Tag Archives: California Citizens Redistricting Commission

California’s Changing Congressional Makeup

In what became an expected announcement, particularly considering the developments during the past few days, 17-term Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA-41) confirmed that he will retire at the end of the current Congress. Mr. Lewis, a former Appropriations Committee chairman and the dean of the California Republican delegation, was first elected to the House in 1978 after serving 10 years in the state Assembly.

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission placed Lewis’ home in the new 31st District, a politically marginal seat anchored in the cities of San Bernardino, Rialto, and the congressman’s home of Redlands. But most of his Republican territory wound up in the new 8th District, a seat that begins in San Bernardino County, but which travels up the California-Nevada border all the way to Yosemite. When the map was passed, Mr. Lewis said he would not move his family to claim the 8th, but it also didn’t look like he would risk defeat by running in the 31st, which, more often than not, will elect a Democrat.

The other incumbent placed in CA-31 was Rep. Joe Baca (D-CA-43). Surveying the district after the lines were made public, Mr. Baca believed his political fortunes were better served by running in the new District 35, even though his home city of Rialto is excluded and having to face a popular Democratic state senator, Gloria Negrete McLeod, in an intra-party challenge that could consume a full year under California’s new election law.

Surprisingly, on the heels of the Lewis retirement statement, Rep. Gary Miller (R-CA-42), currently paired with fellow Republican Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA-40) in new District 39, said he will now run in the vacated 31st. Miller currently represents a small portion of San Bernardino County that is housed in the 31st, and he obviously believes his chances of surviving in a marginal Democratic seat are superior to fighting a Republican-on-Republican war with Mr. Royce. Thus, the big winner in this scenario is Rep. Royce, as he is now the only incumbent in the safely Republican CA-39. He still will have significant primary opposition, however, as Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson is an announced Republican candidate who could prove to be a formidable candidate.

The Miller move sends another signal, too. Because Rep. David Dreier (R-CA-26), whose current district was split six ways, also represents part of the new 31st it was thought that this could be a landing place for him should Mr. Lewis either run in the 8th or retire. With no further inkling from Mr. Dreier that he is looking at the 31st, the speculation that he too will retire certainly gains credence.

Should Dreier follow suit and leave the House, California Republicans will lose their top four senior members: Lewis, Dreier, Rep. Wally Herger (R-CA-2), and Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA-24). Their combined length of service is 118 years.

Now that the 31st is officially an open seat, expect action to occur soon. The top Democrat in the race so far is Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar. Aside from Rep. Miller, state Senate Minority Leader Bob Dutton and San Bernardino District Attorney Michael Ramos are both potential Republican contenders. Taking into consideration California’s new law that sends the top two finishers from the qualifying election onto the general regardless of political party affiliation, virtually anything can happen in this race.

Though CA-31 leans Democratic, it doesn’t do so by much. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), for example, won here by just two points, 46-44 percent. The Republican attorney general candidate, though losing a close race statewide, carried the new 31st 46-39 percent. Gov. Jerry Brown scored a 49-41 percent win over GOP businesswoman Meg Whitman.

Expect this race to fluctuate between “toss-up” and “lean Democrat” all the way to the November election.

Calif. Rep. Gallegly to Retire

In a move many expected when the California redistricting map dealt him a cruel political blow, 13-term Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA-24) announced over the weekend that he will not seek re-election later this year, thus ending his quarter century tenure in Congress.

Mr. Gallegly had two choices after the California Citizens Redistricting Commission re-drew the Ventura County/Simi Valley (west Los Angeles County) area. He could run in the new 26th District, which comprises most of Ventura County, a place Gallegly has represented for most of his career, but which does not include his home and political power base of the Simi Valley region. While he would be in the incumbent in the new 26th, the district is politically marginal and the chances of a Democrat beating him in November are good. President Obama, who will of course lead the Democratic ticket again in 2012, scored 56 percent here in 2008.

Mr. Gallegly’s other option would have been to challenge fellow Republican Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA-25) in the new 25th CD. This district will likely elect a member of the GOP in November but, aside from including Simi Valley, the new 25th is comprised mostly of McKeon’s political base in Santa Clarita and Palmdale. Gallegly would have been at a decided disadvantage had he run against McKeon but, under California’s new primary election law, it is likely the race would have lasted a full year as both would likely have qualified for the general election because the top two primary finishers advance to the general election regardless of political party affiliation.

All of the aforementioned made retirement Mr. Gallegly’s best option. The 26th District is now officially listed as an open seat. The retiring congressman becomes the 27th House incumbent to announce that he or she won’t run for re-election, and the 13th to choose outright retirement. The others are seeking a different office. Adding the new seats created in reapportionment and redistricting to this list, 43 open seat races are already present.

