Tag Archives: Tom Suozzi

“Squad” Member Bush Trailing;
Suozzi Wins Convincingly in NY-3; Malinowski Won’t Run; Special Election Scheduled in New York

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024

House

Freshman Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) has a competitive race on her hands.

MO-1: New Dem Primary Poll Finds Rep. Bush Trailing — The Remington Research Group has released a surprising new poll (Feb. 7-9; 401 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) that projects two-term incumbent Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), a member of the so-called House “Squad” or the most progressive left group in Congress, significantly trailing her Democratic primary opponent.

According to the Remington ballot test, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell, who was originally a candidate in the Senate race, enjoys a strong 50-28 percent lead over Bush. The congresswoman is also under an investigation from the House Ethics Committee over the potential misuse of campaign funds for personal gain.

Missouri’s 1st District is heavily Democratic, carrying a D+52 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, so the battle for re-election lies squarely in the nomination election. Bush, herself, came into office when defeating veteran Democratic Congressman Lacy Clay in the 2020 Democratic primary.

NY-3: Suozzi Wins — Former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) won a convincing 54-46 percent victory over Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip (R) last night even though five surveys from five different pollsters showed the race within a 1-4 point margin.

Rep-Elect Suozzi converts the seat back to the Democratic column, making the partisan division in the House an even closer 219R – 213D with three vacancies. It is probable that when all of the vacancies are filled after completing special elections in late April (NY-26), May (CA-20), and June (OH-6), the House will sit at 221R – 214D heading into the regular 2024 elections.

Once again, Democrats out-performing Republicans in early voting proved a reliable precursor as to which party had the electoral momentum, thus explaining how Suozzi exceeded the polling projections. Additionally, while poor weather was thought to keep the election day turnout low, it did not. A special election turnout of more than 174,000 voters is a strong display for any district. In comparison, just over 271,000 voted in the 2022 regular congressional election.

NJ-7: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Won’t Run — It appears that Democrats are staking their chances of upsetting Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) upon the former New Jersey executive director of the Working Families Party. The three Democratic candidates who have abandoned their own campaigns turned and endorsed Sue Altman. Now, former US Rep. Tom Malinowski, who the Democratic leadership had hoped to recruit into the race, has also declined to run and he, too, just endorsed Altman.

New Jersey’s 7th District is a politically marginal swing seat that the Daily Kos Elections site ranks as the 16th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district R+3, so these most recent developments, all of which help Rep. Kean, means the freshman congressman must be rated as a clear favorite for re-election.

NY-26: Governor Schedules Special Election — With New York Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) now officially resigned and his 26th District seat vacant, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced she is scheduling the replacement special election for April 30 to fill the remaining time left on the current term.

The district’s Democratic county chairmen have already chosen state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as their special election candidate. The Republican chairmen have yet to decide who will be their own standard bearer but regardless of the person selected, Kennedy will be favored to win the special. The seat is soundly Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates is as D+18. The Daily Kos Election site ranks NY-26 as the 78th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Though Kennedy is the clear favorite to win the special election, his tougher challenge may be the June 25 Democratic primary for the regular term. Former Town Supervisor Nate McMurray (D), who twice ran close races in the former 27th District that was collapsed in the latest reapportionment, says he will challenge Kennedy for the Democratic nomination to advance into the November 2024 general election.

Is RFK Jr. Going Libertarian? Conflicting Presidential Polling; Trone Expands Lead in Maryland; Special Election Ad Spending in NY

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 2, 2024

President

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr., currently running as an Independent general election candidate, switch to the Libertarian Party?

RFK Jr.: Flirting with Libertarian Party — Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and Libertarian Party leaders confirm they are discussing the possibility of Kennedy becoming the party’s presidential nominee. They are likely still a long way from coming to an agreement, though, mostly because some of Kennedy’s major issue positions such as climate change and gun control do not align with the party leadership; the move, however, makes practical sense for both entities.

