Tag Archives: California

California’s Redistricting Plan

With the release of the long-awaited 53-seat California map and, considering its impact upon national redistricting, we devote this entire report to the Golden State’s new plan. Since this is the first time the state’s maps were drawn by a commission, California was viewed as a redistricting wild card. The results certainly lived up to expectations.

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission (CCRC) released the first drafts for the congressional delegation, state Senate, Assembly, and Board of Equalization last Friday. With analytical data now available, the federal map’s partisan complexion is becoming clearer.

Generally, the Commission is getting good reviews for doing what was tasked. When adopted by the voting public, the CCRC was supposed to draw maps that adhered to all applicable laws, respected communities of interest more than incumbent protection, and made the districts as compact as possible by breaking the fewest numbers of county lines. It appears the Commission receives high marks for their first effort. The maps may be changed through public hearing and comments until July 7. Final adoption is scheduled on or before August 15. The first draft was unanimously passed 14-0.

After studying the map more closely, possible because the Meridian Pacific company released political data to coincide with the new district lines, it appears that the proposal is a bit less friendly to the Democrats than originally surmised. Though it is possible that the Dems could gain as many as three seats from the Republicans, it’s just as possible that they could lose a net of two districts. (Current Delegation: 34D-19R)

In all, it appears that 37 incumbents will have safe seats; 22 Democrats and 15 Republicans. Thirteen members, 10 Democrats and three Republicans, have some political problems either from being paired or placed in a district that is not favorable to their political party, or is highly marginal with no particular advantage to either side. Three additional seats (Reps. Dan Lungren (R-CA-3); Adam Schiff (D-CA-29); Susan Davis (D-CA-53) are borderline, meaning the current incumbent probably wins comfortably in 2012 but, as the decade progresses, their region could become much more competitive. The plan also created two open seats; one in Los Angeles and the other in Riverside.

The congressional draft features 11 sets of incumbent pairings, including a Central Valley district that contains the homes of three current incumbents. In only three of the 11 pairings, however, will it be likely that a sitting member does not return to the House.

Rep. David Dreier (R-CA-26) finds his current district split six ways, and though his home is placed in the same district as that of Rep. Judy Chu (D-CA-32) in the East San Gabriel-Covina district, his best chance to win re-election probably lies in the seat labeled “Ontario.” The CRCC has not yet numbered the districts, preferring to name them by geographic regions. The Ontario seat contains only about 30 percent of Mr. Dreier’s current district, and is much more Democratic. Already state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D), who represents much of this area in the legislature, has said she will run for Congress in this seat. So, Mr. Dreier will have a severe challenge, made even more difficult with President Obama on the ticket in 2012.

Veteran Reps. Howard Berman (D-CA-28) and Brad Sherman (D-CA-27) are paired in the West San Fernando Valley district. Sherman has 51 percent of the new territory versus just 19 percent for Berman. Sixty-one percent of Berman’s current seat lies in the East San Fernando Valley district, but this new open seat is 68 percent Hispanic, and Los Angeles City Councilman Tony Cardenas (D) has already said he will run here. Sherman would also have the option of challenging Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA-24) in the East Ventura district, which is a very marginal seat for both sides. It is probable that either Sherman or Berman will not return, and very possibly both. Gallegly is also seriously endangered in his new district.

The final incumbent-damaging pairing is in the East Los Angeles seat as Reps. Xavier Becerra (D-CA-31) and Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA-34) find themselves sharing the newly configured district. Neither has a good option of moving to an incumbent-less seat so, unless one retires, the two will square-off in the next Democratic primary.

All of the other pairings, including the three-way among Reps. Dennis Cardoza (D-CA-18), Jeff Denham (D-CA-19), and Jim Costa (D-CA-20) give the incumbents an opportunity to hop to a nearby district, thus avoiding challenging another incumbent. In this particular instance, however, both Cardoza and Costa could face serious Republican opposition, while Denham looks to have a seat that he can easily win.

Other incumbents likely to have a difficult time securing re-election are Reps. Jerry McNerney (D-CA-11), Lois Capps (D-CA-23), Gary Miller (R-CA-42), and Loretta Sanchez (D-CA-47). Though all can survive, they will almost certainly face very tough opposition in a weaker district. The current 36th CD, now headed to special election in July, is also a marginal seat under the new map. The district is labeled “Palos Verdes-Beach Cities.” Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn is expected to hold the seat for the Democrats, but she can expect competition in the regular election should she win next month.

This PDF spreadsheet details all 53 districts, with their new label and racial and political data. The political numbers come from the 2010 election and features the governor’s race, won by Democrat Jerry Brown 54-41 percent, and the extremely close attorney general’s contest where Democrat Kamala Harris was victorious by less than one percentage point.

  • Congressional Redistricting Now Completed:
  • Arkansas
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Louisiana *
  • Missouri
  • Oklahoma
  • (*Must obtain Justice Dept. pre-clearance)

California Redistricting: Big Shake-up

The new California Citizens Redistricting Commission (CCRC) released their proposed congressional map late Friday afternoon and the early numbers suggest that 30 of the 53 current incumbents will have districts with at least 40% new constituents. Three incumbents, Reps. Gary Miller (R-CA-42), Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier (R-CA-26) and Energy & Commerce Ranking Minority Member Henry Waxman (D-CA-30) will all have districts that are more than 70 percent new. Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA-39) will see a new seat with 69 percent new territory.

Tomorrow we will have a full analysis on the new map in a Tuesday morning PRIsm Redistricting Report, but it appears that the Democrats will be in position to improve upon their already lopsided 34D-19R edge. Many believed the Republicans would have a better chance to remain steady or even increase their position under the commission process rather than through the Democratic-dominated state legislature, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

Several members are paired, as will be detailed tomorrow, but it appears that Rep. Gary Miller and Chairman Dreier are in the toughest re-election positions, along with Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA-50). Many Democrats are drawn into substantially new districts, but most of the newly configured districts are safe for the Democratic Party. The Central Valley region appears to be where the Democrats may have the toughest time holding all of their seats because some of the Fresno area districts look to be swing.

