Category Archives: Polling

Age Matters in the NJ Senate Race: Booker Way Ahead

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D)

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D)

Quinnipiac University polled New Jersey voters including a subset of self-identified Democratic primary participants (Jan. 15-21; 1,647 registered New Jersey voters; 616 Democratic primary voters), questioning them about a proposed nomination battle between Sen. Frank Lautenberg and Newark Mayor Cory Booker. So far, Booker has said he will defer to the elder senator, but has also made it clear that he wants to run for the Senate in 2014. Lautenberg is expected to retire, and numbers such as the ones Quinnipiac produced should hasten his departure.

According to the data, Booker would defeat Lautenberg 51-30 percent if the statewide Democratic primary were held in this current time period. Perhaps even more troubling for the senator is the fact that he trails Booker by more than 20 points even though his job approval is positive. Concerns about his age — Lautenberg will be 90 at the time of the next election – are clearly weighing upon the electorate.
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Netanyahu’s Hold Tenuous; New Franken Polling

Looking at an important election beyond our borders, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud-Beytenu Party seemed to be holding steady in first place with 31 seats, but fewer than the 32-35 range that was projected. In the 2009 election, Likud scored 27 seats, but after officially joining forces with Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman the combined total expanded to 42 of the 120 seats in Israel’s Knesset. Netanyahu was then able to add other center-right parties to form the current government.

This time the eventual coalition will look much different. Some even believe disgruntled Likud supporters may look for a leadership alternative to Netanyahu. The key to forming the next coalition will be surprise second-place finisher Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, which earned 19 seats. The Labor Party, predicted to finish second, placed third, winning 17 seats. Netanyahu has already asked Lapid to join his government, and preliminary indications are that he will. With the center-left parties scoring either 58 or 59 seats, however, the Prime Minister has a very thin margin from which to form a government. As the leader whose party finished first in the balloting, Netanyahu has 42 days to form a governing coalition.

Voter turnout was high, estimated at 66.6 percent of the eligible electorate, meaning almost 3.77 million participants. This Continue reading >

Gun Control: Dueling Pollsters

Gun Control Polls

Gun Control Polls

Two national pollsters went into the field over the same period with virtually the same sample size, but derived very different conclusions about a consistent subject matter. Both Gallup (Jan. 17; 1,021 adults) and Rasmussen Reports (Jan. 16-17; 1,000 adults) asked questions about the current state of gun control, but did so from opposite perspectives. Not surprisingly, the resulting answers and underlying premise varied widely.

Gallup asked about Pres. Obama’s new gun control proposals, but did not provide the respondents with any specifics. Their question: “… as you may know, yesterday President Obama proposed a set of new laws designed to reduce gun violence in the United States. From what you know or have read about this, would you want your representative in Congress to vote for or against these new laws?” As a point of clarification, though Gallup refers to the Obama proposals as “laws,” the legislation has not yet been officially introduced nor passed.

The Gallup sampling universe responded 53-41 percent in favor of enacting the Obama proposals.
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New National Gun Control Data

AR-15

AR-15

Three key points are notable from a new nationwide gun control survey.

First, the number of people who believe that controlling gun ownership is more important than protecting the right of Americans to own guns has changed since the Sandy Hook Elementary School tragedy, driven by the event itself, the massive amount of media attention and the attention given to it by politicians — but not by a great degree.

Second, gender is the key driver in gun control politics.

Third, the political party breakdown reports some surprising numbers.
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Hillary Flies High on a Low-Flying Poll

A new Public Policy Polling national survey (Jan. 3-6; 1,100 registered voters; 400 Democratic and 536 regular Republican primary participants) projects Hillary Clinton to be in the strongest position of all potential 2016 presidential candidates from either party, but the poll has methodological flaws.

According to the data, Clinton would easily capture the Democratic nomination, scoring a 57-16 percent margin over Vice President Joe Biden. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren notched 4 percent, followed by Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley at 3 percent, while Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner tallied 2 percent apiece.

The poll then paired only Clinton against a myriad of Republican potential candidates such as former vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Clinton beats them all in hypothetical individual ballot test match-ups, but early results such as these are inconsequential and particularly so in this poll. Of the aforementioned, Christie fares best coming within two points of Clinton, behind 42-44 percent. All of the others trail her in double-digits.
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Poll: Alarm Bells for Lautenberg

Fairleigh Dickinson University, whose poll (Jan. 2-6; 700 registered New Jersey voters; 336 self-identified Democrats or leaning Democratic) we quoted earlier in the week pertaining to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s re-election, now releases the US Senate portion of their data. For veteran Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), the news can either be taken as being a bitter pill or simply a wake-up call.

Background

Lautenberg, who will be 90 years of age at the next election, came from the business world where he was the chairman and CEO of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. In 1982, using his vast personal wealth earned through years of having a major position within the company, Lautenberg ran for his first political office, that of United States Senate. He scored a 51-48 percent win over the better-known Rep. Millicent Fenwick (R-NJ-5), at the time a 72-year-old four-term congresswoman who was often seen smoking her trademark pipe. Lautenberg was easily re-elected twice, but then decided to retire from politics in 2000.

Less than two years later, when Sen. Bob Torricelli (D) met with scandal and appeared headed for defeat, the New Jersey Democratic leadership forced him to resign well after the 2002 primary. Armed with a favorable political ruling from a Democratic state Supreme Court, the party leaders successfully installed Lautenberg to replace Torricelli. He went on to save the seat for the Democrats that year, and was re-elected without significant challenge in 2008.
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Polling Updates: New Jersey, Virginia

Gov. Chris Christie

Gov. Chris Christie

New Jersey

Fairleigh Dickinson University surveyed the New Jersey electorate (Jan. 2-6; 700 registered New Jersey voters), testing Gov. Chris Christie (R) against all comers.

For starters, the governor’s job approval rating remains in the stratosphere, as it has since Hurricane Sandy hit the state. Voters almost immediately began communicating positive impressions of the way he coordinated delivering aid to assist those suffering from the natural disaster. According to the data, a whopping 73 percent of the respondents give Christie’s job performance a positive rating, including Continue reading >