First, being the Libertarian Party nominee would give Kennedy ballot access in all 50 states, something that is difficult for any Independent to obtain. The Libertarian Party was the only non-Democratic or Republican entity to achieve universal ballot status in 2020 (Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen appeared on the Libertarian line in 48 states and the District of Columbia; in Alabama and Tennessee, she appeared as an Independent), and they again would with Kennedy as their nominee.

Additionally, featuring RFK Jr. as their candidate, it is highly likely that the Libertarian Party would attract its highest historical number of votes. This is important for the organization’s future because many states base future party status upon performance in the national election.

Morning Consult/Bloomberg/Quinnipiac Polls: Any Given Poll — It’s a common saying in the NFL that “on any given Sunday any team can beat another.” A similar phrase appears applicable in political polling, as well. On almost any given day, we can find polls that disagree over outcome even though conducted during the same time period. Wednesday’s Morning Consult/Bloomberg News and Quinnipiac University are good examples.

The day began with Morning Consult/Bloomberg releasing their new regional survey series (Jan. 16-22; 4,596 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; online; part of regular tracking), which finds former President Donald Trump leading in all of the key swing states with margins between three (Arizona, Pennsylvania) at 10 percentage points (North Carolina). Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin each posted five-point Trump margins, while Georgia and Nevada were closer to the North Carolina number at plus-eight. Turning to their national track, MC/Bloomberg posted Trump to a two-point advantage over President Joe Biden in the head-to-head ballot test.

Yet in the Quinnipiac University release, a poll that was in the field within a similar same time frame as MC/Bloomberg, though earlier in January (Jan. 4-8; 1,680 US registered voters; live interview), President Biden posted his biggest national popular vote lead of any recent poll, 50-44 percent. When the Independent and minor party candidates were added in, such as RFK Jr., for example, the Biden edge shrinks to just two percentage points, which is much more in line with other pollsters.

Senate

Maryland: Rep. Trone Expands Lead — A new internal Hickman Analytics poll for the David Trone for Senate campaign (Jan. 18-24; 1,500 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) sees Trone, the 6th District Congressman, leading Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by a 45-34 percent margin in the open Democratic US Senate primary. The question, however, is for how long? The poll contained an over-sample of African Americans and females to emphasize the groups with which Rep. Trone is weakest.

Though the early numbers look good for the congressman, it must be understood that his campaign has spent well over $15 million to date, and $7 million alone just since November according to the Inside Elections publication. Trone began advertising a year before the primary election.

The Alsobrooks campaign has yet to run an ad. Since it is clear that she cannot match the congressman in an ad war with him self-financing the race from his huge personal wealth, the Alsobrooks strategists are waiting until late in the contest to unleash their own ad buys. She will be competitive as we get closer to the May 14th primary, so despite Trone’s polling and resource lead, this primary battle is far from over.

House

NY-3: Special Election Ad Spending Update — The Daily Kos Elections and AdImpact organizations charted the spending in the special congressional election to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) as we approach the Feb. 13 election. According to their data, the overall Democratic operation is outspending the encompassing Republican effort by a large amount, $9.6 million to $5.7 million. The two candidates are former US Rep. Tom Suozzi for the Democrats, and Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip for the GOP.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, however, is coming in late to help even the score. They have reserved $2.6 million in television and digital ads to bring the final days spending into parity. In terms of spending booked for the final two weeks, the Democratic advantage narrows to $2.8 to $2.44 million.

DeSantis Suspends Campaign; Louisiana Map Passes Legislature, State Changes Primary System;
NY-3 Poll Shows Tightening Race;

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 22, 2024

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ron DeSantis: Suspends Campaign: Two days before Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once thought to be former President Donald Trump’s principal Republican challenger, announced that he is suspending his national campaign and endorsed the former president.

While DeSantis suspended his campaign, he didn’t soften his attacks on both President Joe Biden and fellow GOP challenger Nikki Haley. “I look forward to working together with him [Trump] to beat Joe Biden, who is the worst and most corrupt president in the history of our country,” DeSantis said.

Referring to Haley, Gov. DeSantis was quoted as saying, “I signed a pledge to support the nominee, and I will honor that pledge. He [Mr. Trump] has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear, a repackaged form of warmed over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents.”

