Category Archives: Governor

New Wisconsin Poll Shows Growing Support for Walker

The brand new Public Policy Polling survey (April 13-15; 1,136 registered Wisconsin voters via automated interviews) reveals that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is gaining strength in his June 5 recall election battle. According to the data, Walker would defeat his strongest Democratic opponent, Milwaukee mayor and former congressman Tom Barrett, the man he defeated in 2010, by a 50-45 percent count. Walker leads former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk by seven points, Secretary of State Doug La Follette by nine, and posts a 12-point margin over state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout. Walker scores either 50 or 51 percent in all scenarios.

One certainly can question the methodology of this poll since it employed automated calls over a weekend, and the Republican split can be considered high. For this particular poll, 32 percent of respondents identified themselves as Republicans, 31 percent Democratic, and 37 percent Independent. Since Wisconsin voters do not register by political party, it is difficult to ascertain the actual partisan division, but Wisconsin’s political history suggests that the Democratic number should be higher.

Perhaps the poll’s most telling statistic is Walker’s support among union households. In all configurations, the governor receives between 31 and 33 percent support, a rather surprising number since it is union issues that are driving the recall. This finding could be detecting the growing split between private and public sector union members. The Wisconsin controversy has confined itself to the public sector labor issues.

The recall campaign will act as a major springboard onto the Wisconsin general election and, quite possibly, the national contest as well.

“Badgering” the Wisconsin Voter

Tuesday’s Badger State primary took center stage in the GOP presidential nomination contest this week, but voters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s biggest city, were asked to do something slightly unusual that day – vote for a candidate who already had announced that he will run for another office.

Milwaukee mayor and former congressman Tom Barrett (D) was re-elected to a third term as the city’s mayor, but apparently isn’t planning to serve in that capacity for very long. On Friday of last week, he announced that he had also decided to become a candidate for the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination in the primary election to be held in a little over a month, on May 8, for the right to face Gov. Scott Walker in a recall election that is sure to carry national implications.

Barrett will have to ramp up a statewide campaign quickly in the primary battle against former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, Secretary of State Doug LaFollette, and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout for the right to take on Walker in the June 5 recall election. Also being conducted are recall elections against Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and three state senators. A fourth legislative office under recall will see a special election after incumbent Sen. Pam Galloway (R) announced her resignation in early March.

For the past few weeks Barrett had been coy, but dropped several hints that he was interested in a possible third run for governor even as he was campaigning for another term as Milwaukee’s mayor. Barrett lost the 2010 gubernatorial election to Walker by a 52 percent – 47 percent margin. He and Falk also previously lost a Democratic gubernatorial nomination, in 2002 to then-Attorney General Jim Doyle, who went on to serve as governor until Walker’s election in 2010.

Mr. Barrett has had a testy relationship with public employee unions, particularly those representing teachers, in Milwaukee. In fact, some union leaders had urged him to stay out of the race to clear the way for Falk and avoid a contentious Democratic primary with only one month to put together a general election campaign against Walker.

Counting the presidential primary, the regular primary, the recall, and the general election, Wisconsin voters are being asked to go to the polls at least five times between April and November all in significant contests that will affect more than just their own state’s politics. No wonder many in Wisconsin feel so “badgered” by politics.

Washington’s Inslee to Resign

Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1), already a declared 2012 candidate for governor of Washington state, will resign his seat in Congress this week. With gubernatorial election polling continuing to show him either behind or tied with Attorney General Rob McKenna (R), carrying out his responsibilities in the nation’s capital while still trying to campaign in a state that is the farthest away in the continental region from Washington, DC is logistically too difficult.

The timing of his resignation is important, hence the reason that he has waited until now to leave office. Under Washington election law, resigning in March prior to the state’s May 18 candidate filing deadline will allow a special election to be conducted concurrently with the state’s regular primary and general election schedule, Aug. 7 and Nov. 6, respectively.

This is a curious decision because the current 1st District, where a special election would be held, is more highly Democratic than the new 1st District. Though the Obama 2008 percentage in the new 1st is 56 percent, usually regarded as a strong partisan number, Rep. Dave Reichert’s (R) current 8th District has the same percentage, yet he has held even in the worst of Republican years. Therefore, the open battle in the new 1st figures to be much more competitive than one in the current 1st.

While it’s true that any new member would serve just a short time under the current lines if the election were held sometime before November, the short-term incumbency advantages would seemingly put the winner in a stronger position when facing a viable Republican regular election opponent, presumably 2nd District 2010 nominee John Koster who held Rep. Rick Larsen (D) to a 51-49 percent win. Much of the Koster base territory is in the new open 1st.

Expect WA-1 to be competitive in the fall. The concurrent special election will be virtually meaningless, because the winner will serve only the final two months of the current term. If the two elections produce different winners, the special election victor will have only eight weeks in office during the interim transition period.

Democrats to Depart in North Carolina

Two Democratic retirements were announced yesterday in North Carolina.

First, Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC-13), who seemed politically doomed in an intra-party pairing with Rep. David Price (D-NC-4) in the new 4th Congressional District, decided not to make the race after all. Though saying he was encouraged by his supporters’ responses if forced to make a choice between the two, Miller indicated that Democratic Party leaders, activists, and financial donors were virtually unanimous in expressing the opinion that the two should not challenge each other.

