Category Archives: 2022

WI-Senate: Lt. Gov. Announces

By Jim Ellis

Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes

July 22, 2021 — As expected, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) declared his candidacy Tuesday for a Wisconsin Senate seat. Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) has yet to say if he will seek a third term (when he first ran in 2010, he committed to serving only two terms) but there is no question whatever the senator decides that the Wisconsin race will be highly competitive and become a national campaign.

Before the eventual Democratic nominee even gets the opportunity to face Sen. Johnson, he or she must traverse a difficult primary battle that won’t conclude until August of next year. Already vying for the party nomination in addition now to Lt. Gov. Barnes are state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, state Sen. Chris Larson (D-Milwaukee), Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, and Milwaukee Bucks basketball club senior executive and former Obama White House aide Alex Lasry. Still others may enter.

Wisconsin has been the site of very close election in the latter part of the decade. Two presidential campaigns and a gubernatorial race fell within one percentage point (2016 Presidential: Trump: 47.2 – 46.5 percent; 2020 Presidential: Biden 49.4 – 48.8 percent; 2018 Governor: Tony Evers-D: 49.5 – 48.4 percent; 2016 US Senate: Johnson: 50-47 percent), and another photo finish is expected for 2022.

Polling will again be another question mark since the survey research community’s joint record in Wisconsin has been poor since 2016.

In the Trump-Clinton race, pollsters ran 32 polls and Donald Trump led in none, yet he won the state. In the 2016 Senate race, Sen. Johnson was ahead only once in 29 public polls, yet claimed a three-point re-election victory when the actual votes were tabulated. Again, in the 2020 presidential race, while correctly predicting that Biden would carry Wisconsin, their average margin was way off the mark, finding the Democrat leading by a mean average of 6.7 percentage points in eight polls conducted after Oct. 20. The actual Biden victory margin was just beyond 22,000 votes.

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Re-Mapping Ohio

Ohio’s Congressional Districts


By Jim Ellis

July 21, 2021 — Thanks to the state of Ohio, the redistricting calendar has new life. The Buckeye State’s lawsuit against the Census Bureau and a negotiated out of court settlement led to an agreement that all 50 states will receive their redistricting census tract data on or around Aug. 15 instead of well into October or beyond.

Typically, states receive their individual data, mandatory for drawing federal congressional districts that must be drawn to a factor of plus or minus one person, during the early part of the year. The Census Bureau largely blames this year’s delays on COVID-19, though a great deal of the problem centers around the bureaucracy attempting to impose differential privacy on part of the data, meaning some of the key statistical information would not be released. The states not having full access would lead to the new districts being less statistically reliable.

Even the August data distribution agreement, however, creates a tenuous situation for the states to complete their redistricting work and still adhere to mandatory internal local deadlines. This is particularly true for the states like Ohio that are losing or gaining congressional representation.

Ohio grew at a percentage rate of just 2.3 through the decade, ranking 44th in the nation and just over a full percentage point below the national average. The 2020 census numbers add to the continuing trend for this state of failing to keep pace with national population growth. In the 1980 census, for example, Ohio held 21 congressional districts. It would lose two congressional seats in the 1990 apportionment, one more in 2000, and two more in 2010 to bring us to its current total of 16. The 2020 census reduces the delegation to 15 seats.

Currently, the Ohio US House delegation stands at a party division of 12R-4D. Since the count is so lopsided in the Republicans’ favor, it looks on paper that the GOP would be the party that loses one of its members.

Looking closely at the individual district population data, however, that may not be the case. Despite the Dems having only four seats, three of their four are among Ohio’s most under-populated CDs, while one, the 3rd District of Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus), actually must shed the most population, some 34,000-plus residents according to the latest published figures (July 2019). Adding the last year of population statistics could change the situation, but at first glance the statewide and district totals suggest alterations will only be minor.
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New State Fundraising Figures

By Jim Ellis

No surprise that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) tops the fundraising list.

July 20, 2021 — The second quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports are now public, and while it will take some time to comprehend the individual filings, we can look at the aggregate state data to begin drawing some early US House political situation conclusions:

The following is a list of the 80 office holders and candidates who exceeded $1 million-plus in receipts since Jan. 1, 2021, including 74 incumbents.

A total of 45 are Democrats as compared to 35 Republicans. A brief explanation of why certain individuals have raised this much money is also included.