The CCRC is comprised of five Democrats, five Republicans, and four Independents. To pass a map, four Democrats, four Republicans, and three Indpendents have to vote in favor. The proposed congressional map attracted unanimous support from the 14 members. The maps are now open for public comment. A final vote will occur on or before August 15th.

Much more coming tomorrow …
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Draft Rick Perry?

A surprising group of people have formed a presidential draft committee for Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Though the Republican four-term chief executive has said he is not running for president, five California Republican state legislators think he should. The group, led by northern California Assemblyman Dan Logue and four of his colleagues, say they want Perry to run because of his strong job creation record. Logue and a delegation of Golden State legislators recently traveled to Austin to meet with Perry and others to determine why Texas is adding employment and California is hemorrhaging business opportunities. The draft committee founders believe the Perry policies that have led to 165,000 new Texas jobs being created during the past three years, while California has lost a commensurate 1.2 million positions, is the type of leadership the country needs nationally.

A “Perry for President” campaign, even starting at this late date, could potentially become serious. With no candidate now being able to lay claim to the important southern states, a southwestern governor with a strong, conservative record such as Mr. Perry would have marked potential. Rick Perry may be yet another individual to watch as the presidential sweepstakes now begin to take shape in earnest.
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Bowen Concedes in Calif.; Surprise Ruling in Nevada; Hirono for Senate in Hawaii

California Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D) conceded her fate yesterday in the special congressional election, offering her congratulations to Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn (D) and businessman Craig Huey (R) for advancing to the general election. Hahn placed first and clinched position No. 1 for the July 12 special general, but the second and final slot was in doubt as absentee ballot counting continued. Huey surprised everyone by nipping Bowen by just over 200 votes on election night, but more than 10,000 absentee ballots had not been tabulated. Once the post-election counting began, and Huey actually increased his margin over Bowen to more than 700 votes, the Secretary of State announced her concession.

This is a surprise result. Most believed that Hahn and Bowen would advance to the special general and be in a close contest. Under California’s new election law, as approved by voters in a 2010 ballot initiative, the top two vote-getters, regardless of political party affiliation, advance to the general election.

The 36th congressional special election — held after Rep. Jane Harman (D) resigned to accept a position with an international relations think tank — was the first test of the new election law in a federal campaign. But even under this new structure, a Democrat and a Republican will face each other in a one-on-one general election. Because of the heavy Democratic nature of this district, Councilwoman Hahn, previously defeated for this congressional seat in 1998 and then later for lieutenant governor, becomes the prohibitive favorite to win in July.

Nevada’s 2nd:

A Nevada state judge yesterday sided with a state Republican Party legal motion and over-turned Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller’s directive that the Sept. 13 special election in the 2nd congressional district be held in an open jungle ballot format. The judge accepted the GOP argument that the respective state parties have the power to nominate their own standard bearers in a special election. The Democrats will likely appeal the ruling to the state Supreme Court, a panel more likely to be favorable toward their position. The action was a bit of a surprise because the judge removed the people’s’ ability to choose candidates and put it in the hands of the state political party organizations. Under the ruling, the parties would have until June 30th to nominate their candidates. The original filing deadline for the jungle, winner-take-all, election was May 25th.

The ruling will have a great effect upon 2010 GOP Senatorial nominee Sharron Angle who has a strong chance of winning in the jungle election format, but is unlikely to secure the Republican nomination from a panel of state party officials. Democrats believe the jungle ballot approach favors them if they can unite behind one strong candidate and the Republicans remain split. So far, though, more than one strong Democrat is in the race. Much more will happen, and quickly, to finally determine how this election will be conducted.

Hawaii Senate

Across the Pacific Ocean in the 50th state of Hawaii, two-term Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-HI-2) announced that she will run for the Senate next year. Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) is retiring. Hirono has high approval ratings and will certainly be a strong candidate in both the Democratic primary and general elections. In fact, a new Ward Research poll (May 4-10; 614 registered Hawaii voters) shows Hirono in the strongest position of any Democrat if former Gov. Linda Lingle becomes the Republican nominee. Hirono would defeat Lingle 57-35 percent according to the data. Former Rep. Ed Case (D-HI-2) is already a Senatorial candidate. Other potential Democratic contenders are Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (HI-1), ex-Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, and Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz. Because Lingle loses to all of the aforementioned in hypothetical pairings, the Democrats are the early favorites to hold the open seat in next year’s general election.
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It’s Not Over in California’s 36th

The 36th special congressional primary appeared to have placed Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn (D) and businessman Chris Huey (R) in the July 12th general election, but we now discover that all the votes have yet to be counted. In fact, approximately 10,000 absentee ballots remain to be tabulated. The outstanding votes are certainly enough to propel third place finisher, Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D), past Huey and into the final run-off position. California recently changed its election law to allow the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, to qualify for the general election.

Several post-election analyses were suggesting that Huey making the run-off, if it stands, is a major upset but the actual statistics don’t support such a conclusion. In aggregate, the Democrats received 56.7 percent of the vote versus the total Republican 40.9 percent tally. Last November, Gov. Jerry Brown (D) carried the 36th with a 56-41 percent margin over GOP nominee Meg Whitman, and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) matched the previous Democratic total (56%) in her race against businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Therefore, last night’s results actually reflect a normal partisan division for this Los Angeles Harbor area district.

Regardless of the final outcome, the Democrats are in the driver’s seat to win in July, most likely in the person of Ms. Hahn.
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For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.