Category Archives: House

Inmate Scores 40% vs. Obama in W.Va.; N.C., Wis. Updates

West Virginia

Perhaps the biggest surprise of last night’s primaries came in West Virginia, where Keith Russell Judd, an inmate in a Beaumont, Texas federal prison currently serving a 17-year sentence, scored a full 40 percent of the vote against President Obama in the West Virginia Democratic primary. This clearly suggests that West Virginia will be a solid Mitt Romney state in the fall.

North Carolina

A lot of action also occurred in the North Carolina primary. In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton posted a 45-38 percent victory over former Rep. Bob Etheridge. Dalton will now face 2008 gubernatorial nominee and former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) in the general election. Gov. Bev Perdue (D) is retiring after one term.

In open seats, former state Sen. Robert Pittenger and Mecklenberg County Commissioner Jim Pendergraph will square off in a June 26 Republican run-off election for retiring Rep. Sue Myrick’s 9th District. The Charlotte suburban seat will go to eventual GOP nominee in the general election. In the Asheville-based 11th CD, being vacated by the retiring Rep. Heath Shuler (D), two non-elected officials, businessmen Mark Meadows and Vance Patterson will battle each other in the Republican run-off. The winner faces Shuler’s former chief of staff, Hayden Rogers, who won the Democratic nod. Redistricting makes the GOP nominee the general election favorite. Finally, in new District 13, former US Attorney George Holding won the Republican nomination outright and will be the heavy favorite in November.

Turning to challenger primaries, state Sen. David Rouzer won a see-saw Republican primary battle with 2010 nominee Ilario Pantano. He now faces Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre in what will be a highly competitive general election. In Rep. Kissell’s 8th District, a run-off will occur between business consultant and former congressional aide Richard Hudson and ex-Iredell County Commissioner Scott Keadle. Hudson, a first-time candidate, came within eight points of winning outright. Kissell is highly endangered in the general election.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, Democrats again nominated Milwaukee mayor and former congressman Tom Barrett to face Gov. Scott Walker (R) in a June 5 recall election. Barrett easily defeated Dane County ex-Executive Kathleen Falk by a 58-34 percent count. The Walker-Barrett campaign is a re-match from 2010, when the Republican won 52-46 percent.

Lugar Trounced in Indiana

The final weeks of the Indiana Senatorial campaign showed six-term Sen. Dick Lugar spiraling downward in his Republican primary battle with state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, and it ended last night with an emphatic 61-39 percent victory in the challenger’s favor. Turnout exceeded 665,000 voters, which is high. This is nowhere near the 1.2 million plus voters who participated in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, but much more than the 412,000 who voted in the Republican presidential primary of that same year.

The general election will now feature Mourdock and Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN-2) who was unopposed in last night’s Democratic primary. The Republican outcome now suggests a competitive race here in the fall, though Mourdock is a much stronger candidate than those conservative challengers who defeated 2010 Republican incumbents or nomination favorites in various states, and then proceeded to lose their respective general elections.

Though President Obama became the first Democrat to carry Indiana since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, it does not appear the state will be a major target in 2012. In fact, Indiana isn’t even on the first list of states where the President’s campaign is buying television advertising time. That translates to less of a boost for Donnelly as we turn toward November.

The biggest Indiana surprise of the evening, however, was former Rep. David McIntosh (R), the favorite coming into Indiana’s open 5th District primary race, failing to win his party’s nomination. He lost a 30-29 percent decision to ex-US Attorney Susan Brooks. Ms. Brooks is also an Indianapolis former deputy mayor. She will be the heavy favorite to defeat state Rep. Scott Reske who won the Democratic nomination.

As expected, former state Rep. Luke Messer was an easy winner in the 6th District Republican open seat primary. He becomes the prohibitive favorite to replace Rep. Mike Pence in November. Pence, unopposed tonight, is now the state’s official GOP gubernatorial nominee. In Donnelly’s open 2nd District, as expected, Democratic businessman Brendan Mullen will face former state Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) in a competitive general election. Because of redistricting, Walorski has to be considered at least a slight favorite. All other Indiana incumbents won renomination last night.

