Tag Archives: Texas

Super Tuesday Voting

Nikki Haley suspends her campaign. (CBS video)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 6, 2024

President

Biden, Trump: Almost Clean Sweeps — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both took major steps forward to clinching renomination with almost clean sweeps in the Super Tuesday voting entities. Both men were respectively one entity short of winning every primary and caucus.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley topped former President Donald Trump in the Vermont Republican primary, and President Biden lost the American Samoa Caucus to unknown candidate Jason Palmer. Irrespective of those bumps along the nomination road, both President Biden and former President Trump are on track to become their party’s presumptive nominee before March 20.

Haley, calling for Trump to mend fences with those who supported her throughout the primary process, announced this morning that she was suspending her campaign for the presidency. “The time has now come to suspend my campaign,” she said. “Our congress is dysfunctional and only getting worse. … Our world is on fire because of
America’s retreat. If we retreat further, there will be more war, not less. … We must bind together as Americans. Our country is too precious to let our differences divide us. It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that.”

Senate

California: Schiff, Garvey Advance — Because the California counting system requires such a long period due to signature verification for the millions of mail-in ballots cast throughout the country’s most populous state, it may be several weeks before we have final totals. That means some of the many competitive races on the ballot may be undecided for quite a long period though most contests already have a projected winner.

The state’s premier campaign is the open Senate race where appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is not seeking a full term. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) chose her as the interim senator when incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) passed away in September.

With more than half the votes recorded, both Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and retired baseball star Steve Garvey (R) have been projected to capture ballot positions in the general election. At this point, Rep. Schiff has 33 percent of the vote to Garvey’s 32 percent. They defeated Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) who attracted 14 and seven percent of the vote, respectively. The final tallies could change, but it appears clear that Schiff and Garvey will continue onto the general election while all other contenders are now officially eliminated.

Texas: Allred Wins Outright — In a result that would have to register as a mild surprise, US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) secured majority support in the crowded US Senate Democratic primary to clinch the party nomination outright. He will now challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in November.

House

Alabama: Moore Wins; CD-2 in Runoffs — The 1st District paired incumbents battle ended differently than polling suggested as Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) recorded a close victory over fellow Congressman Jerry Carl (R-Mobile). The two were tossed into the same district as a result of the court-ordered redistricting map designed to create a new majority minority seat. Rep. Moore, at this writing, looks to have secured a 52-48 percent victory margin.

Though Carl represents 59 percent of the new district and Moore the remainder, Moore performed much better in the portion of the new district that he currently represents. Therefore, Moore’s strong margins in familiar territory were enough to overcome Carl’s Mobile-area base. Rep. Moore is now a lock to win the general election.

The new open 2nd District will, as expected, feature runoff elections for both parties. The Democrats will host a secondary runoff race between former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures and state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels (D-Montgomery).

For the Republicans, ex-state legislator Dick Brewbaker has qualified for the runoff but a tight battle for the second position exists between conservative attorney Caroleene Dobson and state Sen. Greg Albritton (R-Baldwin County), and it will require political overtime to determine which of the latter two advances.

The runoff elections are scheduled for April 2. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to clinch the seat in November.

Governor

North Carolina: Nominees Chosen Today — As expected, the open governor’s primary yielded a general election that will feature Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for the Republicans and Attorney General Josh Stein as the Democratic nominee. Both easily won their respective primary elections last night. A tight general election is forecast.

Super Tuesday Preview – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Today is Super Tuesday, and while presidential nomination races are occurring in 16 states and one territory we continue our look into the five states holding their full ballot 2024 nomination elections. Yesterday, we analyzed Alabama, Arkansas, and California. Today, North Carolina and Texas.

North Carolina

(Click on map to see full size.)

Aside from the presidential primary, the open governor’s race leads the Tar Heel State ballot today. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so each party hosts a primary to nominate a successor.

In what will probably prove to be the most competitive of the 2024 governors’ races, the North Carolina electorate will nominate candidates tonight. Very likely, we will see the respective Democratic and Republican primaries turn to Attorney General Josh Stein (D) and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R). North Carolina, which always hosts very close statewide campaigns, will again do so in this open governor’s battle.

