Category Archives: Presidential campaign

Illinois Primary Answers

Mitt Romney easily won the Illinois primary last night finishing exactly as the late polls predicted, 47-35 percent over Rick Santorum. Delegate-wise, it is more difficult to project this soon into the post-election process because Illinois is a “Loophole Primary” and voters were actually choosing individuals on the ballot to fill 66 of the 69 delegate positions. Romney will very likely exit Illinois with more delegates than the other candidates; but will he have enough to stay on track to reach the 1,144 committed delegates prior to the Republican National Convention in Tampa? It still may be too early to answer that question.

The congressional primaries brought few surprises, though the margin of veteran Rep. Don Manzullo’s defeat at the hands of freshman Adam Kinzinger (R-IL-11) raised more than a few eyebrows in the new 16th District. Polling had forecast an even race and it appeared Manzullo had the forward momentum toward the end of the campaign, but this clearly proved to be a misconception. Kinzinger won a 56-44 percent victory, a raw vote total of more than 9,000 votes. Since the Democrats did not file a candidate in the 16th District, Kinzinger is a lock in the general election. The county chairmen do have the power to meet and choose a nominee, but such a person would start in a major deficit position after this victory performance in what should be a reliable Republican seat.

In the lakeside 10th District, attorney Brad Schneider won a 47-39 percent win over political activist Ilya Sheyman, a favorite of the liberal “Netroots” organizations. He will oppose freshman Rep. Bob Dold (R) in what will be a highly competitive general election race.

To the southwest in the new Chicago suburban 11th CD, Rep. Judy Biggert (R) will attempt to convert the marginal seat intended as a Democratic pick-up. Former Rep. Bill Foster, who lost his 14th District seat in 2010, won the Democratic nomination with 59 percent of the vote against two other opponents. This also will be a race to watch in the fall.

In the western Illinois 17th District, East Moline Alderwoman Cheri Bustos cracked the 58 percent mark against two other candidates and will give freshman Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) all he can handle in the general election.

It is reasonable to expect heavy competition in six of the state’s 18 congressional districts. Democrats hope to net four seats when the dust settles in November. It is unclear how many they will actually win, but Dem gains are expected in the Land of Lincoln especially with favorite son Barack Obama again leading the top of the national ticket.

Today’s Illinois Primary

The state of Illinois now begins the process of deciding how their 69 delegates will vote at the Republican National Convention. Polling consistently shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum, but not by such a margin as to close out the latter’s candidacy.

Illinois is one of two “Loophole” primary states. Voters will actually vote twice for president today. They will first choose one of the national candidates, and then directly vote for individuals running for delegate from their particular congressional district. The popular vote has no bearing on the delegate selection process. The Loophole primary got its name because this particular system allowed a candidate to theoretically take all of a state’s delegates even though the entity did not adopt the winner-take-all format. The only other Loophole primary state is Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania.

Illinois will also choose its congressional nominees today. The House race attracting the most attention is the nip and tuck battle between veteran Rep. Don Manzullo (R-IL-16) and freshman Adam Kinzinger (R-IL-11) for the newly configured 16th CD. Polling shows a virtual tie, so expect this one to be decided by a very close margin.

The new Chicago suburban 8th District will choose a Democratic nominee, as former Veterans Affairs Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth battles ex-Deputy state Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi. The winner faces freshman Rep. Joe Walsh (R) in the general election, and will likely be favored because redistricting has significantly changed the political complexion of this district.

Along Lake Michigan north of Chicago in the 10th District, Democrats are sparring to find a nominee to challenge freshman Rep. Bob Dold (R) in a race that also promises to be competitive.

The Dems will also be selecting nominees to face Reps. Tim Johnson (R-IL-13) and Bobby Schilling (R-IL-17) in campaigns that also have the potential of becoming highly competitive.

Finally, both parties will choose their candidates to square off in the open 12th District, a seat left open because Rep. Jerry Costello (D) chose not to seek re-election. This district, too, has competitive possibilities for the fall.

Another interesting political night is again in store. Many questions will be answered and several new ones will undoubtedly be asked.

Romney Takes Puerto Rico; Delegate Projection Math

Mitt Romney steamrolled to victory in Puerto Rico’s primary last night, getting just over 83 percent of the vote. Turnout was on a pace to break 135,000 voters. Four years ago the Puerto Rico Republicans held a closed caucus, so there is nothing to compare the 2012 participation result. The win will likely net Romney 20 delegates. According to our PRIsm Information Network delegate tracking project, last night’s addition puts Romney seven delegate votes ahead of the minimum post-Super Tuesday commitments he needs to secure the nomination.

Tracking Republican presidential nomination delegates is no easy task. Great misconceptions abound as to whether or not Romney can secure the 1,144 delegates necessary to clinching the party nomination before the Republican National Convention begins in late August.

