Monthly Archives: May 2015

McCain Warning Signs

May 5, 2015 — Arizona Sen. John McCain (R), who is seeking re-election to a sixth term next year, is showing political weakness according to a new Public Policy Polling survey (May 1-3; 600 registered Arizona voters; 300 self-identified Arizona Republican voters).

According to the results, McCain’s job approval is in upside-down territory not only from the Grand Canyon State electorate at-large but from an isolated Republican cell sample, as well. PPP projects that the senator records only a 36:51 percent approval ratio before the general electorate. More troubling, he scores 41:50 percent favorable to unfavorable among Republicans.

Sen. McCain has long been a controversial figure with Republican Party base voters, and there is an active effort attempting to deny him re-nomination. So far, candidate recruitment has failed because only state Sen. Kelli Ward (R), who is not viewed as a substantial challenger, is willingly stepping forward to register a campaign committee.
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Projecting Another Close Race

May 7, 2015 — The worldwide GfK Public Affairs research organization, in conjunction with the Associated Press, conducted a nationwide poll of American attitudes and perceptions for the coming presidential election year.

The survey of 1,077 US adults was conducted during the April 23-27 period. The methodology appears very sound, correctly capturing the national demographic percentage divisions on race, religion, political party, and education level. Though the survey screened for registered voters and found that 80 percent of the respondents can participate in elections, the results were not divided into specific reporting segments. Overall, the GfK-AP polling conclusions appear methodologically consistent with a high degree of reliability.

Since this is an issues and attitudes poll, no ballot test questions were asked. The aggregate polling sample has a decidedly negative outlook, though, as only two of 17 presidential candidates (12 Republicans and five Democrats) were found with higher positive ratings than negative. Hillary Clinton (D) and Dr. Ben Carson (R) were the two individuals posting favorable ratios – 46:41 percent for Clinton, while Carson registered 15:12 percent – but neither of these totals are particularly impressive.
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One Republican Win, and
One Republican In

May 6, 2015 — The season’s first special election concluded last night in New York’s 11th Congressional District with little fanfare as Richmond County District Attorney Dan Donovan (R) easily rode to a landslide victory in former Rep. Michael Grimm’s (R) vacated seat. Grimm resigned at the beginning of the term after pleading guilty to federal tax evasion.

The election drew only 39,867 voters for an abysmally low turnout percentage of 9.8 percent. Donovan, who was viewed as the prohibitive favorite here since the special election cycle began, captured 59 percent of the vote compared to New York City Councilman Vincent Gentile’s (D-Brooklyn) 40 percent. Green Party nominee James Lane picked up the final 1.3 percent, or 521 raw votes. Donovan carried the Republican, Conservative, and Independence Party ballot lines, while Gentile held the Democratic and Working Families Party designations.

The Democrats barely contested this special election, vowing to wage a real campaign in this Staten Island-Brooklyn domain during the regular 2016 election cycle under what will likely be a full turnout model in the presidential year. Now that representative-elect Donovan will be the incumbent, doing so becomes more unlikely, however, as the national Democrats will move toward more logical targets elsewhere.
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Three More Jump in the 2016 Candidate Pool

May 5, 2015 — The group of Republican presidential candidates is expanding by three, as former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and retired Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson officially launched their national political efforts yesterday, and former Arkansas governor and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee made his entry official today.

Fiorina, the only woman in the Republican field to date, is already isolating herself with Hillary Clinton in order to offer a stark comparison about the direction each woman would lead the county should one of them be elected at the end of next year. Obviously, the outlook for both is much different beyond ideology and political philosophy. While former secretary of state, senator, and First Lady Clinton looks to be in the catbird seat to capture the Democratic nomination, Fiorina, a failed California US Senate candidate, is among the longest of shots on the Republican side.

Dr. Carson, a renowned medical practitioner who once successfully severed Siamese twins, came into the political realm with a 2013 National Prayer Breakfast speech, with President Obama sitting only a few seats away, and spoke critically of the state of American culture; it attracted great attention around the country. Dr. Carson has been on the speaking and writing circuit ever since, and though not a national figure, he has in the recent past polled equivalently with Jeb Bush in several state surveys.
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Poll Shows Hillary Lacking Trust
Among Likely Voters

May 4, 2015 — Rasmussen Reports (RR) went into the field this week to query one thousand randomly selected likely voters (April 27-28) about Hillary Clinton in order to determine if the current controversy surrounding her is changing perceptions. Specifically tested was the speculation that the Clinton Foundation accepted millions of dollars in (legally) undisclosed foreign donations, and whether such action affected her decision-making and actions as Secretary of State.

The results can’t be considered encouraging for her. A whopping 63 percent of the respondents say they believe that “some actions Secretary Clinton took were influenced by donations made to the Clinton Foundation.” According to RR, 42 percent said it is “very likely” that the donations influenced her official decisions. Conversely, only 12 percent said such is “not at all likely” and 30 percent believe it is “unlikely” that money to the foundation played a role in how she handled her cabinet position.

Additionally, a majority of those polled, 51 percent, say they “do not trust” the former First Lady as compared to 37 percent who do. Not surprisingly, 89 percent of those saying they don’t trust Clinton believe that the donations influenced the execution of her official duties. But, perhaps more troubling, 34 percent of the segment saying they do trust her also believe the money drove at least some of her actions as secretary of state.
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