The new North Carolina congressional map is the Republicans’ saving grace for the 2024 US House picture. The party is projected to gain at least three seats in the Tar Heel delegation and most of the districts will see nominees emerge tonight. The state does have a runoff rule, but with only a 30 percent threshold it typically does not come into play.

The new map makes freshman Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District more competitive, and Republicans have a two-way primary between two-time congressional nominee Sandy Smith and businesswoman and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout. Rep. Davis will be favored in the general election, but we can expect a much more competitive political environment to develop in this Virginia border seat under the new district confines.

Incumbents Deborah Ross (D-Raleigh), Greg Murphy (R-Greenville), Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough), Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk), David Rouzer (R-Wilmington), Richard Hudson (R-Southern Pines), and Alma Adams (D-Charlotte) will have little trouble winning tonight and in November.

Freshman incumbent Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock), who unseated then-Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the 2022 Republican primary, faces primary competition from mortgage broker Christian Reagan. In the general election, state Rep. Caleb Rudow (D-Asheville), unopposed in tonight’s Democratic primary, will challenge Edwards. We can expect to see some competition in this race, but the first-term incumbent is the clear favorite to win a second term.

Redistricting has created four open seats, two of which because the incumbents are opposing each other for state attorney general. Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) leaves open a safely Republican seat that will largely be decided tonight. Six Republicans are on the ballot with the leading candidates appearing as state Rep. John Bradford (R-Mecklenburg County), former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom, and Baptist pastor Mark Harris who ran in 2018 and ostensibly won the general election but was barred from taking office due to vote fraud charges.

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman) is retiring after serving what will be 10 full terms and leaves basically a two-way contest in his wake for the safely Republican 10th District. State Rep. Grey Mills (R-Mooresville) and firearms manufacturer Pat Harrigan, previously a candidate in the Charlotte-anchored District 14, are battling for the party nomination tonight. The winner will succeed McHenry in the next Congress.

The most crowded open seats lie in the Greensboro area’s 6th District where Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) is retiring because the new 6th is unwinnable for a Democrat. In fact, the party is not even fielding a candidate. Therefore, the winner among the six contenders vying for the party nomination, including former Congressman Mark Walker, will have an unopposed run in November.

The open 13th District, where Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) is bypassing a difficult re-election run to instead challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in 2026, features 13 Republican candidates. This is the most likely primary that evolves into a runoff election because there is no clear leader. The eventual GOP nominee wins in November, but it is probable we will not see a nominee emerge tonight.

The most likely open seat nominee is state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) who is the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination in the new Charlotte anchored 14th CD. He should have little trouble capturing the district in the general election.

Texas

Sen. Ted Cruz (R) stands for a third term and will easily win renomination tonight. For the Democrats, the party faithful could send the top two finishers, likely US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) and state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio), into a secondary runoff election.

To win the Texas Senate nomination outright, a candidate would have to receive majority support. With a dozen candidates on the ballot, it will be tough for anyone to break the 50 percent threshold. If a runoff proves necessary, the election will be held on May 28. Though the Democrats will field a credible opponent to Sen. Cruz — most likely Rep. Allred — it will be a tall order to win a Texas statewide election in a presidential year especially with Republicans pulling stronger support among Hispanics.

The congressional delegation features three open seats, all in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. Rep. Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth) is retiring after serving what will be 28 years in the House. The heir-apparent for the seat appears to be Tarrant County state Rep. Craig Goldman who could win the Republican primary outright tonight.

In the neighboring 26th District, veteran Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point) is retiring after what will be 11 terms in office. A major primary battle is occurring here that will likely head to a runoff election. Businessman Brandon Gill has former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, but that will not likely be enough to propel him over the 50 percent mark. Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey’s son, Scott Armey a former Denton County Judge (Executive), is in the race, making a return to elective politics after last being on the ballot in 2002.

Rep. Allred leaves his Dallas-anchored seat to a very crowded 10-person Democratic primary. A runoff here is likely, too, with state Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Dallas) and former Dallas City Councilman Kevin Felder possibly being the top two Democratic contenders. A runoff here is almost a certainty with the eventual Democratic nominee having the inside track in the general election.