Without Gallegly in the political picture, the new 25th District (McKeon) becomes a Likely Republican seat, while District 26 now goes to “lean Democrat.” The seat’s political complexion is highly marginal, however, and a strong Republican candidate could conceivably win with a break or two.

Potential California Candidate Pairing Snapshots

Now that the California redistricting map is law, we can examine the various incumbent pairings and potential pairings that could exist. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission clearly did not pay heed to incumbency, since a huge number of sitting incumbents were placed in districts with a colleague.

District 4: Dan Lungren/Tom McClintock – Since the map was finalized Aug. 15, Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA-3) indicated that he may hop over into the new District 4 to challenge Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA-4) in the Republican primary rather than stand for re-election in new District 7, where his home was placed. This would be a curious move, since District 7, which contains the majority of Lungren’s current territory, could certainly elect a Republican but likely would be at least moderately competitive throughout the decade.

New District 4, which begins in South Lake Tahoe and travels south down the Nevada border all the way to Yosemite National Park, is comprised of a preponderance of McClintock’s current CD. The fact that Lungren would even suggest such a move indicates he likely feels more comfortable doing battle against a Republican than facing a Democrat in a competitive general election, especially when winning the 2012 battle against McClintock would likely yield a safe seat until 2022. The new CA primary law that qualifies the two top vote-getters into the general election regardless of party means that the pair would likely face each other in both June and November, adding yet another caveat to the northern California political picture.

It is probable that Lungren will stay in District 7, because he would be a decided underdog to McClintock in District 4. The fact that Lungren would suggest taking on his Republican colleague in this configuration is quite surprising, however.

District 16: Dennis Cardoza/Jim Costa – This is another surprising situation. The commission map was not particularly kind to the Central Valley incumbents. Technically, three sitting members, Cardoza (D-CA-18), Costa (D-CA-20), and Republican Jeff Denham (R-CA-19) were all placed in new District 16. Each, however, has an adjacent seat in which to run. Denham will choose the new District 10, which is more competitive than his current district, but still one that he can win.

Since the map was enacted this past Monday, retirement rumors began swirling around Cardoza, suggesting that he would rather leave the House than run against his friend and fellow Democrat, Costa. The new 21st district, however, is a place where Costa could run – in fact, in contains the bulk of his current CD – but apparently the congressman does not want to face another close general election in a seat that is even more Republican. Costa only squeaked through in the last election 51-49%. Should Cardoza retire and thereby leave the new 16th district to Costa, the latter would become the favorite, though competition from a Republican is still a real possibility. This is another curious situation that has yet to be resolved. The GOP has a chance to gain at least one seat, probably the 21st, in this region.

District 25: Buck McKeon/Elton Gallegly – This is yet another situation where it appears a member would rather face a competitive primary than go hard against a candidate from the other party. The homes of Reps. McKeon (R-CA-25) and Gallegly (R-CA-24) were both placed in new District 25, which is comprised largely of McKeon’s current district. Gallegly also could run in the new Ventura County-based 26th district, which is a 50/50 D-R seat that only slightly tilts Republican.

Reports from the Gallegly camp, however, indicate he is looking more favorably at challenging McKeon than running in the marginal district, even though he would be the lone incumbent in the latter and currently represents a large portion of the territory. Based upon the draw in the new 25th, it is hard to classify Gallegly as anything but a decided underdog to McKeon, which makes it surprising to see him suggest he might take that option. Gallegly retiring, as he almost did two terms ago, is also a distinct possibility.

District 30: Brad Sherman/Howard Berman – The San Fernando Valley will see a major pairing as the area’s two veteran Democratic members will square-off. This is another of the California situations that could witness a major battle between the two in the qualifying primary and then in the general election, as the most likely scenario points to both Democrats moving into November under the state’s new election law. Sherman already represents about 50% of the new 30th District, as compared to Berman’s 20%, and he begins with more than $3.6 million in the bank, but that doesn’t guarantee victory. Berman is the more experienced campaigner and should command greater internal party support than Sherman. This race could turn into an epic political battle.

One other possibility, however, is for Sherman to hop over into the marginal 26th district. Particularly if Rep. Gallegly chooses to bypass the district, the 26th might become attractive to Sherman, if he thinks he can’t beat Berman. But, Sherman represents only a sliver of the current 26th, and he would be vulnerable to a Republican challenge. Thus, he has two difficult options.