The GOP presidential fight now winnows to two major contenders, former President Trump, and ex-UN Ambassador Haley. Tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary may be close; Trump, however, will easily win in Nevada on Feb. 6, after which the campaign heads to Haley’s home state of South Carolina on Feb. 24 where polling finds Trump holding a 2:1 lead. If such margin holds, the Republican nomination will effectively be clinched before Super Tuesday on March 5.

House

Louisiana: Congressional Map Passes Legislature — The Louisiana state legislature agreed upon legislation to create a new congressional map as part of their special session to satisfy a court order. The bill now goes to Gov. Jeff Landry (R) for his signature. The agreed upon plan creates a new 6th District anchored in Baton Rouge, which then stretches through Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-Benton), virtually cutting it in half, to reach Shreveport. This satisfies the court order to create a second majority minority seat in the state (54 percent black). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, President Biden would have carried the new 6th by a 59-39 percent majority.

The big loser on this map is five-term Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge). He is now paired with Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) in a new 5th District seat that stretches along the Mississippi border on the south and east and going all the way to the Arkansas border on the north. The new 5th contains at least two-thirds of Rep. Letlow’s current constituency.

The partisan division will now award another seat to the Democrats, making the future Louisiana delegation 5R-2D. Under the plan, Speaker Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Reps. Troy Carter (D-New Orleans), and Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) all get safe seats from a partisan perspective.

NY-3: New Poll Shows Tight Special Election Race — A newly released Emerson College survey (Jan. 13-15; 975 registered NY-3 voters; 819 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees a close special election race developing between former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) and Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip (R). The ballot test shows a 45-43 percent split in favor of Suozzi.

The best news for the former Democratic congressman is that the most likely voters within the sample break for him on a 51-37 percent split. While the majority white vote (58 percent of the district population) favors Pilip 49-40 percent, the largest minority group, Asians (24 percent of the district population), overwhelmingly favor Suozzi (60-25 percent). Hispanics (13 percent of the population) are moving toward Pilip in a 44-33 percent clip.

Possibly the most troubling news for Suozzi are President Biden’s and Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) poor job approval ratings. Only one-third of voters, 33 percent, approve of President Biden’s performance in office (59 percent disapprove). Gov. Hochul’s numbers are even worse. Her approval index is 25:66 percent favorable to unfavorable. The special election is scheduled for Feb. 13.

States

Louisiana: Changing to Party Primary System — As part of the special Louisiana state legislative session, the House and Senate are sending a bill to Gov. Jeff Landry (R), one that he initiated, to change Louisiana’s primary voting system from a top-two jungle system to a partisan primary. The changes would take effect for the 2026 election and would institute a modified system where registered members of the political party must vote in their own primary while non-affiliated voters would have their choice of where to cast their ballot.

The change would mean, as in most other states, that only the political party nominees and qualified Independents would advance to the general election. The legislation would affect all federal races along with the state Supreme Court, the state school board, and the Public Service Commission. All other offices would continue with the current system of sending the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation to the general election.

Schiff Leads in Two Polls; Democrats Nominate Ex-Rep. Suozzi; Manning Won’t Seek Re-Election; Competitive North Carolina Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 11, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

California: Schiff Leads in Two Polls — A pair of mid-November polls were released of the California Senate race, and both find Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) leading the pack of open-seat candidates, but by a small margin. If these two polls prove accurate, both Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) would advance into a double-Democratic general election to be decided in November. Former baseball great Steve Garvey is a close third and still could be in position to claim second place in the March 5 all-party jungle primary if he could unite the Republican vote.

Emerson College (Nov. 11-14; 1,000 likely California primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Schiff to a 16-13-10-9 percent advantage over Porter, Garvey, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), respectively. The University of California at Berkeley through the Public Policy Institute of California (Nov. 9-16; 1,113 likely California voters; online) conducted an extensive survey that included a ballot test question about the US Senate race. Their results, similar to those Emerson produced, projects Rep. Schiff leading the field by a larger 21-16-10-8 percent spread over Porter, Garvey, and Lee.