The congressman was first elected in the redistricting year of 2002, winning the new seat North Carolina gained in reapportionment. Ten years later, Miller became the victim of redistricting as his 13th District was redrawn as a Republican seat and his Raleigh political base became enjoined with Price’s.

But the bigger Tar Heel State news is embattled Democratic Gov. Bev Purdue’s announcement that she will not seek a second four-year term in this year’s general election.

Lagging in the polls to Republican Pat McCrory, the man she beat in 2008, and being continually upside down in job approval, her political outlook appeared bleak. Perdue’s standing was so bad at one point during the summer of 2009, that even a plurality of Democrats disapproved of her performance in office (38:40 percent). It was believed by many that Democrats would have a better chance to win in November with another candidate. Now, they have that opportunity.

The move has upended the state’s Democratic congressional delegation, however. Already Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC-11), another redistricting victim, says he is “strongly considering” and “leaning towards running for governor.”

Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7), one more Tar Heel State Democrat whose district will be more Republican in 2012, also said he is not ruling out running statewide. Should both of these men jump into the now open governor’s race, Republicans will almost certainly fill their vacated congressional districts.

For his part, outgoing Rep. Miller stated that he “hadn’t given [running for governor] the first thought,” but he also didn’t close the door on running. He added, however, that other qualified candidates are already jumping into the race.

In terms of statewide Democratic office holders, with the exception of Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton – who immediately declared his candidacy for governor and never even eliminated the possibility of launching a primary challenge to Purdue – each publicly ruled out embarking upon gubernatorial campaigns. Attorney General Roy Cooper, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and State Treasurer Janet Cowell all confirmed they are seeking re-election to their current positions.

It is clear that North Carolina is the Republicans’ best redistricting state. According to many analyses, the GOP has a strong chance to gain as many as four seats in the 13-member delegation, making the 2013-14 delegation split 10R-3D. Should both Shuler and McIntyre enter the governor’s race, such an outcome becomes a virtual lock.

The most likely scenario features Mr. Shuler becoming a gubernatorial candidate, but Mr. McIntyre either seeking re-election or retiring from the House. Yesterday’s decisions rocked North Carolina politics. Many more developments will soon be forthcoming.

Election Night 2011: Something for Everyone

Both parties scored major victories last night in the odd-year election results. Kentucky Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear scored, as predicted, an easy 56-35 percent win over state Senate Pres. David Williams to secure a second term in office. Democrats, except for the Office of Agriculture Commissioner, swept the statewide races. There were no state legislative elections held.

In Mississippi, the reverse occurred, except in a bigger way, as the Republicans may have captured both houses of the legislature in addition to holding the open governor’s seat. Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant (R), also as expected, romped to a 61-39 percent win over Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree (D). Except for the attorney general’s office, the Republicans swept all of the statewide posts.

However, it was the legislative elections where change occurred. Republicans reversed the Democrats’ 27-25 majority in the state Senate as they have secured or are discernibly ahead in 29 districts to the Democrats’ 22, with one seat still being too close to call. But the bigger turnaround came in the state House, where the Dems have apparently lost their 74-48 margin. Republicans appeared to have claimed or were leading in 59 races as compared to the Democrats 57, with six races still too close to call. If the GOP splits the six undeclared campaigns, they will assume the state House majority. Controlling both houses of the legislature and the governor’s mansion will mean the 3R-1D split in the congressional delegation will likely hold in the new redistricting map.

It appears the Republicans may have also gained a majority in the Virginia state Senate. Right now, it appears the body has fallen into a 20-20 tie, which is a gain of two seats for the GOP on the Democrats’ own Senate redistricting map. The final seat, District 17 in Fredericksburg, is extremely close. The Republican challenger and Democratic incumbent are separated by only 86 votes, meaning a series of recounts. The state Senate majority will literally hang on these few ballots. The GOP assumes the majority in an even chamber because Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) will cast the tie-breaking vote. In the House of Delegates, the GOP increased their majority by eight seats, and now have a huge 67R-32D-1I advantage. Taking the state Senate would be big for congressional Republicans, too, since the federal redistricting map is not yet completed. If the tenuous majority holds, it is likely the current 8R-3D congressional delegation split will carry over onto the new map.

The Virginia legislative elections illustrates the importance of redistricting. The Republicans drew the state House map, and the Democrats authored the Senate plan. The GOP was able to win two-thirds of the seats in their chamber, while the Democrats came away with a split, even though the elections were all held on the same day among the same voters.

In Ohio, the labor union-backed referendum to undo Gov. John Kasich’s (R) public employee benefit reduction law was easily struck down by a 61-39 percent margin as polling had predicted. This is an obvious victory for Big Labor and the Ohio Democrats.

Turning to the west and the one special congressional election in the country, the 1st District of Oregon’s special primary election also went as polling predicted. State Sen. Suzanne Bonamici captured 66 percent in the Democratic primary to easily claim her party’s nomination. On the Republican side, 2010 congressional nominee Rob Cornilles racked up 73 percent to secure a position in the special general. The deciding vote will be held on Jan. 31. The winner serves the remaining portion of resigned Rep. David Wu’s (D) final term in office, and will be on the regular general election ballot in November to try for a full term. As the new Democratic nominee, Bonamici is rated as a heavy favorite to retain the seat for the national Dems.