District 38: Grace Napolitano/Linda Sanchez – The commission map drawers were also not kind to Rep. Linda Sanchez (R-CA-39). Regardless of where she chooses to run, she is likely to face a Democratic incumbent. Her home is placed in new District 38, but this seat is predominantly composed of Rep. Grace Napolitano’s current 38th CD. Napolitano has already announced her intention to seek re-election in the new 38th, thus forcing Sanchez into a difficult decision. She must either challenge Napolitano where she will be a decided underdog, or run in another seat. Her most likely option would be new District 47, the Long Beach seat, but she will face both state Sen. Alan Lowenthal (D) and probably a significant Republican challenger. It is possible that Rep. Laura Richardson (D-CA-37) could move here, too.

District 39: Ed Royce/Gary Miller – Something’s got to give in Orange County. The now-official map places the homes of Reps. Ed Royce (R-CA-40) and Gary Miller (R-CA-42) in new District 39, a seat that largely favors Royce in terms of current territory. Royce could choose to move south and challenge Rep. John Campbell (R-CA-48) in new CD 45, but this would still subject him to a pairing with a Republican incumbent. For his part, Miller says he won’t run against Royce or any other incumbent, meaning he could be headed toward retirement. If Royce does move into CD 45, then Campbell would be forced into a pairing either against the former or moving into new District 48 to take on Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA-46). In any event, among the quartet of Orange County Republican congressmen – Royce, Miller, Campbell and Rohrabacher – expect one of them not to return.

District 44: Janice Hahn/Laura Richardson – The situation involving the minority-weighted new 44th District is also surprising. Rep. Janice Hahn (D-CA-36), who just won her seat in a July special election, has already announced she will seek re-election in the heavily Hispanic 44th District rather than face Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA-30) in the district that contains the bulk of her current seat. In this Compton-Culver City-South Gate CD, Hahn will have a white population that tallies only 9 percent, meaning she is vulnerable to a challenge from a minority office holder such as Assemblyman Isadore Hall (D), who has already announced his intention to run for Congress, and probably Rep. Laura Richardson, since she currently represents a large portion of the territory.

The new primary law cuts poorly for Hahn. She very well may be able to qualify for the general election by at least placing second in June, but in November she will be one-on-one against either a black or Hispanic opponent. In this situation, particularly since she currently represents such a small portion of the 44th, she becomes a decided underdog.

California is likely to dominate the 2012 US House picture because as many as 20 seats could become competitive either in the primary or general election, and in many cases, both. Watch in the coming days for even further developments.
___________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.

Rep. Hahn Won’t Challenge Waxman in California

On Monday, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission approved the final version of the Golden State’s congressional and legislative maps. Surprisingly, a resulting electoral situation that appeared likely to occur apparently won’t.

One of the many congressional incumbent pairings looked to feature Democratic representatives Henry Waxman and Janice Hahn squaring off against each other in the new 33rd CD. Though Hahn’s home was placed in the new 44th and Waxman’s in the new 28th, it is CA-33 that contains the preponderance of both of their old districts. Though Hahn would not be paired in the 44th district, the territory is overwhelmingly minority and a good bet for either an African-American or Hispanic state legislator or local official to win.

Waxman was placed with fellow Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff in a district that is largely comprised of the latter’s political base. Thus, it seemed that the best scenario for Hahn and Waxman was to oppose each other in the district where both were more familiar to area voters. Yesterday, Rep. Hahn announced she will stay in the 44th district and seek re-election there, ending speculation that she and Waxman would tangle.

Ms. Hahn, just elected to Congress in a July special election, has no easy path to re-election next year. The district she has chosen is heavily Democratic, but not an area that she has previously represented. The racial complexion suggests an Anglo candidate will have difficulty. The non-Hispanic White percentage of those over 18 years of age is only 9.02 percent. Hispanics dominate the district, registering 64.5 percent of the eligible voting population. Blacks are a full 18.5 percent.

Already, African-American Assemblyman Isadore Hall (D) has announced his intention to run for Congress. Rep. Laura Richardson, another Los Angeles-area Democratic congresswoman who did not receive a favorable redistricting draw, could also run in the 44th.

Rep. Hahn has made a rather eye-opening choice. The state’s new primary law that advances the two top vote-getters into the general election regardless of political party means that Hahn is likely to face a minority opponent one-on-one in the November election, should she get that far. Pure mathematics suggest that such a match-up would likely be unfavorable to Ms. Hahn and will limit her congressional tenure to less than one full term.

The candidate filing deadline is still months away, so decisions made now can certainly change. Today, however, Janice Hahn has likely made herself an endangered political species.
___________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.

