Category Archives: Polling

Massachusetts Senate Polls Show Tight Race

On the heels of Public Policy Polling surveying the Massachusetts Senate special general election that showed Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) holding only a slim four-point, 44-40 percent, lead over private equity investor and former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez (R), MassINC and Suffolk University quickly released their data.

Though neither show the race as close as PPP, the MassINC poll lands in the same range as Public Policy Polling, while Suffolk gives Markey a double-digit lead. Over the course of the past two elections, PPP has proven to be the more reliable pollster than either of these other survey research entities, however.

The MassINC poll (May 5-6; 497 registered Massachusetts voters) conducted for WBUR-TV, the Boston region’s PBS affiliate, gives Markey only a 41-35 percent lead among those who stated a defined choice. When “leaners” are added, the Markey advantage increases to 46-38 percent.

Regionally, Gomez claims a big 47-28 percent (51-31 percent adding leaners) advantage in the western and central part of the state. Markey is up 41-40 percent in the area defined as the “outer suburbs,” the region beginning at the northeastern corner of the state on the New Hampshire border and swinging around the western end of Boston before wrapping its way back to the Atlantic Ocean south of the city. But, that slight edge is countered by a one-point 35-34 percent Gomez lead in the southeast, the territory including the cities of Brockton and Fall River, and then continuing all through the hook-shaped Cape Cod peninsula. Markey has a commanding 59-20 percent split in Boston and the city’s inner suburbs.

The Suffolk University poll (May 4-7; 500 likely Massachusetts voters) produces a much different result, forecasting Markey to have a substantial 52-35 percent advantage. The 17-point gap between the two is obviously far greater than PPP’s four-point margin and WBUR’s six-point spread.

According to MassINC’s Steve Koczela,  Continue reading >

Sanford Pulls Ahead

Public Policy Polling released the results of their final special election survey (May 4-5; 1,239 likely SC-1 voters) of the SC-1 race and they confirm that former governor Mark Sanford (R) now has the upward momentum heading into tomorrow’s vote. According to the data, Sanford has taken a 47-46 percent lead over Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D). Green Party candidate Eugene Platt posted 4 percent.

In the last PPP poll taken in mid-April, Busch had a 51-40 percent lead. Sanford’s favorability rating is still an upside down 43:54 percent, but that has improved from 38:56 percent. Busch’s rating dropped to 50:44 percent from 56:31 percent favorable to unfavorable. The key reason for her recession is being painted as a liberal. According to the data, by a margin of 47-4 percent, the respondents rated her as being too liberal. Forty-three percent said she is just “about right” ideologically.

Tomorrow’s race is back to a dead heat with Sanford now having the clear momentum. A Sanford victory tomorrow would be stunning, considering how far behind he had fallen just two weeks ago while enduring the National Republican Congressional Committee pulling out of his race.

Sanford Closing; Gomez Within Four

Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D)

Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D)

Tomorrow is Election Day in the SC-1 special and there are signals that former governor Mark Sanford (R) is rapidly closing against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch. Public Policy Polling is scheduled to release a final survey of the race later today. There was a local poll floating around last week that actually showed the race tied, but the data did not appear reliable so the results should be discarded.

But there is a sense that the trends are moving in Sanford’s direction. During the last week, senators Lindsey Graham (R) and Tim Scott (R) both endorsed the former governor and congressman, as did Gov. Nikki Haley (R). Normally, it is not particularly noteworthy when the party elected officials endorse a party nominee but, in this case with Sanford’s well-publicized problems and the National Republican Congressional Committee publicly disowning the race, the actions do show some positive momentum for the damaged candidate.

As always is the case with special elections, the turnout model will be key. A lower voter participation figure will likely favor the Democrat because the district is heavily Republican. Busch must still be considered the favorite, but the result may be closer than was predicted just a week ago.
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Markey Looking Strong; “Governor” Nelson?

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5)

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5)

As we turn into the home stretch for the special Democratic primary election to fill John Kerry’s vacated Senate seat in Massachusetts on Tuesday, Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) continues to appear well positioned for claiming his party’s nomination over fellow Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8).

A new Public Policy Polling brushfire survey (April 23-25; 563 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters) conducted for the League of Conservation Voters, an organization supporting Markey, continues to show the 36-year congressional veteran with a substantial lead. According to the PPP data, Markey posts a 50-36 percent margin over Lynch. The winner of the Democratic primary becomes the prohibitive favorite in the June 25 special general election.

Both candidates scored strong favorability ratings from the sampling universe. Markey registers 66:23 percent favorable to unfavorable; Lynch 50:32 percent.

Earlier in the week, the Western New England University Polling Institute released their survey (April 11-18; 480 registered Massachusetts voters; 270 Democratic primary voters) that showed  Continue reading >

Hickenlooper, Udall Cruising in Colorado

Public Policy Polling just completed a survey of the Colorado electorate (April 11-14; 500 registered Colorado voters) and found both Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper and Sen. Mark Udall in strong position for re-election.

PPP surveys tend to produce more negative numbers of the various politicians tested than most polling firms. The Colorado results are no exception, as all eight tested Republicans registered upside down personal favorability ratings when the respondents were queried about whether they had favorable or unfavorable opinions about each individual. When testing Gov. Hickenlooper and Sen. Udall, the question only pertained to their job performance. On that scale, both men performed well: Hickenlooper scored 53:44 percent positive to negative (though his negative jumped up from 26% as recorded on PPP’s November ’12 Colorado poll); Udall 50:33 percent.

Despite all of the Republicans registering poor favorability ratings, their ballot test standing when paired with either Hickenlooper or Udall are better than one might expect after perusing the initial data.

Former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO-7), who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006 after serving two terms in the House from a marginal suburban Denver district, comes within seven points of Hickenlooper, 43-50 percent, in a hypothetical general election. Attorney General John Suthers (R) scores 39-49 percent against the governor. Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO-4) tallies exactly the same result as Suthers. Rep. Scott Tipton (R-CO-3) also registers in the same range, behind 40-50 percent. Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO-6) does a bit worse, trailing 41-52 percent.

If these same Republicans were to challenge Sen. Udall, the results prove similar. Despite Beauprez scoring a 15:34 percent personal favorability index and Udall registering a 50:33 percent job approval rating, the Republican trails the senator only 41-48 percent. Suthers is down to Udall 38-50 percent; Gardner 39-49 percent; Tipton 37-50 percent; and Tancredo 39-51 percent.  Continue reading >