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who lost badly in the Houston mayoral runoff in December, faces a tough primary challenge from former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards; this is a race worth paying attention to. We will also see a general election rematch develop in District 34 between two veterans of the House, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and former US Rep. Mayra Flores (R).

Trump Projected to Win Electoral College; California Primary Poll Jockeying; Texas Senate Race Numbers; NJ-8 Dueling Dem Polls

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Decision Desk HQ: Projects Trump at 312 EVs — The Decision Desk HQ, in association with The Hill newspaper, has forecast a new 50-state electoral vote projection. All swing states are averaged based upon data from at least five recent polls. The new estimates give former President Donald Trump his largest-ever Electoral College vote lead, 312-226.

The key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all landing in the Trump camp according to DDHQ. To win the 2024 election, Trump needs to convert states that equal 35 electoral votes. According to this projection, Trump is improving his stance by 80 electoral votes when compared with his 2020 performance.

Senate

California: Primary Battle Over Second Place — Emerson College surveyed the California electorate in a partnership with The Hill newspaper and the Inside California Politics blog (Feb. 16-18; 1,000 registered California voters; 935 likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) again found US Rep. Adam Schiff (D) leading the open US Senate field, this time with 28 percent of the vote. In second place, and for the first time with a sizable advantage over the third-place finisher, is former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) with 22 percent. Following are Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 16 percent and nine percent, respectively.

The poll has a number of positive points for Garvey. Aside from the Emerson/Hill data suggesting he secures a general election slot, he does well with older voters. He registers a 33 percent preference total from those over 70 years of age, which is typically the highest turnout sector, and scores in second position with who voters believe would best handle the crime, homelessness, war in Israel, and immigration issues, while rating only three points below who would best handle abortion.

Additionally, the third-place finisher, Rep. Porter, does best with the youth vote, but this segment has the poorest participation history.

The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. The top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained will advance to the general election. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D), who Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), is not running for a full term.

Texas: Rep. Allred Establishes Strong Primary Lead, Cruz Likewise in General — YouGov, polling for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (Feb. 2-12; 1,313 registered Texas voters; 1,200 likely Texas primary voters; online), tested the Lone Star State electorate for the coming March 5 primary election, and found US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), who has been using his resource advantage to advertise heavily, exceeding the 50 percent threshold within the Democratic primary segment. According to the YouGov results, Allred records a 52 percent preference figure as compared to state Sen. Roland Gutierrez’s (D-San Antonio) 14 percent.

Former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez and state Rep. Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) register support figures of only five and two percent.

Within the general election sample, however, the tables turn. Here, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) records his best polling stance of the current campaign, with a 46-32 percent margin over Rep. Allred. The Daily Kos Elections site analysts criticized the poll because the questionnaire did not assign a party label with each candidate. They reason that Allred would have received better support had such been the case.

Two points of disagreement: first, the primary question was asked before the general election question, thus the voters were already told that Allred was a Democrat. Second, it is more likely that Sen. Cruz, who has not been overly popular in the state, would have actually benefited more with party labels since Texas has been a solid state for the GOP since the early 1990s.

House

NJ-8: Dueling Internal Dem Primary Polls — Last week, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) released the results of his internal TargetSmart survey that posted him to a relatively strong 46-22 percent advantage over Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in their quest for the Democratic nomination. On Wednesday, the Bhalla campaign countered with their own poll, this one from GQR Research another highly rated polling firm. This data (released Feb. 20; 403 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters) finds a much different ballot test, with the incumbent leading only 44-41 percent.

These polls, seemingly both well conducted, are far apart in how they view the race. This will be another of the most interesting primary contests to watch during our current election cycle.

Manchin Declines Presidential Run; Tester Up in Latest Montana Poll; Texas Polls Bouncing About;
NC Governor’s Race a Dead Heat; Nevada Redistricting Push Fails

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024

President

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

Sen. Joe Manchin: No Presidential Run — After testing the political waters for a minor party presidential run, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) over the weekend announced that he will not be pursuing a national candidacy. While not said, it is clear that the task of obtaining ballot position in enough states to be competitive proved daunting, and at this point in the cycle very unlikely to be achieved. Without a party label, it is extremely difficult, as even Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is finding, to qualify fully for the national campaign.