Primary Preview: North Carolina

The House races dominate tomorrow’s North Carolina primary election from a national perspective, but the Democratic gubernatorial vote is one of the main turnout drivers for the state’s voters.

Governor: Incumbent Bev Perdue (D) is retiring after one term, upon deciding that her lagging approval numbers relegated her to an underdog re-election position. This sets up a Democratic primary largely between Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and former Rep. Bob Etheridge. The main question is whether one of these two men will secure the 40 percent-plus one vote necessary to avoid a June 26 run-off. Regardless of the outcome tomorrow or next month, the eventual Democrat nominee will begin the general election as a decided underdog to ex-Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, who will cruise to outright victory in the Republican primary.
NC-1: The new 1st CD, an African-American majority district, is again safe for five-term Rep. G. K. Butterfield (D).
NC-2: Rep. Renee Ellmers (R) was a surprise winner in 2010 against then-Rep. Etheridge, and now stands for re-election in a much more favorable Republican district. This seat soars from a 47 percent McCain score to one that voted 56 percent Republican in 2008. The new 2nd should be safe for Ellmers despite her gaining 70 percent new territory.
NC-3: The new 3rd, now encompassing much more of the North Carolina coast than the current NC-3 and about a quarter new in configuration, is another safe Republican district. Rep. Walter Jones Jr. (R), who strays further from the House Republican leadership than any other GOP congressman, could be vulnerable to a primary challenge … but not this year.
NC-4: Originally, this seat was drawn as a Democratic pairing between Rep. David Price (D) and Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC-13). After saying he would run against Price, it became obvious that Miller felt he was in an inferior political position in the new 4th and he decided to withdraw. The lack of primary opposition means Price will easily win re-election.
NC-5: Although she picks up almost 30 percent new territory, the new Winston-Salem anchored 5th District is again secure for Rep. Virginia Foxx (R).
NC-6: Eighty-one year-old Rep. Howard Coble (R), originally elected in 1984, is again headed for re-election. The seat performed at a 56 percent McCain rate, but is 57 percent new territory for Coble. Two locally well-known candidates are challenging Coble in the GOP primary, but they have raised little money and have negative personal opinion polling scores. Coble should have little trouble securing renomination and will be the prohibitive favorite in the general election.
NC-7: Redistricting was not kind to moderate Rep. Mike McIntyre (D), another vulnerable member of the Blue Dog Coalition. Thirty-six percent of the Wilmington-based 7th District is new to McIntyre, and the Republican complexion grows from 52 percent McCain to 58 percent McCain. Tomorrow, McIntyre will know if he will face 2010 GOP nominee Ilario Pantano or state Sen. David Rowser. One of the two will likely win the primary outright tomorrow night and quickly enter into a toss-up race with the eight-term congressman.
NC-8: Two-term Rep. Larry Kissell (D) is one of the biggest redistricting victims and will likely go into the general election as the underdog. The district flips from 53 percent Obama to 57 percent McCain and loses most its African-American voters and their exceedingly loyal Democratic voting patterns. The Republican primary, among five candidates, is likely to advance to a run-off probably between former congressional aide Richard Hudson and ex-Iredell County commissioner Scott Keadle.
NC-9: Rep. Sue Myrick (R) retirement sets up an 11-way Republican primary for the new NC-9, which will be a safe Republican seat. Count on a run-off here with the winner becoming the new congressman.
NC-10: Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) takes on almost half a district in new territory, and because of this the GOP will likely win the 11th District.
NC-11: The western NC seat is another redistricting casualty, as Rep. Heath Shuler’s (D) seat now becomes the most Republican Tar Heel State district. This is the reason the three-term, 40-year-old congressman has opted for retirement. Eight Republican candidates are in this race, and another run-off is likely here. Democrats are not going down without a fight, though, quite possibly in the person of Shuler chief-of-staff Hayden Rogers.
NC-12: The 12th is possibly the most famous of Voting Rights Act seats after enduring legal challenges in every decade since it was created. Rep. Mel Watt (D) will continue to win here as long as he stays in the game.
NC-13: Everything changes about the 13th District – from its location to voting preferences. Previously a safe Democratic seat under Rep. Brad Miller (D), the new 13th will send a Republican to Washington likely for the entire ensuing decade. The GOP race is between former US Attorney George Holding, and Wake County Commissioner and ex-Raleigh mayor Paul Coble. There is a good chance one of these two wins outright tomorrow night, which is likely his ticket to Washington, DC. The general election appears non-competitive.