House

NY-3: Democrats Nominate Ex-Rep. Suozzi — Though the timing took a bit longer than expected, the Nassau County Democratic Party chairman announced late last week that former US Rep. Tom Suozzi will be the special election nominee to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R). Republicans are expected to name their candidate early this week.

While the prevailing wisdom is that Suozzi is a lock to convert the seat for the Democrats, an Opinion Diagnostics survey suggests the race may be closer than one might expect. The survey, conducted for financial executive Kellen Curry’s (R) campaign (Nov. 30; 900 NY-3 registered voters; text & online) found Suozzi scoring only between 43.3 and 44.9 percent against three potential Republican special election nominees. The three Republicans record percentages between 38.0 and 39.9 percent, thus signaling a potentially competitive special election campaign. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) called the election for Feb. 13.

NC-6: Rep. Manning Won’t Seek Re-Election — Two-term North Carolina US Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) announced late last week that she will not file for re-election. Saying, “I would love nothing more than to continue representing our community in Congress. Unfortunately, the egregiously gerrymandered maps do not make this race competitive, and I cannot in good conscience ask people to invest their time, resources and efforts in a campaign that is rigged against us. However, if the impending lawsuits are successful and the general assembly is forced to draw fair congressional districts, I will seek to continue my service to our community.”

The new 6th District would have voted for former President Donald Trump in a 57-41 percent count. Under the Democratic court map, the 6th supported President Joe Biden with a 56-43 percent margin. North Carolina redistricting had gone back and forth for a decade between the Republican legislature and the Democratic state Supreme Court. With the Republicans winning the court races in 2022, the court and legislature now approach redistricting legislation from largely the same viewpoint.

Rep. Manning’s retirement means 36 seats are now open for the next election. A total of 22 of the open seats are currently Democratic held, 13 come from the Republican column, and one new seat has been created under the new Alabama court-drawn redistricting plan.

Governor

North Carolina: Lt. Gov. Robinson Still in Front — The open North Carolina governor’s post will feature one of the most competitive such campaigns in the nation. The likely party nominees are Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D). Early polling has given Robinson a slight lead, and the new East Carolina University survey (Nov. 29-Dec. 1; 915 North Carolina registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) draws a similar conclusion. The new numbers find Robinson posting a 44-40 percent general election lead over AG Stein.

Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Robinson is completing his first term as lieutenant governor, while Stein will be serving his eighth year as attorney general. Stein’s most recent victory was a razor-thin 50.1 – 49.9 percent in 2020 and further suggests that he begins this gubernatorial race in an underdog position.

Christie Out in Maine; Florida Redistricting; Santos Out, Now What?; Maloy Challenged in Utah; House Retirements Reversal

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023

Senate

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Chris Christie: Fails to Qualify for Maine Ballot — Due in part to a notary clerical error, GOP presidential candidate Chris Christie has failed to qualify for the Maine Super Tuesday primary scheduled for March 5, 2024. It remains to be seen if the Christie campaign will attempt to access the ballot via court order. Christie is the only significant GOP candidate not to meet the Maine ballot qualification requirement of submitting 2,000 valid registered voter petition signatures.

House

Florida Redistricting: Appeals Court Overturns Map Rejection — A Florida appeals court overturned a lower court ruling that declared the state’s congressional map as an illegal racial gerrymander. This means the ruling that the northern portion of the map be redrawn is nullified. An appeal to the state Supreme Court is likely. Even if the plaintiffs move forward, however, the time it would take for the high panel to hear the complaint could well extend past the April 26 candidate filing deadline. This means the current map now has a relatively strong chance of lasting at least through the 2024 election cycle.

In its ruling, the appellate directive stated, “The constitution cannot demand that all voters are treated equally without regard to race and at the same time demand that voters are treated differently based on race.” The plaintiffs want a majority minority district reinstated in northern Florida. In the previous decade a 5th District that stretched from Tallahassee into Jacksonville was drawn to elect an African American Representative.

