Category Archives: Polling

Biden: Not Quite Yet

Oct. 21, 2015 — Twitter has been chirping recently with “insider” tweets that Vice President Joe Biden had decided to enter the 2016 presidential campaign. The Washington Post even ran a draft article quoting unnamed sources denoted with a notation of “XXX” that Biden had made his final decision. It wasn’t long before the editors quickly withdrew the piece, claiming it had been inadvertently placed. Hours later it was determined that the VP is not yet launching his official presidential effort.

The decision is a tough one because Biden is clearly not in a position to simply announce for president and expect everyone to flock to him. In fact, he has several major obstacles to overcome to win the nomination and it is doubtful that he can.

First, all of the early national polling suggests his entrance in the race would only earn him support in the high teens to low 20s, slightly trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT), and about 20-plus points behind front-runner Hillary Clinton.

The Monmouth University poll results, for example, released only Monday and fielded after the first Democratic presidential debate (Oct. 15-18; 1,012 adults, 340 self-identified Democrats or Democratic Party leaners), is typical of the numbers we see.

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The Ohio Senate Race:
A Strange Beginning

Oct. 16, 2015 — So far, the Ohio Senate campaign has begun as the new election cycle’s most peculiar contest. Sen. Rob Portman (R), seeking a second term, is leading in every aspect of the campaign but the polls. According to the last four surveys, former Gov. Ted Strickland (D) has a small edge over the Ohio senator, who was previously the Director of the US Office of Management and Budget, and a Cincinnati congressman.

Just last week the Harstad Strategic Group, polling for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, released early September data giving Strickland a 46-43 percent lead over Sen. Portman. Interestingly, Quinnipiac University, polling at the end of September and into early October, found exactly the same split: again Strickland topping Portman, 46-43 percent.

But, that’s not all. In Quinnipiac’s August version, they posted Strickland to a 44-41 percent advantage following their late June study that gave the former governor an even larger 46-40 percent margin. It was commonly viewed at the time that this first data finding Strickland with the edge was potentially an anomaly, but seeing other findings that supported the original result requires further examination before such a conclusion could be drawn. The last public poll to show Portman ahead came in early June from Public Policy Polling. In that survey the senator held a 43-41 percent lead.

The ballot test tilting toward Strickland makes little sense when we see that the same polls reported the incumbent’s personal favorability and job approval scores as being good. While the June Q-Poll found Strickland up six points, Portman scored a job approval of 49:28 percent and a personal rating of 43:21 percent.

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Louisiana’s Vitter in Trouble

Oct. 16, 2015 — The latest Louisiana gubernatorial campaign survey, from KPLC Television/ Raycom Media and released Wednesday, projects Sen. David Vitter (R) to be in real trouble in his quest to become the state’s chief executive, which is reflected in the above negative ad (see the Vitter campaign response below).

The 2015 governor’s race – voters will go to the polls to decide the jungle primary on Oct. 24, with the top two advancing to a Nov. 21 general election – has been extensively polled. Sen. Vitter, despite winning two previous statewide elections and both without run-offs, has never polled particularly well but excelled when the actual votes were counted. He wasn’t projected to win the 1999 special congressional election, nor did surveys predict his outright win in the 2004 Senate race. But, these latest numbers appear to reveal tangible problems for the incumbent Senator in attempting to transfer to state office.

The KPLC/Raycom survey (Oct. 7-13; 602 registered Louisiana voters, 400 likely gubernatorial primary voters) finds Vitter trailing state Rep. John Bel Edwards (D) in jungle primary ballot tests. This is not particularly unusual because four other September statewide primary election studies from three different pollsters also find the senator trailing his chief Democratic opponent.

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Dems Debate While Biden Postpones

Oct. 15, 2015 — While the announced Democratic candidates faced each other in their first official forum at the Wynn Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas Tuesday night, Vice President Joe Biden continued to indicate that he won’t commit to making a decision about whether to enter the presidential contest until at least month’s end.

The continual postponing of the eventual candidacy decision suggests that Biden won’t enter the race. While he does have people around the country who would quickly come to his aid should he begin to construct a campaign, he is simply running out of time to qualify for the Democratic primary ballot separately in all 50 states if he were to begin from scratch in November. Though it would not be impossible for him to qualify, his task becomes immeasurably more difficult.