Our Indiana Primary Preview

Tuesday features two congressional primary elections: Indiana and North Carolina. Today, we preview the Indiana races; on Monday, North Carolina.

Governor: Incumbent Mitch Daniels (R) is term-limited, so an open-seat contest will occur in the fall. Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN-6) and former state House Speaker John Gregg (D) will be the general election combatants, with Pence beginning the race as a heavy favorite.

Senate: We all know that six-term Sen. Richard Lugar (R), who ran unopposed just six years ago, is in the fight for his political life against fellow Republican state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. The race has been hard-fought, with each man and their outside group supporters running a spate of negative ads. The focal points have been Lugar straying too far from his conservative base, the fact that he does not have a residence in Indiana, and that he has lost touch with his Hoosier State roots. Lugar counters with criticism of the way Mourdock has managed both the taxpayers’ public funds and his office.

The key to determining a victor in this contest, as is most often the case, is turnout. Indiana has an open primary law, meaning any registered voter, regardless of previous primary voting history, may participate in the party primary of his or her choice. Therefore, with little in the way of contested campaigns in the Democratic primary, it is likely the preponderance of voters will choose to cast their ballot on the Republican side. This could affect the Senate race in two ways: first, Democrats and Independents supportive of Lugar can vote for him and potentially provide enough of a margin to overcome Mourdock’s strong support among conservatives; second, activist Democrats, believing that Mourdock would be the weaker candidate in the general election against consensus Dem candidate Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN-2), could vote for the challenger and potentially weaken the non-Republican support that Lugar might attract.

Tuesday will host a close race with several uncontrollable factors positioned to decide the final outcome. It’s too close to call.

IN-1: Rep. Peter Visclosky (D) is unopposed in the Democratic primary.
IN-2: This is an open seat, with Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) running for Senate. The open seat battle will be hot and heavy in November, but Tuesday’s vote looks secure for Republican former state Rep. Jackie Walorski and Democratic businessman Brendan Mullen.
IN-3: Freshman Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) is unopposed in Tuesday’s Republican primary and will find out which of six Democrats will win the right to oppose him in November. This should be a relatively easy re-election run for Stutzman.
IN-4: Freshman Rep. Todd Rokita (R), Indiana’s former Secretary of State, gains 35 percent new territory but the Obama number is only 45 percent. He is safe in November.
IN-5: Rep. Dan Burton (R) is retiring, making this an open seat. With 30-year veteran Rep. Burton not seeking a 16th term, eight Republicans, including former congressman and 2000 gubernatorial nominee David McIntosh (R-IN-2), vie for the new 5th District. McIntosh is the clear favorite to win the nomination. Democratic state Rep. Scott Reske is favored for his party’s nomination.
IN-6: Rep. Mike Pence (R) is running for governor, making this an open seat. Seven Republicans and five Democrats are running for the right to succeed Pence, with Tuesday’s GOP nominee becoming the prohibitive favorite in a district that gave 55 percent of its votes to John McCain in 2008. Former state representative and Republican Party executive director Luke Messer is the leading candidate for the nomination.
IN-7: Three Democrats, seven Republicans, and two Independents are opposing Rep. Andre Carson (D), but that’s rather irrelevant. The congressman will win again in November.
IN-8: First-term southwestern district congressman, Rep. Larry Bucshon (R), faces a Republican primary opponent, Kristi Risk, who held Bucshon to only a 33-29 percent victory margin two years ago. But Bucshon is the favorite in a district that contains 88 percent of his previous constituency. Democrats will nominate former state representative and broadcaster Dave Crooks.
IN-9: Five Democrats, none of whom had even raised $100,000 prior to the two-week financial reporting deadline, are fighting for the right to take on yet another Indiana freshman congressman, southeastern district Rep. Todd Young (R). This shouldn’t be much of a contest in the fall, as Rep. Young is cruising toward a second term.

