Category Archives: House

Warning Signs in Va., N.D.

Two GOP Senate candidates who are probably re-assessing their respective post-primary campaign strategies are former Virginia senator George Allen and North Dakota Rep. Rick Berg (R-AL). Both easily won their nomination elections on Tuesday night, but even their individual landslide victory margins are arguably under-performances. Both men finished with 66 percent of the vote on June 12, but for two consensus party candidates, their base support number should have been higher. A better position from which to launch each general election campaign would have been in the 75th percentile.

Allen faces former governor Tim Kaine (D) in the Old Dominion, and the race has been in the toss-up category since the middle of 2011 and continues to languish with neither candidate showing any signs of breaking out. The Republican primary vote tells us that Allen still needs to tack right to completely firm up his GOP base for what promises to be a bruising general election in a presidential battleground state.

Rep. Berg, whose North Dakota electorate will likely support Mitt Romney over President Obama by a substantial margin, also needs to cement his political base to the maximum level in order to take advantage of what should be a regional GOP tide.

Berg’s 66 percent of the vote in his battle against frequent candidate Duane Sand also warrants attention, because in addition to the primary result, we now see a third general election poll that projects him to be trailing former attorney general Heidi Heitkamp. The latest survey, (Mason-Dixon Polling & Research; June 4-6; 625 registered North Dakota voters) gives the new official Democratic nominee a one point, 47-46 percent, razor-thin November edge. Additionally, the primary prediction done by Mason-Dixon actually placed Berg further ahead of where he finished on Tuesday. The poll showed him beating Sand 73-16 percent, but the actual result was 66-34 percent.

Warning signs, indeed.

A Look at Key June 12 Results

In addition to the Arizona election noted in our previous blog post, several key states hosted primary and run-off elections last night. Two Democratic run-offs were held in Arkansas, and freshman incumbent Rick Crawford (R-AR-1) and open-seat nominee Tom Cotton (R-AR-4) now have official Democratic challengers.

In the 1st District, a seat made even more Democratic in redistricting, District Attorney Scott Ellington slipped past state Rep. Clark Hall 51-49 percent, despite the latter having the financial advantage. This will be an interesting contest since the 1st District is even more Democratic, but Arkansas figures to be one of President Obama’s worst states. The evolution of this campaign will be worth watching.

In retiring Rep. Mike Ross’ 4th District, state Sen. Gene Jeffress romped to an easy 61-39 percent win, despite primary first place finisher Q. Byrum Hurst outspending him. Jeffress will now face Cotton in the general election. Despite the lopsided run-off win last night, this district is a prime GOP conversion opportunity.

In Maine, state Sen. Cynthia Dill (D) scored a strong 45-35-12 percent victory over former secretary of state Matt Dunlap and state Rep. Jon Hinck, respectively. Dill will face the GOP winner, former secretary of state Charlie Summers, and Independent former governor Angus King. In Dill, the Democrats have a candidate who will run a credible campaign, which, ironically, will help Summers. The only way the Republicans have a chance in a Maine statewide race is to win a close three-way race, and the groundwork is now laid for such a contest. King is still the overwhelming favorite, but it is the Dill campaign that will now help determine how this race progresses in November. This campaign has the potential of becoming quite interesting.

The North Dakota Republican electorate chose a congressional nominee different from the party-endorsed candidate. Former at-large congressional nominee Kevin Cramer upended public service commissioner and Republican convention-endorsed candidate Brian Kalk by a 55-45 percent score. Cramer will face former state representative Pam Gulleson who was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the open seat in the November election.

In South Carolina’s new 7th District, as expected, former lieutenant governor Andre Bauer and Horry County Commission Chairman Tom Rice advanced from the primary and will decide the Republican nomination in a June 26 run-off election. Bauer placed first with 32 percent of the vote as compared to Rice’s 27 percent, but the former’s margin may not be enough to hold the lead in the secondary campaign. On the Democratic side, former Georgia state representative Gloria Tinubu scored an outright 52 percent win over attorney Preston Brittain and three others. Tinubu resigned her seat in the Georgia legislature earlier in the year to come to South Carolina and run for the state’s new congressional district, an unusual situation to say the least. The Republican nominee will be the heavy favorite to win the seat in November.

