Monthly Archives: December 2024

One More Race to Go; Miller-Meeks Clinches Victory; Rep. Seth Moulton Under Fire; Alaska Ranked Choice Vote Recount Ordered

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024

House

California Assemblyman Adam Gray

CA-13: Race Down to 143 Votes — The agonizingly slow vote counting process in northern California’s 13th Congressional District continues to produce new totals. Now, Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) has rebounded slightly and trails former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) by just 143 votes. Officials continue to add votes to the aggregate, so it is difficult to say when this contest will be ruled final.

It is now likely, however, that Gray will hold the lead and convert the seat to the Democratic column. It is also probable that should the margin remain this small that a recount will soon follow. If Gray wins, the final House count will be 220R – 215D in a full chamber. When the three Republican vacancies open due to Trump Administration appointments and resignation, the count will drop to 217-215.

IA-1: Rep. Miller-Meeks (R) Clinches Victory — The recount in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District is now complete and the final result ended as expected. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) has now officially won a third term. The recount, requested by opponent Christina Bohannan (D), changed the original vote total by just four votes. Instead of Miller-Meeks winning by 802 votes, the official total will now be adjusted to a 798-vote margin. Interestingly, this is not the closest election of the congresswoman’s career. Her initial victory spread in 2020 was only six votes, so this 798 vote win is a landslide in comparison.

MA-6: Rep. Moulton’s (D) Potential Primary — Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) has been under fire from the far left of his party over comments he made criticizing the practice of allowing biological males to participate in female athletics. The firestorm has caused a possible 2026 Democratic primary opponent to come forward.

Dan Koh, who was chief of staff to former Boston mayor and US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh (D), lost a 3rd District Democratic primary by just 145 votes in 2018 (to current Rep. Lori Trahan) but then rebounded to win a town supervisors race in the Andover locality. Koh was quoted saying he is considering launching a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Moulton in 2026.

Moulton was first elected in 2014 when he defeated then-Congressman John Tierney in the Democratic primary. He has easily been renominated and re-elected in every succeeding election. In the 2024 cycle, Rep. Moulton faced only write-in candidates in both his primary and general election campaigns. The congressman will be favored in the next election regardless of who opposes him.

States

Alaska: Ranked Choice Recount Ordered — Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who is Alaska’s chief elections officer, has indicated that she will order a recount for the very tight Ranked Choice Voting repeal ballot initiative. By just 664 votes, a small majority of the electorate fought back an effort to squelch the state’s Top Four/Ranked Choice Voting primary system that was adopted in 2020.

A total of 320,574 ballots were cast in the election and the vote opposing repeal was 50.1 percent while those favoring repeal recorded 49.9 percent. The vote total is close enough where the recount could conceivably change the outcome.

Improvement Everywhere

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024

2024 Election

President-Elect Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

With more 2024 election numbers becoming final and certified, we can begin to see that interesting patterns are developing, some of which were pervasive.

We have already seen many articles based upon exit polls showing that minority voters in the African-American, Hispanic, and Asian communities as well as younger citizens produced greater support for President-Elect Donald Trump than what past Republican candidates drew. He also gained more support from voters on the lower end of the economic scale and those without a college degree. The individual state totals, however, suggest his win was even more significant.

Whether the 2024 election proves to be the beginning of an American political realignment remains to be seen, but it does appear the Republicans now have an opportunity to create a more long-lasting, upward support trend with groups that, heretofore, comprised the Democratic Party’s strongest base vote.

Realignments typically have occurred in 40-50 year increments. Thus, the timing may be consistent with another realignment forming. Going back to the 1976 presidential election between Jimmy Carter and then-President Gerald Ford, we see the country has almost flipped. Of the 23 states that Carter carried in ’76, Kamala Harris won in only seven 48 years later. Conversely, Harris took a dozen states that Ford won. On the other hand, Trump won 16 states that Carter won, and 15 that Ford claimed.

The most sweeping change, however, comes in comparing Trump’s 2024 performance to his previous presidential runs.