Will the Blue Dogs Become Extinct?

The defeat of Pennsylvania Reps. Jason Altmire (D-PA-4) and Tim Holden (D-PA-17) in last Tuesday’s Democratic primary election forced the Blue Dog Coalition to absorb two more hits. Looking ahead to the general election, the already decimated caucus appears to be staring at even more adversity.

In an era when both parties are nominating doctrinaire ideological candidates, the ranks of contenders who describe themselves as moderates are shrinking. Centrist Republicans have grown a bit thanks to the GOP sweep in 2010 but are also poised to decline in this election as 17 of their 54 members are either retiring or facing competitive opponents.

After the 1994 Republican landslide that gave the GOP control of the House for the first time since 1948, the moderate Democrats decided to form their own official House caucus and did so under an unusual name. Because they were inspired by the paintings of Cajun artist George Rodrique, who often pictured animated blue dogs with deep, yellow eyes, and because of the common southern political phrase, “yellow dog Democrats” the group found its identity. A yellow dog Democrat, it is said, is an individual who will vote for a yellow dog before supporting a Republican. Saying that the extreme positions of both parties where “choking them (the moderate Democratic House members) blue,” the “Blue Dog Coalition” came into being.

When 2009 began, the Blue Dog Coalition numbered 54 members. At the end of the 111th Congress, right after the 2010 election, the coalition saw exactly half of its members (27) either retire or fail in their bids for re-election; mostly the latter. With the early 2011 congressional resignation of Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA-36) and congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ-8) following suit at the beginning of 2012, the caucus now numbers 25. Accounting for retirements, primary defeats, and possible general election defeats, the membership could potentially total only 10 at the beginning of the next Congress.

So far, four Blue Dog congressmen – Dan Boren (D-OK-2), Dennis Cardoza (D-CA-18), Mike Ross (D-AR-4) and Heath Shuler (D-NC-11) – have already announced their retirement plans. And, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN-2) is running for the Senate. As mentioned above, Reps. Altmire and Holden already have lost their primaries, meaning that the effective caucus membership eligible to return next year is 18.

But the leakage is likely to continue. An additional eight members face highly competitive re-election fights. For Reps. Joe Baca (D-CA-43), John Barrow (D-GA-12), Leonard Boswell (D-IA-3), Ben Chandler (D-KY-6), Larry Kissell (D-NC-8), Jim Matheson (D-UT-2), Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7) and Mike Michaud (D-ME-2) either renomination or re-election is no certainty.

Furthermore, of the 11 candidates the Blue Dog Coalition has so far endorsed, none, today, are favored to win their elections. They are:

AR-4: Clark Hall (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
FL-2: Leonard Bembry (D) vs. Rep. Steve Southerland (R) – Underdog
IN-2: Brendan Mullen (D) vs. Jackie Walorski (R) – Underdog
IN-8: Dave Crooks (D) vs. Rep. Larry Bucshon (R) — Underdog
MI-1: Gary McDowell (D) vs. Rep. Dan Benishek (R) – Toss-up
NC-11: Hayden Rogers (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
ND-AL: Pam Gulleson (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
OH-6: Former Rep. Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Rep. Bill Johnson (R) – Toss-up
OK-2: Rob Wallace (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
SC-7: Ted Vick (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
TX-14: Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) vs. R nominee – Toss-up (at best)

With eight of its members in tough races and no guaranteed winners among the 11 candidates the coalition has officially endorsed, it appears that the Blue Dogs are headed for another difficult political year. Though polling respondents often like to define themselves as “middle of the road” or “moderate,” it is evident from the electoral results that the majority of voters don’t choose in such a manner.