NY-3’s Rep. Santos Expelled: What Now? — Based upon the House Ethics Committee report about now former Rep. George Santos’ (R-Long Island) alleged unethical and illegal activities, the House on a 311-114 count reached the necessary two-thirds vote of those present and voting to expel the freshman member. A special election will now be called to fill the balance of the term. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will have 10 days in which to schedule the vote. According to New York governing parameters, the eligible election days are either Feb. 20 or 27.

Under the Empire State procedure, the affected county party chairmen have the power to nominate their special election standard bearers. Because Nassau County comprises three quarters of the 3rd District, only one individual will effectively select the nominee for the various parties. Since the county chairmen votes are weighted based upon entity population, the Nassau chairman can out-vote the Queens Borough chairman.

The Democrats are apparently going to announce their nominee today, which will very likely be former Congressman Tom Suozzi. He will be favored in the special general against whomever the Republican chairman chooses. It is less clear what action the Republican chairman will take and when.

Suozzi represented the 3rd District for three terms beginning in 2017. He did not seek re-election in 2022 because he launched a long-shot campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination and was unsuccessful.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-3 as D+4, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a more favorable Democratic partisan lean, 56.4D – 42.0R. President Joe Biden posted a 53.6 – 45.4 percent victory here opposite Donald Trump in 2020. Republicans scored a rebound in 2022, however. Gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin carried NY-3 with a 56-44 percent margin despite losing statewide. The Republicans also saw their Nassau County Executive candidate unseat a Democratic incumbent.

UT-2: New Rep. Maloy Already Challenged — While Utah Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) was just sworn into office last week after winning the Nov. 21 special election, she has already drawn a 2024 Republican primary opponent. Army Reserve colonel and technology company executive Colby Jenkins (R) declared his congressional candidacy against the new congresswoman on Friday.

Jenkins says he will pursue the controversial ruling that awarded Maloy a ballot position even though she registered to vote after the candidate filing deadline. At this point, Rep. Maloy should be favored for renomination, but it is likely that she will already become embroiled in a new campaign. The Utah state primary is scheduled for June 25.

House Members: Re-Election Announcements — While we saw a spate of House retirements in November (13 in all), five members on Friday declared for re-election. Reps. Ken Calvert (R-CA), Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), Chris Smith (R-NJ) second in House seniority and returning to seek a 23rd term, Frank Lucas (R-OK), and Joe Wilson (R-SC) are en masse reversing the retirement trend.

Pompeo Declines to Run;
2022 Candidate Won’t Return;
NY House Races

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 18, 2023

President

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

Mike Pompeo: Won’t Run; Youngkin Now on Hold — Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) announced Friday that he will not join the 2024 presidential field. Only a long-shot victory path existed for the former Secretary, CIA Director, and US representative from Kansas. Additionally, according to a New York Times report, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has put his fledgling presidential effort on hold and is now apparently unlikely to enter the race.

To date, the only announced candidates are former President Donald Trump, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has filed a presidential exploratory committee. While President Biden has repeatedly said he “plans to run again,” he has still not made a formal announcement. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and ex-Vice President Mike Pence are both expected to join the campaign in the next few weeks.

Senate

Arizona: ’22 Candidate Lamon Won’t Return — Former solar company CEO Jim Lamon, who placed second in the 2022 US Senate race with 28.1 percent of the Republican primary vote, says he will not return for another run this year and is instead endorsing Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R). Several other Republicans, including 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and senatorial nominee Blake Masters, are reportedly considering the race.

The 2024 Senate race, expected to be one of the most competitive in the country, likely will feature a three-way contest with incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema running as either an Independent or the nominee of the No Labels Party, which has qualified for the ballot in Arizona. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is the only announced Democratic contender and is fast becoming a consensus candidate.

House

NY-3: Ex-Rep. Suozzi Now Considering — Looking at the negative media circus that has surrounded freshman New York Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island), which certainly lessens his chances of winning re-election in 2024, former Congressman Tom Suozzi (D), who left the House to run a long-shot 2022 campaign for governor, confirms that he is now considering making a congressional comeback attempt next year.

