Category Archives: Primary

Four More States Tonight

By Jim Ellis

March 8, 2016 — A quartet of states votes in Republican primaries and caucuses tonight: Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii, with the candidates fighting for an aggregate of 150 delegate commitments.

Democrats will vote only in Michigan and Mississippi. Former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton is expected to carry both states in her party contests, while Republican Donald Trump is favored in Michigan and Mississippi.

Observers are closely watching to see if Gov. John Kasich can finish a strong second in Michigan, which would likely help him build needed momentum in anticipation of next week’s critical Ohio Winner-Take-All challenge. Sen. Ted Cruz has the strong potential of running well in Idaho. Hawaii is small and anyone’s guess, but Sen. Marco Rubio has a chance to come away with the most delegate votes. Continue reading

Trending Toward
A Brokered Convention

By Jim Ellis

March 7, 2016 — Republicans voted in five states over the weekend, and all four remaining GOP presidential candidates gained delegate votes. Both Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump placed first twice, while Sen. Marco Rubio scored a backdoor Winner-Take-All victory in Puerto Rico.

The Delegate Count:

REPUBLICANS

Louisiana Primary 46 Delegates
Donald Trump – 41.4% 18 Delegates
Ted Cruz – 37.8% 18
Marco Rubio – 11.2% 5
Uncommitted 5
Kansas Caucus 40 Delegates
Ted Cruz – 48.1% 24 Delegates
Donald Trump – 23.3% 9
Marco Rubio – 16.7% 6
John Kasich – 10.7% 1
Maine Caucus 23 Delegates
Ted Cruz – 45.9% 12 Delegates
Donald Trump – 32.6% 9
John Kasich – 12.2% 7
Marco Rubio – 8.0%
Puerto Rico Primary 23 Delegates
Marco Rubio – 71.0% 23 Delegates
Donald Trump – 13.0% 9
Ted Cruz – 8.6% 7
John Kasich – 1.3%

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Denying Trump

March 4, 2016 — The Republicans are at a political crossroads. Now with voting completed in 15 states, Donald Trump finds himself settling into a support zone of between 316-334 committed delegates, depending upon what media count one examines. Sen. Ted Cruz’s support lies in the 224-234 range, while Sen. Marco Rubio falls between 110-113 pledged first ballot tallies. Gov. John Kasich has between 23-28 committed votes, while Dr. Ben Carson, who suspended his campaign Wednesday, has eight delegates according to all renderings. Carson will be speaking today at CPAC in Washington, D.C.

Trump’s high total of 334 is far from the 1,237 needed to secure the nomination, with 41 more states and territories yet to vote. In the next two weeks, culminating with the big Winner-Take-All primaries in Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66 delegates), voters from 17 entities will visit the polls. At the end of voting on March 15, 1,466 of 2,472 Republican delegates (59.3 percent) will be assigned to a candidate or placed in the unbound category. Therefore, the next two weeks will prove critical toward determining the GOP resolution.

Without changing the present course, Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination because no one opponent has unified the anti-Trump coalition. If the early front runner were to score another plurality victory in Florida and Ohio, an additional 165 delegates would come his way in addition to what he gains in places like Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, and Missouri, all of which will vote on or before March 15.

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Trump, Clinton Knocking on Door

March 3, 2016 — Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump delivered strong performances Tuesday night in their respective Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, but neither could land the knockout punch for which they hoped.

Clinton continued her dominance in the south, but surprisingly stumbled in Oklahoma. She won seven of the 11 Democratic voting entities Tuesday night (with American Samoa still to report at this writing). Sen. Bernie Sanders, in addition to his 51-41 percent win in Oklahoma, took his home state of Vermont, and the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses.

Clinton was again dominant in the states with large African-American populations and it is probable that she once more attracted approximately 90 percent support within the black community. Sanders, however, is in the superior position among white Democratic voters. Massachusetts was the only northern state that Ms. Clinton carried, but it was close. She finished with 50.3 percent of the Bay State popular vote.

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It’s Not Over Yet

by Jim Ellis

March 2, 2016 — Last night, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump took major steps toward winning their respective Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, but neither delivered a clinching blow. At least for Republicans, one mathematically viable scenario remains to fall into a contested convention (see “The Brokered Scenario” below). It appears we will know on March 15.

The delegate results:

Democrats

Clinton took seven of the 11 voting entities last night (American Samoa still must report) and, adding publicly committed Super Delegates, managed to top the 1,000 delegate-support mark.

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