The California Redistricting Quake is Coming

Assuming they formally adopt the latest version of the congressional redistricting map with few changes on Aug. 15, the new California Citizens Redistricting Commission will wreak havoc upon the Golden State’s congressional delegation. The state’s most senior and powerful members, other than House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-8), didn’t receive particularly favorable treatment from the new map drawers and with such people as House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier (R-CA-26), Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Henry Waxman (D-CA-30), and Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Howard Berman (D-CA-28) all facing more challenging political situations, substantial change is on the horizon.

Despite the state not receiving at least one new seat in reapportionment (CA didn’t gain a new district for the first time in history; in the 1990 census, for example, seven seats were added), the redistricting commission created five new open seats. Two other incumbent members, Reps. Lynn Woolsey (D-CA-6) and Bob Filner (D-CA-51) are retiring and running for another office, respectively, meaning a minimum of seven California congressional districts will be open in 2012.

Mr. Dreier has few options. His home is placed in new District 32. In this seat, 50 percent of the voting age population is Hispanic; 21 percent non-Hispanic White; 15 percent Asian; 4 percent African-American. Politically, 47.3 percent are registered Democrat versus just 28.3 percent Republican. President Obama scored 61 percent in the new 32nd; Governor Jerry Brown 57 percent. The other seat that contains a large portion of his current 26th district is new District 35. This option is actually even worse for Dreier. More than 65 percent of the resident voting age population is Hispanic; just 19 percent non-Hispanic White; 8 percent African-American, and 7 percent Asian. Here, 48.5 percent are Democrats compared to 28.5 percent who register Republican. Obama carried 62 percent of the new district’s votes; Brown 57 percent. Additionally, state Sen. Gloria McLeod (D), who already represents a large portion of the new 35th in the legislature, has announced that she will become a congressional candidate.

The only conceivable scenario that places Mr. Dreier in a winnable district is if Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA-24), currently paired with Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA-25) in the new 25th CD, either retires or runs against his GOP colleague, thus leaving the new Ventura County based 26th district open. A large portion of Gallegly’s current constituency is in the new 26th, so spinning into this new district is an option for him. This seat shows a D-R registration breakdown of 41.2-35.4 percent, respectively. Obama posted 57 percent in the new 26th, but the Republican nominees for governor, US senator, and attorney general all carried the district. Without an incumbent running, Rep. Dreier could conceivably move to this seat and become competitive.

Another interesting story is the backdrop surrounding Waxman (D-CA-30) and Berman (D-CA-28). Back in the 70’s, when both men were in the California Assembly, the two joined forces to elect other Los Angeles area Democrats to various offices. Their political partnership was tabbed the “Waxman-Berman Machine” and utilized state-of-the-art fundraising and political communication tactics, as directed by Berman’s brother Michael, to dominate the mega-county’s political landscape.

Now, decades later with both reaching 70 years of age, Waxman and Berman find themselves in challenging re-election situations. The Waxman pairing with newly elected Rep. Janice Hahn (D-CA-36) came about as a result of a new LA County Democratic political power base, the rapidly growing Hispanic community, flexing its muscle.

The original commission map paired Hispanic Reps. Xavier Becerra (D-CA-31) and Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA-34) into one district. Waxman had a winnable district to himself and Berman was paired with Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA-27) because the huge Hispanic growth in western LA County led to the creation of a new Hispanic seat made mostly from the former’s current 28th CD. The Berman-Sherman match-up is already being termed a “shoot-out” because the intra-party campaign will become a political brawl.

After completing the public comment and lobbying phase of the process, the commission released the latest version of the congressional map. Under its confines, both Becerra and Roybal-Allard now get a safe Democratic seat and Hahn, the daughter of the late Kenneth Hahn who dominated LA County local politics during his tenure as chairman of the County Board of Supervisors and herself a longtime veteran of the LA City Council, is placed in a heavily minority district (new District 44). The bulk of her current district, the seat she just won in a special election last month, which includes the Palos Verdes Peninsula and the beach cities of Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, and El Segundo, now goes to Waxman. This will force Hahn to challenge Waxman in the Democratic primary if she wants to continue her new congressional career. It further means that Waxman will have to run a serious campaign for the first time since his original election to the House back in 1974.

But, that is not all. Though heavily Democratic, the new Waxman-Hahn district (#33) can conceivably vote for a Republican. In the very close 2010 attorney general’s race, a campaign decided in the Democratic nominee’s favor by less than one percentage point statewide, the GOP candidate actually carried the new 33rd by two points. Though a Republican victory here is unlikely at the congressional level, it is possible that Waxman, should he fend off Hahn’s challenge, could see general election competition, too.

In a 53-district state that featured only one incumbent defeat during the entire last decade, the new California map will feature serious primary and/or general election competition in at least 20 districts in 2012. Quite a change is coming.
___________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.