Simplistic delegate projection analyses, such as that of political pundit Dick Morris in his March 14 article on Dick Morris.com, are incorrect. Morris argues that Romney will clinch the nomination in early June because he will win the winner-take-all states of Puerto Rico (23 delegates), District of Columbia (19), Maryland (37), Connecticut (28), Delaware (17), Rhode Island (19), Oregon (28), California (172), Montana (26), New Jersey (50), and Utah (40). Morris goes onto say that Romney is also best positioned to claim the following “winner-take-all” states: Wisconsin (42), Indiana (46), West Virginia (31), Nebraska (35), and South Dakota (28). He then argues that Romney’s share of the remaining proportional states would give him a total of 1,298 delegates, or 154 more than the minimum target figure of 1,144.

The flaw in Morris’ calculations is that most of the states he cites as “winner-take-all” have rather stringent conditions to meet before a candidate is awarded all the entity’s delegates. In certain places becoming winner-take-all means a candidate must capture a majority of the votes cast (Connecticut, Puerto Rico), while others organize as winner-take-all statewide and then in congressional districts.

In the latter grouping – Maryland, Wisconsin and California on Morris’ list – a candidate is awarded a certain number of delegates for winning the statewide vote, usually 10, and an additional three for each congressional district carried. Thus, for a contender to win all of the state’s delegates in these places, he would have to win the statewide vote and every congressional district.

While it is mathematically possible to achieve this difficult victory scenario, in 2012 it has been rare when a candidate breaks the 50 percent mark. In fact, only nine times has a candidate received a majority vote and in two of those a full complement of candidates failed to qualify for the ballot. Romney scored majorities in Nevada, Idaho, Massachusetts, Virginia (only he and Ron Paul were on the ballot), Guam (only candidate on ballot), Puerto Rico and the Marianas Islands. Rick Santorum recorded majority wins in Kansas and Missouri (a “beauty contest vote” not determinative of delegate selection).

Of those states Morris previously mentioned, only Delaware (17 delegates), the District of Columbia (19), Montana (26), New Jersey (50), and Utah (40) are true Winner-Take-All states. Thus, the projection that Mr. Romney will secure the nomination after the mega California primary on June 5 is more than likely inaccurate.

Romney’s Reality and Other Struggling GOP Candidates

Now that the dust has settled and the final results have been recorded from the Tuesday night vote, it is clear that Mitt Romney slightly underperformed on the aggregate delegate count. With his win in Hawaii and the sweep of American Samoa’s nine delegates somewhat off-setting his third-place finishes in Mississippi and Alabama, Romney looks to have secured approximately 42 delegate votes on the evening. This is four to five short of his projected bare minimum pace necessary to secure 1,144 delegates before the Republican National Convention begins. Since he will more than likely continue to fare poorly in the remaining southern states of Louisiana (March 24), North Carolina (May 8), Arkansas (May 22), and Texas (May 29) the Midwestern trio of states – Illinois (March 20), Wisconsin (April 3), and Indiana (May 8) – are must-win landslides if he is to maintain his victory chances.

In other races, several Republican incumbents claimed renomination on Tuesday night with uninspiring percentages against weak opposition. Reps. Jo Bonner (R-AL-1), House Financial Services Chairman Spencer Bachus (R-AL-6) and freshman Alan Nunnelee (R-MS-1) all won their primary elections outright, but with percentages between 55 and 60 percent. This is hardly a normal result since such efforts against under-funded opponents usually find the incumbent exceeding 75 percent. Tuesday’s congressional vote, coupled with the defeat of Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH-2) and former Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH-15) last week in the Ohio primaries, could be an early indication that voters’ anti-incumbent sentiments, so prominent since the 2006 election, have yet to subside.

Here We Go Again: Santorum Takes Alabama, Mississippi

Mitt Romney’s fundamental weakness as a Republican presidential candidate again came to the forefront in last night’s Alabama and Mississippi primaries: He fares poorly in the south and in rural areas, the heart of the Republican vote base. His third-place finish in both states is a surprise considering several polls suggested he would either win or finish a close second in both places.

Looking at the Alabama map in particular, it again clearly illustrates the problems Romney has in an eventual face-off with President Obama. His only Alabama regional wins came in the state’s three largest urban metro areas: Birmingham, Montgomery, and Mobile. This was exactly the same pattern we saw in Ohio, where his strong performance in the Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati metropolises were enough to propel him to a razor-thin statewide victory. In a general election format, however, the city vote disappears to the Democratic nominee – President Obama – and his weakness within the Republican base regions becomes even more of a factor.

Consistently in the Republican nomination race, it has been Rick Santorum who has far exceeded his polling performance. Claiming first place in Mississippi and Alabama gives the once obscure GOP “also-ran” candidate now nine victories from the 28 states that have held nominating events (Santorum’s strong win in the Missouri primary did not carry any delegates and is omitted from this summation). Romney has won 16 states and territories, Newt Gingrich two, and Rep. Ron Paul one (a tight win in the little-noticed Virgin Islands caucus where only 384 people voted).

Hawaii and American Samoa, in the far western time zones, also held caucuses last night; Romney won both of these Pacific Rim entities.

