriented map. Therefore, Walz’s seat should improve for him. With Republicans having an 8-3 advantage in Virginia, expect the Democratic districts, like Connolly’s 11th, to get stronger.

Though there is a slight unknown factor for Reps. Ben Chandler (D-KY-6) and Kurt Schrader (D-OR-5) because of their state government’s also being under split control, it is probable that both get equivalent or better districts than they respectively represent today.

The remaining six Frontline members all have serious redistricting problems, as Republicans hold the pen in their states:

  • Both Reps. Larry Kissell (D-NC-8) and Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7) are likely to face very adverse constituencies under the new North Carolina map.
  • Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-9) is expected to be paired with veteran Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI-12) because Michigan loses a seat. Under this scenario the new Peters-Levin district would be heavily Democratic, but the two would be forced to duel each other in a primary battle.
  • A similar situation could occur in Pennsylvania where Reps. Mark Critz (D-PA-12) and Jason Altmire (D-PA-4) could find themselves fighting for one district. Like Michigan, Pennsylvania will lose one seat.
  • Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3), another razor-thin election survivor, could find himself as the odd-man-out in Missouri’s delegation reduction. His district and that of neighboring Rep. Lacy Clay (D-MO-1) are the two least populated in the state. Clay is likely to survive because the Republican legislature and Democratic Governor are unlikely to collapse an African-American district and will want to protect St. Louis city as the dominant population center in one seat.
  • Finally, with Utah gaining a seat, will the Republican legislature and governor concede a seat to Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT-2), or draw a pie-shaped map emanating from Salt Lake City? The latter option would give the GOP good odds to defeat Matheson and win all four districts. But, it’s too early to tell what might happen.

With redistricting having such a major factor upon virtually all states, it is very difficult to accurately determine political vulnerability until the new maps are set. Thus, the Frontline member group composition will likely change drastically between now and Election Day 2012.
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A Strange Potential Re-match in California

Rep. Jane Harman’s (D-CA-36) resignation is putting an odd set of political musical chairs in motion. With Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn (D) already moving forward with her special election congressional candidacy, California Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D) also is telling state party officials that she, too, will run for Congress. The interesting part of this scenario is that the man she just defeated for re-election to her statewide post, former professional football player Damon Dunn (R), may also run against her for Congress. Bowen easily won the 2010 statewide race 54-39%.

It is unusual that two statewide opponents in a place the size of California would actually be from the same community, but even wilder that both are now looking to run for a district office so soon after competing on the bigger stage. Bowen’s interest in Congress may pertain to her now serving her second and final term as secretary of state. California limits its constitutional officers to two consecutive terms. The 36th congressional district is decidedly Democratic and, under the state’s new election law, it is permissible for two members of the same party to qualify for the special general election. So, it’s conceivable that the Bowen-Dunn re-match may never occur. Democrats are favored to hold the seat, and a Hahn-Bowen “Double D” general election is certainly within the realm of possibility.
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California Candidates Already Vying to Replace Harman

The new House of Representatives is about to have its first vacancy as Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA-36) will soon resign her seat in Congress to become the director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, succeeding former House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Lee Hamilton (D-IN-9). Harman originally was elected to Congress in 1992 and left six years later, relinquishing her seat to mount an unsuccessful campaign for governor of California. She returned to the House in 2000, defeating then-Rep. Steve Kuykendall (R), and was easily re-elected another five times.

Already Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn (D) is saying she will run in the special election. Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D), who was a state legislator from this part of California before winning her current post in 2006, is also reported to have interest in the off-year congressional race.

The 36th district is heavily Democratic and fully contained within Los Angeles County. The communities of Torrance, Redondo Beach and Manhattan Beach together provide the population anchor for the seat. Pres. Obama scored 64% of the vote here in 2008. Former Pres. George W. Bush could do no better than 40 and 39% in his two elections, 2004 and 2000, in respective chronological order.

The eventual CA-36 special election will also be the first such campaign under California’s new primary law. As adopted by the voters in 2010, if no one receives 50% plus one vote, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will qualify for the general election. Gov. Jerry Brown (D) must call the special election between 112 and 126 days from the date of vacancy.
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The 2012 Presidential Delegates

Soon the 2012 presidential campaign will be starting in earnest, and we will again experience the laborious and complicated process of nominating candidates for the general election campaign. With a sitting incumbent unlikely to face a strong intra-party challenge, the Democrats will have little action on their side of the political ledger. Thus, Pres. Barack Obama’s nomination process will be little more than a formality.

Though the Republican candidates seem to be a little slow getting out of the gate right now, the major action still will be in their party. With no clear front-running candidate, the delegate count becomes even more important because the eventual winner is forced to build a large early lead. Again, having candidates who will likely only be strong in a particular geographic region, as was the case in 2008, it is anyone’s guess as to who will break out of the pack and claim the Republican nomination.

Though we are now less than a year from the first caucus vote, many decisions are still undetermined. Most states have only a tentative schedule in place, while others still must make a decision on their delegate selection format.

The 50 states and six voting territories have several ways of determining their own individual nominating system. The most popular is the winner-take-all (WTA) option, where the candidate receiving the most votes gets all of the state’s delegates. Arizona and Missouri are traditionally in this category. Other states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Utah are likely to be WTA’s in 2012.

Some states, like California and Florida, choose a modified winner-take-all system. A candidate receives a certain number of delegates for winning the state, and then is awarded every delegate in each congressional district won.

The last major category is the proportional system. This is where each candidate is awarded delegates based upon the percentage of the popular vote that he or she receives in the primary election. States can hold their nominating process either through a direct vote of the people either in an open or closed primary, or via a caucus system.

Right now, it appears that 11 states will use the winner-take-all system and another nine the modified WTA. An additional nine will use the proportional primary option. Fifteen states will caucus. Another dozen entities will use some variation of the above, except for the two “loophole” states. Illinois and Pennsylvania conduct a primary, but instead of selecting the presidential candidates, voters here choose the delegates themselves. Normally the delegate candidate is listed in a way that clearly denotes who the individual supports for president, but the vote is cast for the individual delegate, nonetheless.

In 2012, the Republicans will have a total field of 2,421 delegates. Exactly 1,879 individuals, called “pledged delegates,” will go to the Republican National Convention pledged to vote for a particular candidate at least on the first ballot. Another 542 will be free agents and will report to the convention as “unpledged” delegates. A candidate will be nominated for president once he or she obtains 1,211 delegate votes.

The first vote looks to be in Wyoming, at their county caucus program on Jan. 7, 2012. Iowa will be the first major event, tentatively scheduled for Jan. 16. South Carolina, right now, is next up for Jan. 21. New Hampshire is tentatively picking Jan. 24, but the Granite State is sure to move up, as the party rules allow New Hampshire to retain its position as the first primary state. Florida will follow on Jan. 31. Maine and Alaska will have a caucus procedure before Super Tuesday. Currently, 15 states appear to be lining up for a Feb. 7 Super Tuesday election.

At this point in the process, 22 states will have chosen at least a partial slate of delegates, and a grand total of 1,096 delegate votes will be decided or officially categorized as unpledged. Through Tuesday, March 6, 41 states will have chosen delegates, most likely meaning that the Republican nomination will be decided by that date. If not, then we could be headed for the first brokered convention in generations, truly a nightmare scenario for the GOP as it already faces an uphill challenge in unseating an incumbent president, especially if the Democrats can unify their party.

Count on seeing and hearing much more about the Republican delegate count as we march forward to the another marathon presidential election. The fun is about to begin.
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