Tag Archives: Utah

Utah Convention Winner

By Jim Ellis

June 23, 2017 — Last Saturday, in news that has been somewhat overshadowed by the recent special elections I’ve been writing about, former state Representative Chris Herrod, who challenged Sen. Orrin Hatch for re-nomination in 2012, won the special Republican nominating convention to replace outgoing Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy). Herrod advances to the Aug. 15 Republican primary to face Provo Mayor John Curtis and businessman Tanner Ainge, who both qualified for the ballot via petition signature.

Once Rep. Chaffetz announced he would leave the House without completing his current term, Gov. Gary Herbert (R) scheduled the replacement special election to include an Aug. 15 primary and a Nov. 7 general election. The political parties had the option of holding a nominating convention, which the Republicans quickly scheduled for this past Saturday, June 17. They changed the normal party rules to select one candidate for advancement rather than two if no candidate received 60 percent of the delegate vote.

Almost 800 Republican precinct delegates gathered in Provo for the special election vote. Eleven candidates were on the ballot, and it took five rounds of voting before Herrod emerged with a majority vote. On the final ballot, he defeated state Sen. Deidre Henderson, 415-338, for 55.1 percent of those present and voting, thus exceeding the majority mark and clinching the official party endorsement.

In regular Utah convention politics, candidates are required to receive 60 percent of the delegate vote to, if no candidates qualify by petition signature, clinch the actual party nomination. Because this is a special congressional election, the first held in Utah since 1930, the party leaders altered the convention rules to produce only one winner once 50 percent support was obtained. The fact that at least one other candidate would apparently qualify via signature -– an onerous requirement of 7,000 valid signatures gathered exclusively with circulators from the 3rd District -– factored heavily in the leaders’ decision to change the convention rules. This way, they could limit the number of primary participants.

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The Lineup to Replace
Chaffetz in Utah

By Jim Ellis

May 31, 2017 — The replacement process for Rep. Jason Chaffetz’s (R-Alpine/ Sandy) southeastern Utah congressional 3rd District seat is moving forward with both clarity and cloudiness. The field of 15 Republican special election candidates include a mayor, three state legislators, a former state representative, a radio talk show host, an advertising executive, the son of a local college basketball star and two attorneys, among others. Democrats feature no elected officials in their mix of four contenders. They have yet to schedule a party nominating convention.

Of the group, already Provo Mayor John Curtis and Tanner Ainge, son of Boston Celtics general manager and former Brigham Young University basketball star Danny Ainge, have already said they will use the petition process to place their names on the ballot. The vast majority of the others will enter the party convention.

Going the petition route, however, is no sure option. With a requirement to gather 7,000 valid registered voter signatures from within the district boundaries by June 12 means the project features a high degree of prospective failure.

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UT-3: More Clarity?

By Jim Ellis

May 31, 2017 — The replacement process for soon-to-be ex-Congressman Jason Chaffetz’s (R-Alpine/ Sandy) southeastern Utah congressional seat has just become clearer in some ways, but not in others.

Candidate filing closed on Friday, and 15 Republicans, four Democrats, one Libertarian, and two Independents filed for the impending special election. But, most will not qualify for the Aug. 15 primary ballot. Those wanting to run as Independents still have until June 12 to file, so it will be several weeks before we know each of the eventual primary candidates’ identities.

The Utah political parties typically employ a nominating convention as the first step in choosing final contenders for the various partisan offices. When Gov. Gary Herbert (R) scheduled the current special election, he indicated that the parties continue to retain the option of holding a nominating convention. Republicans have decided to do so, scheduling their confab for the fast approaching June 17th date. Yet, even the convention delegates’ designating a presumed nominee does not necessarily negate holding a primary.

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Utah’s Lightning Speed; Norman Wins

By Jim Ellis

May 23, 2017 — Utah Gov. Gary Herbert (R) just scheduled the special election to replace resigning Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy), and the candidate filing deadline will occur even before the congressman leaves office.

Chaffetz announced last week that he will resign from the House effective June 30. It was thought there would be a battle over the UT-3 special election process because Utah election law sets no procedure parameters. The state has not hosted a special federal election since 1930.