Waiting until next month to get in the race, when the first vote would be just three months away in Iowa followed by a string of primary and caucus participants casting ballots in non-stop fashion in 56 additional entities through mid-June, would add tremendous pressure to a Biden for President effort. The timing would force the vice president to immediately overcome major campaign logistical obstacles, such as the aforementioned ballot qualification process, hiring staff, developing a fundraising operation, crafting a campaign theme and message, etc. Additionally, he would have to spend virtually all available energy and staff time attempting to take down former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT), both of whom are well entrenched in Democratic primary polling.

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Hillary’s Rebounding Numbers

Oct. 14, 2015 — Several new polls were released at the beginning of this week displaying national and individual state Democratic primary results. All find former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton improving her position within the party nomination framework. Conversely, the cumulative data’s biggest surprise is Vice President Joe Biden’s relatively poor standing.

Biden’s deficit may be large enough to possibly preclude his entrance into the race. With him trailing even Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) in more places than not, according to this recent wave of publicly released polling, it seems the late-starting Biden would have a difficult time eclipsing Clinton if he were to officially launch his candidacy.

The new national CBS/New York Times poll (Oct. 4-8; 1,251 adults; 1,038 registered voters, 343 Democratic primary voters) finds Clinton leading Sen. Sanders and the vice president 46-27-16 percent, respectively. Clinton still falling below the 50 percent mark notwithstanding, Sanders dropping under 30 percent and Biden failing to even reach 20 percent is a clear indication of her relative strength.

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The Speaker Race and its Effect on Elections; Pennsylvania
and Ohio Senate Data

Oct. 12, 2015 — Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA-23) surprise announcement that he has dropped out of the Speaker’s race was, of course, big news at the end of last week, but how will the change in House leadership affect the 2016 general election?

To a large extent, it’s too early to tell, especially with the new Speaker election not yet being scheduled and without knowing the identities of all the eventual candidates. Will the McCarthy withdrawal have much of an effect concerning how Republicans fare at the polls at the end of next year? No. But certainly the eventual John Boehner replacement will have a great deal of influence over how the House Republican campaigns unfold.

At this writing, there does seem to be a push, led by outgoing Speaker Boehner, to convince Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI-1), chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee and the 2012 Republican Vice Presidential nominee, to enter the internal Speaker’s campaign. At this point, Ryan continues to reject all such suggestions, but he does appear to be one of the few members who has a chance of uniting the Republicans in order to capture the 218 votes needed for victory.

With Ryan’s drive to enact economic policy, a much better chance would exist for him to develop an agenda for Republican candidates nationally to promote and rally around. Having such a platform would help crystallize the campaign and ensure the maximum number of House GOP electoral victories. No agenda has been present in the past two campaigns, which precludes more positive, issue-oriented campaigning.

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Swing State Surprises for Trump

Oct. 9, 2015 — Quinnipiac University again surveyed the presidential field with their “Swing State Poll” series, and while many of the results tell a familiar story about the numbers surrounding Donald Trump’s performance, the support question responses should be giving the leading Republican presidential candidate cause for concern. The data projects Trump leading the GOP nomination battle in all three of the states in the poll, but the favorable conclusions end with this point. The remaining results find the flamboyant international businessman’s political standing beginning to unravel.

During the Sept. 25 through Oct. 5 period, the Q-Poll simultaneously surveyed the important states of Florida (1,173 registered Florida voters; 461 likely Republican primary voters, 411 likely Democratic primary voters), Ohio (1,180 registered Ohio voters; 433 likely Republican primary voters, 396 likely Democratic primary voters), and Pennsylvania (1,049 registered Pennsylvania voters; 427 likely Republican primary voters, 442 likely Democratic primary voters).

In all three places, Trump posted preference numbers between 23 and 28 percent. Dr. Ben Carson sweeps the second position, in a consistent range from 16-18 percent. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) finishes third in Florida (14 percent) and Pennsylvania (12 percent), while Gov. John Kasich places third (13 percent) in his native Ohio.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush continues to experience major polling problems, here dropping to a campaign-low four percent in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. In his home state of Florida, he drops all the way to fourth position, registering only 12 percent within the Republican universe that twice spring boarded him to convincing victories in the Sunshine State governor’s race (1998, 2002).

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