California

INCUMBENT PARTY DIST RECEIPTS CASH-ON-HAND
Pelosi, Nancy D CA-12 $6,873,128 $7,150,847
McCarthy, Kevin R CA-23 $6,312,663 $6,305,397
Porter, Katie D CA-45 $4,887,831 $12,859,730
Schiff, Adam D CA-28 $3,979,554 $15,639,499
Nunes, Devin R CA-22 $2,525,366 $11,539,624
Khanna, Ro D CA-17 $2,307,112 $3,822,319
Harder, Josh D CA-10 $1,987,919 $5,040,053
Kim, Young R CA-39 $1,594,073 $1,447,568
Garcia, Mike R CA-25 $1,353,194 $822,554
Steel, Michelle R CA-48 $1,352,557 $1,008,266
Collins, Joe R CA-43 $1,199,044 $180,383
Swalwell, Eric D CA-15 $1,085,947 $654,799

No surprise that the two party leaders, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) top the fundraising list, though House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) exceeded by just over $600,000 the top GOP total.

Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) had their typically strong fundraising periods. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) has the lowest population number of any district, and he sits in the middle of the San Fernando Valley. Both points make him vulnerable in redistricting from a state that is losing a congressional district. Joe Collins (R) is opposing Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles). It is obvious from his large receipt total and small cash-on-hand figure that he is raising his money through direct mail prospecting, which is an expensive proposition.

Colorado

INCUMBENT PARTY DIST RECEIPTS CASH-ON-HAND
Boebert, Lauren R CO-3 $1,794,955 $1,252,630
Donovan, Kerry D CO-3 $1,179,347 $479,246

Obviously, the western slope 3rd District race will be competitive and expensive.

Florida

INCUMBENT PARTY DIST RECEIPTS CASH-ON-HAND
Gaetz, Matt R FL-1 $3,277,058 $1,585,935
Cherfilus-McCormick, Sheila D FL-20 $2,409,407 $2,081,704
Mast, Brian R FL-18 $1,749,636 $1,720,117
Donalds, Byron R FL-19 $1,468,065 $958,339
Salazar, Maria Elvira R FL-27 $1,201,681 $672,473
Murphy, Stephanie D FL-7 $1,165,011 $1,973,288

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) is in the special election to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL). Most of her money is self-contributed. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) may soon be facing legal charges, so much of his campaign treasury may be paying legal fees. Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) and Stephanie Murphy (D-Winter Park) look to be facing serious re-election opposition.

Georgia

INCUMBENT PARTY DIST RECEIPTS CASH-ON-HAND
Greene, Marjorie T. R GA-14 $4,775,059 $2,792,569
Flowers, Marcus D GA-14 $2,018,385 $547,579
McBath, Lucy D GA-6 $1,575,051 $1,326,020
Bourdeaux, Carolyn D GA-7 $1,240,567 $1,131,140

There is no doubt that the 14th District race featuring controversial Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) will be expensive and attract a great deal of media attention. Reps. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) and Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee) face uncertain redistricting challenges.

Illinois

INCUMBENT PARTY DIST RECEIPTS CASH-ON-HAND
Krishnamoorthi, R. D IL-8 $2,282,380 $10,090,383
Kinzinger, Adam R IL-16 $1,954,927 $3,075,610
Underwood, Lauren D IL-14 $1,685,298 $1,479,294

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg) is a consistent major fundraiser. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon) faces an uncertain redistricting situation along with a strong Republican primary challenge. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) will likely receive a more Democratic seat in redistricting.

Iowa

INCUMBENT PARTY DIST RECEIPTS CASH-ON-HAND
Hinson, Ashley R IA-1 $1,443,371 $929,482
Axne, Cindy D IA-3 $1,292,496 $1,038,635
Miller-Meeks, M. R IA-2 $1,045,361 $1,174,066

As we can see from the fundraising totals, Iowa could be the most competitive US House state in 2022 with three of the state’s four seats being top-tier challenger races.

Kansas

INCUMBENT PARTY DIST RECEIPTS CASH-ON-HAND
Davids, Sharice D KS-3 $1,192,865 $1,222,016

2022: The Unannounced

By Jim Ellis

July 19, 2021 — The Fox News website ran a story late last week saying that there remain five in-cycle US senators who have not yet revealed their political plans for 2022. Below is a review of those senators’ political situations and clues that could provide a glimpse whether they are headed toward re-election or retirement.

The best hints will be forthcoming in a matter of days as the second quarter campaign financial disclosure reports will be released shortly on the Federal Election Commission website. Last Thursday was the deadline for filing the reports for the period covering April 1 through June 30.

The five senators, listed alphabetically by state are Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), John Thune (R-SD), Patrick Leahy (D-VT), and Ron Johnson (R-WI).