Utah election law merely says that a special election will be scheduled in the event of a vacancy. Some in the legislature are indicating that they need to be called into special session to determine the procedure, i.e., primary schedule, whether a nominating convention will be held, etc.

But over the weekend, Gov. Herbert usurped such an idea and had Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox (R) publicly announce the special election schedule.

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More Chaffetz Intrigue

By Jim Ellis

Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah)

Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah)

April 24, 2017 — House Oversight & Government Reform Committee chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) made a great deal of news over the past week. He surprisingly announced that he would not seek re-election in 2018; Chaffetz said he’s been away from his family in Utah too long during his four-plus terms in Congress, and desires to return to the private sector, yet he left the door wide open about running for governor in 2020.

Then, Rep. Chaffetz indicated that he was considering resigning before the term ends. In fact, late last week, rumors were circulating through media outlets that the congressman was going to leave the House as early as Friday.

Then Rep. Chaffetz somewhat clarified the situation saying that while he would not likely serve the remaining 20 months of the current term, he wouldn’t be leaving anytime soon and certainly not within days. The representative told the Salt Lake City Tribune that, “if I do it, it’s going to be months from now.” Chaffetz also disclosed that he is in discussions with an unidentified company about a private-sector position.

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Chaffetz to Retire; Cruz Down

By Jim Ellis

April 21, 2017 — Five-term Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy) announced Wednesday that he will surprisingly retire from the House at the end of the current term. Chaffetz, chairman of the House Oversight & Government Reform Committee, says he wants to return to the private sector and devote the rest of this time in Congress to completing his open investigations. The congressman said he may well run for public office again, but not in 2018. When asked about him entering the impending open 2020 gubernatorial race, Chaffetz joked that he is a “definite maybe.”

Rep. Chaffetz becomes the 14th House incumbent who will not be on the ballot for the next election, including the four remaining special congressional elections. At least another 15 members are reportedly considering seeking a different elective office, or outright retirement. Nine of the previously mentioned 14 are Republicans.

Utah’s 3rd Congressional District is safely Republican. President Trump took the district with 47.2 percent of the vote, while Hillary Clinton actually placed third, just behind Independent Evan McMullin at 23.3 percent. The 3rd was one of Mitt Romney’s strongest districts in the entire country. In 2012, he defeated President Obama, 78-19 percent, in this CD. Reviewing the 2008 presidential campaign, Sen. John McCain won here with a 68-30 percent margin.

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New Apportionment Patterns

By Jim Ellis

March 27, 2017 — The Census Bureau released new population estimate data at the end of last week, and their information about the largest growth areas and places losing the most residents helps us project how the states will change in congressional representation. With almost four years remaining until reapportionment occurs at the end of 2020, much can still change, but the current population shift patterns provide some early clues as to what may be the future state gain/loss formula.

According to the Bureau’s new estimates, Maricopa County (Arizona) ended 2016 as the nation’s largest growing local entity replacing Harris County (Texas), which had been in the first position for the last eight consecutive years. The population estimates show that the Phoenix area gained 81,360 people from July 1, 2015 to the same date one year later. The Houston area net resident total increased 56,587 during the same period.

The calculations analyze the natural increase (number of births outpacing the number of deaths), net domestic migration, meaning those who move from one part of America to another, and net international migration figures (those coming from other countries). Maricopa County’s totals meant that an average of 222 new people came to or were born in the domain each and every day during the 2015-2016 yearly midpoints.

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Senate ’18 Updates – Part IV

By Jim Ellis

March 22, 2017 — In our fourth and final installment in this update report series, we examine the latest happenings for the remaining seven 2018 US Senate campaigns.

• Utah: Now that Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) is sending signals that he will run for an eighth term (he is already the longest-serving Republican senator in history) much less political attention will be paid to this state. Should Hatch decide to retire, then former Massachusetts governor and presidential nominee Mitt Romney will become the center of attention. Romney made statements earlier in the year that he would consider running for the Senate from Utah. The context, however, was in the realm of an impending Hatch retirement. Same for former Utah governor and presidential candidate, Jon Huntsman, but his likely appointment as ambassador to Russia means the former governor will be removed from the Senate picture irrespective of Sen. Hatch’s status.