Regardless of whether Suozzi runs, the NY-3 race will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. It is probable that the Republican leadership will support a new GOP candidate in hopes of saving the seat. Democrats need only to convert five seats to recapture the House majority, and this race is certainly their number one target.

NY-22: New Candidate Emerges — Last November, freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) held the state’s new 22nd Congressional District that former Congressman John Katko (R) represented for eight years before retiring. Then, and now, the Syracuse anchored seat leans toward the Democrats (FiveThirtyEight: D+2; Dave’s Redistricting App: 53.4D – 43.1R partisan lean) but has elected a Republican to the US House in the last five consecutive elections.

Late last year, Manlius Town Councilwoman Katelyn Kriesel (D) announced that she would compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge Rep. Williams. Her campaign proved short-lived, however, since she dropped her bid at the beginning of March. Now, a new Democratic contender has emerged. DeWitt Town Councilwoman and US Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood (D) came forward at the end of last week to enter the race.

Count on this race being highly competitive in the 2024 general election cycle no matter who ultimately becomes the Democratic nominee.

Zeldin’s Contemplation; Dems Positioning for Next Race in NY; Five Competitive Candidates in Chicago Mayoral Race; McDaniel Re-Elected as RNC Chair

By Jim Ellis — Jan. 31, 2023

Senate

Former NY Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley)

New York: Ex-Rep. Zeldin’s Contemplation — Former Long Island US Congressman Lee Zeldin (R), who held Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) to a highly competitive 53-47 percent statewide re-election victory in November, has seen his name being bandied about for many potential positions. Some Republican leaders want him to challenge New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) next year, which would likely be a political suicide run in a presidential year from one of the Democrats’ strongest states, while others are talking up the possibility of him running for Suffolk County Executive.

This latter election will occur later this year and is an open race since Democratic incumbent Steve Bellone is ineligible to run for a third term. Considering Zeldin carried his home county by a 59-41 percent margin in the governor’s race and represented Suffolk in Congress for eight years, he would clearly be the Republicans’ strongest candidate for such a position. At this point, Zeldin has been quiet about what future political plans, if any, he may be contemplating.

House

NY-3: Dems Positioning for Next Race — While the fate of beleaguered freshman US Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) continues as a daily media story, Democrats are beginning to position themselves for what could be a special election if Santos is eventually forced to resign or run in next cycle’s regular election. Some local Democratic leaders are reportedly attempting to convince former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), to make a political comeback for his former position.

Suozzi left the House last year to make a head-scratching run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, a race he had scarcely little potential to win. So far, the former congressman has been non-committal about a future District 3 race. On the other hand, the man who Rep. Santos defeated in November, George Zimmerman (D), is preparing for another run. Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan (D), who lost the congressional nomination to Zimmerman in 2022, has already announced that he will run for the seat in the next election.

Cities

Chicago: Poll Shows Five Competitive Candidates — There has been a lot of attention paid to the Chicago mayoral race because the incumbent is in trouble and the election is fast approaching, now less than a month away on Feb. 28.

A new Victory Research survey (Jan. 23-25; 806 likely Chicago voters; live interview) finds former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and current Mayor Lori Lightfoot in a virtual tie at 19 percent support apiece. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) is a close third with 17 percent, while Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, and businessman Willie Wilson follow with 15 and 12 percent, respectively. This shows that two of these candidates will head to a runoff election on April 4, but it remains unclear as to which pair will advance.

Political Parties

Republican National Committee: Ronna McDaniel Re-Elected — On Friday, RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel was easily re-elected to her position, capturing 66 percent support among the 168 voting members. Former President Donald Trump originally appointed McDaniel and continued to support her through this election. California National Committeewoman Harmeet Dhillon, who criticized McDaniel for the party losing touch with the grassroots and drew support from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, finished a distant second with 53 votes. My Pillow company founder Mike Lindell received four votes. McDaniel will now serve through the 2024 presidential election.