Questioning the Reliability of Univ. of New Hampshire Polls

Over the years, the University of New Hampshire has released some polls that were later proven unreliable, and it appears they are at it again. The college just released the results of their latest study that shows both of the state’s Republican congressmen trailing their Democratic opponents, but the polling methodology is flawed in at least three different ways.

The results show 1st District freshman Rep. Frank Guinta (R) trailing former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D), the woman he unseated in 2010. According to the UNH data, Shea-Porter leads the first-term incumbent 44-39 percent. In the more Democratic 2nd District, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) trails 2010 opponent Annie Kuster (D) 39-40 percent.

The first methodological error concerns the length of the sampling period, which stretches from April 9-20. Here, UNH uses a 12-day information gathering period when three is usually considered optimum. The longer sampling time frame has proven to skew results.

Second, the respondent universe of 538 “adults” does not appear to even screen for registered voters. Going beyond the normal voting pool always provides different numbers than one would see from those who are qualified and intend to actually participate in the election.

Third, the number of respondents for each congressional district are low (230 adults in District 1, 251 adults in District 2), thus further deteriorating the reliability factor.

Considering all of the methodology flaws, the current UNH poll should be discounted, though the conclusion that both of the state’s House races will be close and very competitive can certainly be accepted.

Critz Defeats Altmire in Pennsylvania; Holden Loses

While Mitt Romney was putting the finishing touches on a five-state sweep that will end all doubt about his prospects to become the Republican presidential nominee, Pennsylvania voters also chose statewide nominees and general election candidates from their new congressional districts.

The GOP nominated businessman Tom Smith in the Senate race. Mr. Smith, backed by Pennsylvania Tea Party organizations, invested more than $5 million of his own money in order to advertise heavily throughout the state. The move paid off as he racked up a 40-22-20 percent win over former state Rep. Sam Rohrer, who was the director of the Pennsylvania chapter of Americans for Prosperity, and businessman Steven Welch who enjoyed the support of Gov. Tom Corbett and the state Republican Party establishment. Smith now faces Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) in the general election and will find tough going in challenging the man who unseated then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) by more than 18 points six years ago.

In the 12th Congressional District race that featured an incumbent pairing between Democrats Jason Altmire (D-PA-4) and Mark Critz (D-PA-12), the hard-fought campaign culminated in a close victory for Critz. The three-term Altmire had the advantage of already representing just over 63 percent of the new 12th district, versus Critz who saw only 29 percent of his constituency carry over to the new seat. Both candidates were on their way to spending more than $1.5 million for the primary contest.

Considering he began the campaign with with a severe name ID deficit, the 52-48 percent win is an impressive one for Critz and again proves that appealing to the base voter in either party with the fundamental party message is usually successful. Since the new 12th is only a 45 percent Obama district, Republican Keith Rothfus, who held Altmire to a 51-49 percent victory in 2010, certainly will have the opportunity to run a competitive general election campaign against Critz, who may have just positioned himself outside of his new electorate’s mainstream.

In the eastern part of the state, Rep. Tim Holden fell to his Democratic primary challenger. Carrying over just 21 percent of his previous constituency to the new 17th District put Mr. Holden and attorney Matt Cartwright at parity. Raising and spending well over $700,000, the wealthy liberal activist prevailed with an impressive 57-43 percent win, thus bringing the Representative’s 20-year congressional career to an end.

In the open 4th District, all of the real action was in the Republican primary, because the GOP nominee becomes the prohibitive general election favorite in a seat that gave over 55 percent of its votes to John McCain in the 2008 presidential contest. Last night, state Rep. Scott Perry, an Iraq War veteran, swept every county in the new district and scored an overwhelming 54-19-14 percent victory over York County Commissioner Chris Reilly, who enjoyed the public endorsement of Sen. Pat Toomey (R), and attorney Sean Summers, respectively. Perry will now face mechanical engineer Harry Perkinson, who scored 56 percent in the Democratic primary. Mr. Perry will now become the next congressman.

With the Altmire and Holden defeats, 48 House incumbents have either announced their retirements, are running for other offices, resigned their seats, passed away, or have been defeated for renomination. The Holden defeat now brings the grand total of House open seats to 58.