Sen. Murkowski:

State: Alaska
Appointed: 2002
Re-elected: 2004, 2010, 2016
Age at time of 2022 election: 65
Victory Margin 2016: 44.4 – 29.2%

Announced Major Opponents:
• Karl Speights (R) – Retired Air Force officer
• Kelly Tshibaka (R) – Former AK Administration Commissioner

It is assumed that Sen. Murkowski will run for re-election, though her return path to Washington may be a difficult one to traverse. Last night, her campaign spokesperson stated that the Senator’s second quarter disclosure report would show $1.15 million raised for the quarter with $2.3 million cash-on-hand. These are financial numbers that suggest she will seek re-election.

Alaska has changed its nominating system and will be the first state to adopt a “top four” primary procedure. Similar to California, Louisiana, and Washington that use the jungle primary format to send the top two candidates to the general election, Alaska will instead advance the top four from the slate primary. The change virtually ensures that Sen. Murkowski will not again lose the Republican primary as she did in the 2010 election. In that year, she was forced to run a highly efficient general election write-in operation to win her second full term.

Early polling numbers find Sen. Murkowski with very poor favorability numbers among Republicans and running a distant third behind Kelly Tshibaka (R), who is already the state Republican Party’s officially endorsed candidate. Dr. Al Gross (D), the 2020 Senate nominee, has not yet committed to running again, but he, too, runs ahead of the Senator in the previously released surveys.

While the top four system guarantees Sen. Murkowski will secure a ballot position for the general election, winning her re-election is in doubt.


Sen. Grassley:

State: Iowa
First Elected: 1980
Re-elected: 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010, 2016
Age at time of 2022 election: 89
Victory Margin 2016: 60.1 – 35.7%

Announced Major Opponents:
• Jim Carlin (R) – State Senator; former State Representative
• Glenn Hurst (D) – Minden City Councilman; Physician
• Dave Muhlbauer (D) – Ex-Crawford County Commissioner; Farmer

Last week Sen. Grassley stated that he would make his political plan public before Nov. 1. Despite his advanced age, it is presumed in all sectors now that Sen. Grassley will seek re-election. He has filed a 2022 campaign committee with the FEC, has a semi-updated website, and it will be interesting to see how active his fundraising became in the second quarter. His March 31 report revealed a cash-on-hand figure of $2.04 million to begin the re-election cycle.

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House Vulnerables – Part II

By Jim Ellis

July 13, 2021 — On Monday, we began a two-part series on what are arguably the most vulnerable dozen US House seats based upon the individual district’s political performance over the past two elections.

Below is the priority order update covering the second half of the top 12 most vulnerable CDs. As you will continue to see below, all of the seats except one are Republican held.

To refresh, the first six covered were:

• IA-2 (Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Ottumwa)
• IA-1 (Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Marion/Cedar Rapids)
• IA-3 (Rep. Cindy Axne, D-Des Moines)
• FL-27 (Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Miami)
• CA-48 (Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Orange County)
• NY-22 (Rep. Cynthia Tenney, R-New Hartford)

Here’s our look at the next six:

UT-4: Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) – Ave R vote: 48.8%
• Former NFL football star and businessman Burgess Owens defeated freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D) by one percentage point in 2020, and we can expect another competitive race here again within this mostly suburban Salt Lake City congressional district located in the metropolitan area’s southern sector.

Republicans, who are in full control of the Utah redistricting process, will attempt to improve the district for Owens, which is possible since the 4th CD is the fastest growing district in the fastest growing state over the past decade. The best estimates suggest that the 4th District must shed approximately 50,000 people to other CDs. This should allow map drawers to subtract a substantial number of Democratic voters from the district, thus yielding Burgess a slightly more favorable political domain.

At this point, McAdams, who was the Salt Lake County mayor prior to his election to Congress, has not indicated whether he will return for a re-match.

MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Rochester) – Ave R vote: 49.3%
• Two-term Rep. Hagedorn just announced that his cancer has returned, meaning an immediate treatment regimen. How this will affect his re-election campaign is yet to be determined. Hagedorn has won two close elections, as has his Democratic colleague in the adjacent district, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan).

Minnesota is the only state in the nation that sees a split control legislature, meaning each party controls one house. Since the state did not lose a congressional district in apportionment as originally projected, it would not be surprising to see a legislative deal made where Democrats and Republicans are flipped between the two adjoining districts. The changes would result in Hagedorn gaining Republicans and Craig adding Democrats. Redistricting will perhaps be the most critical factor in determining the outcome of both districts come 2022 and beyond.

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