Category Archives: Primary

Trump, Hillary Closing In;
Van Hollen, McGinty Post Solid Wins

By Jim Ellis

April 27, 2016 — Donald Trump exceeded expectations in last night’s eastern regional primary and looks to have won 112 of the available 118 delegates in the five voting states (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island). He needed at least 103 to stay on course for a first-ballot nomination victory.

The GOP front-runner captured a majority in every state, ranging from a high of 64 percent in Rhode Island to a low of 55 percent in Maryland. More importantly, he swept the winner-take-all by congressional district states in Connecticut and Maryland, winning each of the combined 13 congressional districts. Not only did Trump win every district and thus score backdoor winner-take-all victories in the congressional district domains along with adding the one at-large winner-take-all state (Delaware) to his column, he went so far as to win every county in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Delaware.

The April 26 primaries came on the last day that featured more than two states — until we reach the nomination finale on June 7. That day, an additional five states will host primary voting, including California. With its 172-delegate contingent, the Golden State is the nation’s largest delegation and will likely decide whether Trump can score a first-ballot victory or if the nomination battle falls into a contested convention.

For the Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton placed first in four of the five states and easily expanded her delegate take. Sen. Bernie Sanders took the Rhode Island primary, and came close in Connecticut, but Clinton easily captured the bigger states of Maryland and Pennsylvania. She also won a strong victory in Delaware. In all, Clinton likely captured about 200 delegates according to preliminary counts, well beyond the 27 percent she needs to average from the outstanding delegate pool in order to clinch the nomination.

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Sanders & Cruz Win Again;
Tennessee Filings

By Jim Ellis

April 12, 2016 — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) won his seventh consecutive Democratic nomination event as he scored a Saturday afternoon 56-44 percent Wyoming Caucus victory over Hillary Clinton. Though he realistically cannot close the delegate gap, mostly because of Clinton’s overwhelming strength among the party’s free agent Super Delegates, Sanders has still managed to win the popular vote in 17 states and territories as compared his opponent’s 20.

Wyoming has only 18 Democratic delegates, and while Sanders decisively won more state delegates in their caucus system, Clinton is coming away with more national convention delegate votes thanks to the aforementioned Super Delegates.

Once the regular and Super Delegate votes are tabulated, Clinton looks to have scored a positive 11-7 margin, despite the state delegate tally cutting against her.

According to The New York Times, the updated unofficial national count finds Clinton with an overall 1,756 to 1,068 advantage. This means the former Secretary of State is 627 votes shy of obtaining the 2,383 delegates required to claim the nomination with 20 states and territories yet to vote. Therefore, she needs less than one-third of the remaining delegates to win.

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Following Up on the
Big Wisconsin Wins

By Jim Ellis

April 7, 2016 — Both senators Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) handily exceeded expectations in Wisconsin Tuesday night. Cruz, in particular, had an impressive night, hovering around the 50 percent mark throughout the counting and finished just a point under the majority threshold. Donald Trump notched only 34 percent, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) came up way short with just 14 percent.

Wisconsin is a Winner-Take-All by congressional district state, and it is in the all-important delegate count where Cruz came close to running the table. Except for the two western state congressional districts, 3 (Rep. Ron Kind; D-La Crosse) and 7 (Rep. Sean Duffy; R-Wausau), the Texas lawmaker swept the state including the Madison-anchored 2nd District where Kasich appeared to be favored going into the election. Therefore, Sen. Cruz scored a 36-6 delegate apportionment victory over Trump, with Kasich being shut out.

The result should be seen as a significant setback for Trump, just as it is becoming clear that he will face a serious degradation in delegate support if the convention deadlocks and multiple ballots are required.

Reports emanating from states such as Louisiana, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Dakota and Arizona suggest that the delegate composition from these places, once the members are released according to their individual state law or party rule, will back away from Trump and head toward Cruz or possibly another candidate if others can be introduced into the process at the convention.

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Cruz, Sanders Storm Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis

April 6, 2016 — The closing polls consistently found a tightening of both the Badger State Republican and Democratic races, but they were wrong. The data from Marquette University Law School and Fox News that revealed a widening spread, and reported more than a week ago, proved more accurate.

Last night, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) easily won the Wisconsin primary and took 36 of the 42 Republican delegates in the Winner-Take-All by congressional district format. His popular vote margin was 48-35-14 percent over Donald Trump and Gov. John Kasich (R-OH). Trump won CDs 3 and 7, located in the state’s western sector, giving him six delegates. Gov. Kasich, despite being favored in Madison-anchored District 2, failed to win any delegate votes.

The result was a major setback for Trump’s quest for a first-ballot victory. Early national delegate projections suggested the Republican front-runner needed a Wisconsin victory to secure the nomination on the first convention roll call.

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Understanding State
Delegate Nuances

By Jim Ellis

April 5, 2016 — This past Sunday, the Drudge Report led with a story from a St. Louis political blogger who claimed Sen. Ted Cruz will be eliminated from obtaining a first ballot victory on April 26 even if he wins the Wisconsin primary today as all public polls indicate (The Gateway Pundit). The story’s premise is incorrect.

Joe Hoft, writing for the Gateway Pundit political blog, errs because he misunderstands the Republican National Committee delegate apportionment formulas. Therefore, to set the record straight, although Cruz is on political life support for a first ballot nomination, he likely won’t be mathematically eliminated this month.

Hoft misstates several points regarding exactly how the delegates are apportioned, particularly in the remaining Winner-Take-All by congressional district states. To capture all delegates in the seven states that use this system, one would have to place first in the statewide vote, and then carry every congressional district. Donald Trump accomplished this feat in South Carolina, but it appears unlikely Cruz will do so in Wisconsin today. Plus, Hoft’s projection (see chart in the linked article) that Trump would win two delegates from the Badger State is impossible because winning a CD awards the candidate three delegates. And, since even the three RNC delegates here are bound to the statewide winner, the remaining votes are assigned in groups of three after the 15 at-large delegates go to the statewide first-place finisher.

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