In any event, this seat will remain in Republican hands. Currently, it appears that the senator will seek re-election and is projected to win again in 2018.

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Senate: Utah & Mississippi

By Jim Ellis

March 13, 2017 — Originally elected in 1976, no Republican senator has served longer than Utah’s Orrin Hatch, and he is the eighth longest-serving member in American history. At the end of last week, he informed the media that he’s “planning on” running for an eighth term in 2018.

In 2012, Sen. Hatch indicated that he would be serving his final term upon election that year, but now his intention has apparently changed. The press office statement proved less definitive than Sen. Hatch’s words, however, suggesting that there is still a possibility for retirement.

“Senator Hatch appreciates the encouragement he’s receiving to run for reelection. While he has not made a final decision about his plans for 2018, he has made plans thus far to ensure all options remain on the table,” came the official statement clarifying the Senator’s earlier comments.

Earlier in the year, former governor and US ambassador to China, Jon Huntsman (R), indicated an interest in running for the Senate. He said at the time that he did not intend to challenge Sen. Hatch, should the latter decide to seek re-election. With Huntsman now appearing to be President Trump’s choice for Ambassador to Russia, it is unlikely that he will be in the Senate campaign picture irrespective of what Sen. Hatch decides.

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Senate Plans

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 31, 2017
— Senators Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Orrin Hatch (R-UT), two of the Senate’s most elderly members, were at the top of the potential retirement list in 2018. But, as we mentioned in our updates during the preceding 10 days, both are now sending re-election signals.

Below is a re-cap of the 21 senators who have made public comments about their 2018 campaign status (a total of 33 are in-cycle):

California: Sen. Feinstein stated during a radio interview within the past few days that she is “leaning” toward seeking re-election, feeling that her age during the next campaign (85) will not be a particular detriment either to her political ability or in representing her constituents. She stopped short, however, of making a formal campaign announcement.

Delaware: Sen. Tom Carper (D) said in early December that he has not yet decided whether he will seek a fourth term in 2018. The senator has been in elective office for 40 consecutive years, and will be 72 at the time of the next election.

Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) was also thought to be a retirement possibility, considering that he will be 76 years of age in 2018, and will complete 30 years of congressional service in that same year. Repeatedly, however, Sen. Nelson has said that he will seek a fourth term next year.

Indiana: In what promises to be a hotly contested campaign, Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) announced his re-election intention in January, and is beginning to hire political staff.

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Poll: Hatch Reportedly Languishing

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 30, 2017 — Five years ago, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) publicly stated during his tense sixth re-election effort that he was running his last campaign. With the current term now beginning to approach what might be the end of his senatorial service that spans more than 40 years, Sen. Hatch’s most recent political statements indicate that he is at least considering seeking re-election yet again.

Local Utah polling firm Dan Jones & Associates recently conducted a survey (Jan. 9-16) of 605 of the state’s registered voters for the Salt Lake City Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics. The findings suggest that the overwhelming majority of Utahans feel that Sen. Hatch should, in fact, retire. According to the respondents, 78 percent said they don’t believe he should seek re-election, and 58 percent describe their opinion as definite. In terms of job approval, however, Hatch’s favorability ratio is better: 51:47 percent positive to negative.

From the Dan Jones poll, former Gov. Jon Huntsman would defeat Sen. Hatch in a Republican primary by a whopping 62-21 percent, but this is a misleading statistic. The sample group is comprised of 605 registered voters at large, not only Republicans. When just self-identified GOP voters are segmented (the number is not released), Huntsman’s margin decreases to 49-35 percent. This latter tally is obviously not favorable to Sen. Hatch either, but it’s obviously an improvement when compared to the general sample response.

The previous results are skewed because Democrats and Independents are rendering input for a Republican primary, which, in Utah, doesn’t happen. While the Democrats hold open primaries here, Republicans do not. Therefore, only registered Republicans are eligible to participate in a GOP primary. Additionally, when isolating the Republican cell segment from this poll, we see a group that is almost assuredly too small – likely considerably less than 300 — to draw an accurate conclusion for a statewide campaign.