Turning to the delegate count, we again remind our readers that every projection is a mere estimate. No single accurate accounting actually exists and won’t until the delegates themselves are chosen. Therefore, the most important number to follow is a “guesstimate” of Romney’s delegate total. Even with his two victories last night, it is probable that neither Santorum nor Gingrich can commit the 1,144 delegate votes needed to score a first ballot victory when the Republican National Convention convenes in late August. But Romney is not particularly close to getting there either.

In the four nominating events held last night, by our calculations, Mr. Romney needed to secure 46 delegate votes, and he appears to have come up short. In Alabama, where 16 delegate votes were required to keep pace in order to achieve just the bare minimum majority number, it looks like his total will be closer to seven. Needing 12 delegates from Mississippi, he may have notched 11. He will probably reach or exceed the combined number of 18 for Hawaii and American Samoa, once those votes are fully tabulated.

Still, even with a strong showing in those two places (Hawaii 20 total delegates; American Samoa nine), Mr. Romney will likely fall short of the 46 that would keep him on the trajectory to barely hit the 1,144 necessary votes. He is likely to come closer to 36 total delegates from last night’s voting, rather than the projected 46. Since the delegate forecasts are based upon achieving the absolute minimum number to claim the nomination, the margin for error is non-existent.

In an interview with Fox News last night, Gingrich predicted that Romney would fall short of committing the 1,144 necessary delegate votes once all 56 states and territories have voted. Gingrich went on to say that he would stay in the race all the way to the convention in Tampa, thus remaining alive in an open convention where anything might happen.

The Missouri County Caucuses are next to begin their voting process and will do so tomorrow. The results will likely codify Santorum’s previous primary victory. Missouri delegate selection (52 votes) comes via the caucus procedure. The Puerto Rico primary (23 delegates) is scheduled for Sunday, March 18, followed by the important Illinois primary (69 votes) slated for Tuesday, March 20.

A Polling Mish-Mash

The Alabama and Mississippi primaries are today, along with caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa, but the latest polls for the two southern states are producing inconclusive results as it relates to the national nomination picture. Such is normal for this presidential campaign, however.

Three different firms – Public Policy Polling, Rasmussen Reports and the American Research Group – conducted five polls during the March 8-11 period. PPP and RR surveyed both Alabama and Mississippi; ARG just polled Mississippi. Four of the five studies showed the leaders, either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich, to be ahead by no more than two points in either state.

On the other hand, the Rasmussen Mississippi poll (March 8; 750 likely Mississippi GOP primary voters) appears to be an outlier, since the results give Romney an eight-point (35-27-27-6 percent) edge over both Gingrich and Rick Santorum, with Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) trailing badly. Santorum polls inconsistently according to these surveys. He pulls to within one point of the lead once (RR Alabama poll) and two points another time (PPP Alabama poll), but falls as far as eight points behind in the RR Mississippi results, and 12 back in the ARG Mississippi data.

At this point, it matters less who finishes first in proportional primary and caucus events. The key statistic is delegate count and just how far away Romney sits from majority status. In today’s four nominating events, Romney needs to secure at least an aggregate of 46 delegates to keep pace with the minimum majority goal.

Santorum Wins Kansas

Despite losing badly in Saturday’s Kansas Caucus, Mitt Romney still kept pace on the delegate count with strong performances in the three territories that also were voting on Saturday: the Northern Marianas Islands, Guam and the Virgin Islands.

Rick Santorum topped the 50 percent mark in the Kansas Caucuses, winning the state with 51.2 percent of the vote. Mr. Romney was a distant second with just 20.9 percent. Newt Gingrich was next with 14.4 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) brought up the rear at 12.6 percent. For the event, Santorum appears to have been awarded 33 delegates and Romney seven. But it was in the territories where Romney scored big. In Guam, he was surprisingly uncontested; the 207 people who attended the caucus meeting were able to award all nine delegates to him.

In the Northern Marianas Islands, Mr. Romney notched a whopping 87.3 percent of the vote (848 total voting universe) and swept all nine of this entity’s delegates.

Finally, in the Virgin Islands, it was Ron Paul who placed first among the votes cast with 112, followed by Romney’s 101; Santorum recorded 23, and Gingrich finished last tallying just 18 votes. On the delegate count, however, Paul scores just one for sure as four will remain uncommitted, while the three official Republican Party delegates declared for Romney. Therefore, despite placing second, Romney looks to leave the Virgin Islands with four delegates compared to Paul’s one.

According to our estimate of the number of remaining delegates that Romney must secure for a first ballot victory at the Republican National Convention, the former Massachusetts governor needed to commit a minimum aggregate of 29 delegates over Saturday’s four nominating events. With his seven from Kansas, nine each from the Northern Marianas and Guam, and four from the Virgin Islands, he appears to have exactly hit that number. This still leaves his ability to attain the necessary 1,144 delegate commitments in doubt, however, as the estimates only produce the bare minimum victory count.

Turning back to Kansas, the 29,855 voters attending the caucus meetings was a 53 percent increase in turnout over 2008. Four years ago, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee claimed a 59.6 percent victory in the Sunflower State Caucuses, far out-distancing all other contenders. Though Romney failed to even reach 21 percent in Kansas this year, his performance was greatly improved over 2008 when he finished with only 3.3 percent of the vote.