Finally, in Virginia, former senator George Allen (R) was renominated with a somewhat disappointing 66 percent of the vote for the right to reclaim the seat he lost six years ago. The ex-senator defeated three minor GOP candidates. Allen will now face former governor Tim Kaine (D) in a general election campaign that promises to go down to the wire.

Barber Wins the AZ-8 Special

Democratic candidate Ron Barber, the former district director to resigned Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ-8) won the right to serve the balance of his ex-boss’ term as he upended GOP nominee Jesse Kelly 52-45 percent in an election that saw a voter participation rate of more than 200,000. The Barber victory was an impressive one in what has proven to be a marginal southeastern Arizona district. Barber also was wounded in the January 2011 shooting rampage that killed six and left Ms. Giffords with debilitating wounds, a condition that eventually forced her to leave the House.

Though Barber won last night, he likely has not seen the last of Kelly. The two will now face competition for their respective party nominations in the Aug. 28 primary election for new District 2. Martha McSally, who like Kelly is an Iraq War veteran, placed second in the special election primary and figures to be the former nominee’s toughest challenger. Barber faces state Rep. Matt Heinz in what could be an interesting primary for the newly elected representative. The winners will advance to the general election in a district that is slightly more Democratic than the current District 8, but still very winnable for a Republican candidate. On the eve of his first election, Barber has to be viewed as a decided favorite certainly in the Democratic primary, and also for the general election.

Arizona’s Special Election Today

The race to fill the congressional seat Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8-D) resigned earlier in the year will be decided today. The two major party candidates in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District are Giffords’ former district director, Ron Barber (D) – who was shot along with the congresswoman during the January 2011 rampage that killed six people – and Republican former Iraq War veteran Jesse Kelly. Kelly finished just two points behind Giffords as her 2010 general election opponent.

By most accounts tonight’s finish will be close, although Public Policy Polling has just released a survey (June 9-10; 1,058 registered AZ-8 voters via automated interviews) that gives Barber a rather large 53-41 percent advantage. The poll, however, does not accurately reflect the voting populace. The polling sample is comprised of 42 percent Democratic voters, 36 percent Republican, and 22 percent Independent. According to the Arizona 8th District voter registration statistics, Republicans have 37.6 percent of the registered voters, Democrats only 31.5 percent, and Independents 30.2 percent. Therefore, this poll over-represents Democrats by a whopping 10.5 percentage points, understates Republican strength by 1.6 points, and Independents by a large 7.8 percentage deficit. Therefore, the partisan complexion is almost a full 20 points away from the actual totals, making the results suspect.

Tonight’s winner serves the balance of Ms. Giffords’ current term. Both men have filed to run in the new District 2 regular election, and each will face opposition on Aug. 28 in their respective partisan primaries. The eventual nominees will then, obviously, be elected for the new full term on the Nov. 6 national general election voting day.

Selecting Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ Successor in Arizona

Voters in southeast Arizona go to the polls tomorrow to choose a replacement for resigned Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D). For the Democrats, Ron Barber, the former congresswoman’s district director who was wounded with her in the January 2011 shooting melee, opposes 2010 GOP nominee Jesse Kelly. Kelly came within two points of unseating Giffords in the last regular election. A close election is forecast.

The winner will serve the balance of Giffords’ term and then seek re-election in the new 2nd District, as designed in the Arizona redistricting plan. Both will have regular election primary opposition even though one will be the incumbent. State Rep. Matt Heinz and two minor candidates will challenge Barber for the Democratic nomination, while Kelly will again face Martha McSally who placed second to him in the special election primary. This campaign is competitive tomorrow, likely for the Aug. 28 primary, and in November, too.