When looking at his 2020 totals in comparison to 2024, we see that Trump improved his support percentage in all 51 voting entities. Calculating his percentage totals, we see that his support jumped to a mean average increase of 2.3 percentage points with a median of 1.9 percent. His high gain was in New York where he posted 5.7 percentage points over his 2020 total. His low was gaining only 0.2 percent in Washington.

Conversely, Kamala Harris performed badly in comparison to Joe Biden’s winning 2020 campaign. She underperformed Biden’s totals in 50 of the 51 voting entities, scoring a positive gain of just 0.2 percent over the president’s total in Utah. Even in her home state of California where the electorate three times elected her to statewide office, she finished 4.9 percent below Biden’s total even though she carried the state with 58.6 percent of the vote. It was her sixth-best performing state in the country. (District of Columbia, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Hawaii were better Harris performers than California.)

Comparing the Trump and Harris increase/decrease totals, we see that the largest net swing (subtracting Harris decrease vis-a-vis Biden from Trump’s 2020 to 2024 increase total) occurred in New York where Trump gained 5.7 points over his 2020 performance and Harris dropped 5.7 from Biden’s 2020 total. Therefore, the net swing in Trump’s favor was 11 percentage points. The next two largest swings occurred in New Jersey (10 percentage points), and Florida (9.8 percent).

Looking at Trump’s 2016 performance in comparison to 2024, we see his former total beat his current total in only one state, Georgia, and by only .1 percent. His 2024 percentage of 43.2 equaled his 2016 performance in Colorado.

Interestingly, while Trump recaptured Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2024 after winning them in 2016 but losing all five in 2020, his support percentage was actually higher in losing (2020) than in winning (2016) in four of the five states. Only in Georgia was his winning 2016 percentage higher than his 2020 losing percentage.

Harris, on the other hand, did outperform Hillary Clinton’s 2016 total in 36 states with her largest increase margin being 10.3 percentage points in Utah.

Though this is not the “greatest landslide in Republican history,” as Trump claims (both of Ronald Reagan’s wins in 1980 and 1984 were bigger victories), the 2024 election is proving to be a very significant Republican win and one that could set the trend for future election cycles.

Petronis In Lead to Replace Resigned Rep. Gaetz; FL-6 State Senator in Lead; New York Rep. Torres Considers Challenging NY Gov. Hochul

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 2, 2024

House

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

FL-1: Petronis Coalescing Support — State CFO Jimmy Petronis (R), though not a resident of Congressional District 1, is quickly becoming the man to beat in the Jan. 28 Republican special primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Already with President-Elect Donald Trump’s endorsement, Sen. Rick Scott (R) now joins the Petronis backers. State Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola), businessman Keith Gross, and former state Rep. Frank White have all dropped out of the race and endorsed Petronis.

While 13 other Republicans are still on the ballot, Petronis is fast becoming the clear favorite. The special general election is scheduled for April 1. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as the safest seat in the state at R+38.

FL-6: State Senator is Leading Congressional Candidate — President-Elect Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have already chosen their preferred candidate to replace outgoing Florida Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz has been chosen as Trump’s National Security Advisor and announced that he will resign his seat on Jan. 20, the day the president-elect is sworn into office for a non-consecutive second term.

With those endorsements, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is the clear early favorite, though seven other Republicans, including two former local elected officials and Rep. Waltz’s district director, are also announced candidates.

Because of the appointment notice, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was able to combine the state’s two special congressional elections in one cycle (primary Jan. 28; special general, April 1).

Governor

New York: Rep. Torres Considering Gov Race — Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Torres, a staunch defender of Israel, also says he would consider entering the crowded 2025 New York City mayor’s race but the governor’s challenge, he reiterates, is “more appealing.”

Gov. Hochul, who ascended to the governor’s office from her elected post as lieutenant governor when then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, defeated New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) 67-19-13 percent in the 2022 Democratic primary. She won the general election with an underwhelming 53-47 percent margin over then-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R).

Of all 50 states, President-Elect Trump’s performance improved over his 2020 showing in New York by the most in the country, a net 11.4 percentage points. Therefore, the state could potentially become more competitive in future elections.