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Gaining and Losing

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 3, 2017 — At the end of 2016, the Census Bureau released its population estimates for the period beginning July 1, 2015 through July 1, 2016. The bureau reports some interesting data. Utah had the largest percentage growth (2.02 percent) of any state during that time span, while Illinois, West Virginia, Connecticut, and five others actually lost inhabitants. The other major gainers were also in the west: Nevada (1.95 percent) and Idaho (1.83 percent).

The states gaining the most individuals when calculating on a raw number basis for the tested 12-month period were Texas (432,957), Florida (367,525), California (256,077), and Washington (127,710).

The Illinois net total of 37,508 people leaving the state is the highest such number in the nation by more than a factor of three. Surveys suggested that high taxes, a lack of economic opportunity, and poor weather were the top reasons for the exodus.

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Still Not Over

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 7, 2016 — Though the Granite State of New Hampshire possesses only four electoral votes, it can potentially end as the most critical entity in Tuesday’s presidential election, at least according to Donald Trump’s recent comments. After Hillary Clinton had been maintaining a discernible lead here since the national conventions concluded, four new polls are now projecting New Hampshire going back into the toss-up range.

If Trump is to make a final run at national victory, he must first lock down all 23 states that normally vote Republican in a presidential contest. With his standing improving in Utah and Arizona, this initial objective appears within his grasp. After securing the base, he must win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and then one more state. Therefore, his victory path is still difficult to attain.

The new American Research Group (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 600 likely New Hampshire voters) and WBUR-MassINC study (Oct. 29-Nov. 1; 500 likely New Hampshire voters) studies provide Trump with some surprisingly good Granite State news. New Hampshire-based ARG sees a 48-43-4-1 percent Trump advantage over Clinton, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, while MassINC projects the Republican taking a 40-39-10-3 percent lead as Johnson actually touches double digits. The Boston Globe/Suffolk University data (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 500 NH likely voters) finds the two tied at 42 percent apiece. The UMass Lowell poll (Oct. 28-Nov. 2; 695 likely New Hampshire voters) also sees a 42-42-5-2 percent tie. All of this portends a major swing in Trump’s favor.

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Pressure Point Races

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 26, 2016 — It is widely believed that Republicans will keep the House majority in the Nov. 8 election, though Democrats will gain seats. Determining the party division change level is a point of conjecture, however.

Most believe Democrats will gain between 12-15 seats. More optimistic party strategists think they could top 20 districts. Taking the majority would require a net of more than 30 seats, because it also appears a small number of seats are poised to convert to the Republicans.

The Donald Trump presidential scenario continues to unfold, and while some polls actually show him creeping closer on the national popular vote track (Tied – IBD/TIPP, Oct. 18-23, 815 likely US voters; Trump +2 – Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 19-23, 1,500 likely US voters), the all-important state numbers continue to project Hillary Clinton leading in the critical states of Florida and Nevada, while the North Carolina numbers bounce about. Understanding that Trump needs all of the aforementioned states – not to mention each of the 23 normally Republican states, and he has trouble at least in Utah and Arizona – his victory prospects continue to dim daily.

The question looming over the down-ballot races is whether Republican turnout will be demoralized to the point of allowing Democrats to form a wave even though they are following an unpopular Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.

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Senate Trends

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 24, 2016 — While national pollsters are detecting a tightening presidential race, the US Senate campaigns are also beginning to reveal some potentially defining trends.

Safe Republicans & Democrats

Of the 34 in-cycle US Senate campaigns currently underway in 2016, half of them are in the safe category and won’t change. Nine Republican senators and eight Democrats are assured of re-election:

Republican senators: Shelby (AL), Murkowski (AK), Crapo (ID), Moran (KS), Hoeven (ND), Lankford (OK), Scott (SC), Thune (SD), Lee (UT)

Democrat sentors: California (Open Boxer), Maryland (Open Mikulski); Blumenthal (CT), Schatz (HI), Schumer (NY), Wyden (OR), Leahy (VT), Murray (WA)
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