Senate

Montana: Tester Up in Latest Senate Poll — Survey USA, polling for the NonStop Local organization (Feb. 12-15; 700 North Carolina adults; 612 registered North Carolina voters; 549 likely voters) tested the Montana electorate shortly after Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) announced his short-lived Senate campaign. The results provided good news for Sen. Jon Tester (D), who faces the political winds in his face this year. Against both aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy and Rosendale, Sen. Tester posted identical 49-40 percent leads. Earlier surveys found a much closer ballot test.

Rep. Rosendale’s abrupt exit from the Senate race virtually clears the GOP field for Sheehy, who already has the entire Republican state and national establishment backing his campaign. The Montana race is a top-tier GOP challenge contest and one of the states likely to determine which party will claim the Senate majority in the next Congress.

Texas: Senate Polls Bouncing Around — We’re already seeing very predictable Texas Senate polling. Recent polls have shown a tight race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas). It is expected that the various ballot tests will show a close contest all the way to election day, at which point Sen. Cruz will pull away and post a 5-plus point victory. Additionally, while Rep. Allred has been very successful on the fundraising front, he still must navigate through a contested Democratic primary that has a good chance of advancing into a runoff election.

The National Public Affairs Republican polling firm (Feb. 6-8; 807 likely Texas voters; live interview & text) is the latest to survey the Texas electorate. While the data produces a three point Republican advantage on the generic congressional question and former President Donald Trump tops President Joe Biden at 42-35 percent, the Senate race between Cruz and Allred finds the two tied at 44 percent apiece. Previously, we saw chronological polls giving Cruz a nine-point (YouGov), two-point (Emerson College), and six-point (YouGov) lead.

Governor

North Carolina: Open Gov Race a Dead Heat — Of the eleven 2024 gubernatorial campaigns on the ballot, the North Carolina contest is clearly the most competitive. With Gov. Roy Cooper (D) ineligible to seek a third term, it appears that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are headed to the general election.

East Carolina University just completed a poll of the state (Feb. 9-12; 1,207 registered North Carolina voters; Interactive Voice Response system) and posts Robinson to a 53-13-7 percent lead over attorney and former prosecutor Bill Graham and state Treasurer Dale Folwell in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, AG Stein records a similarly strong 57-7 percent margin over retired state Supreme Court Judge Mike Morgan.

Turning to the general election, this polling universe yields a 41-41 percent tie between the two men. North Carolina typically features tight statewide races, and this open governor’s race appears to be consistent with such voter history.

States

Nevada: Redistricting Ballot Prop Rejected — Proponents of creating a redistricting commission were dealt a major setback at the end of last week. Two measures that would begin the process to remove redistricting power from the legislature and governor and create a citizens’ commission to draw maps can’t appear on the ballot this year according to a Nevada state court ruling. The ruling cited the Nevada statue stating ballot initiatives must demonstrate that adopting the measure will pay for itself. The redistricting commission proposition lacked such proof.

In Nevada, ballot measures must pass in consecutive elections in order to be adopted. Therefore, it appears this support group will have to wait until 2026 and 2028 to attempt qualifying the proposition since the latest court ruling will likely prohibit the supporters from obtaining the 102,362 valid petition signatures required for ballot qualification in this election year.

DCCC’s Initial Targets

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024

House

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released their first targeting list entitled “Red to Blue,” though the group of 17 House districts actually contained one already in the Democratic column.

In alphabetical order by state, the list of 17 includes 16 Republican districts where the DCCC has endorsed a Democratic candidate:

STATE DISTRICT INCUMBENT DCCC CANDIDATE
Arizona 13 DUARTE, JOHN ENGEL, KIRSTEN
California 6 CISCOMANI, JUAN GRAY, ADAM
California 22 VALADAO, DAVID SALAS, RUDY
California 27 GARCIA, MIKE WHITESIDES, GEORGE
California 41 CALVERT, KEN ROLLINS, WILL
Colorado 3 OPEN FRISCH, ADAM
Iowa 1 MILLER-MEEKS, M. BOHANNON, CHRISTINE
Iowa 3 NUNN, ZACH BACCAM, LANON
Michigan 7 OPEN HERTEL, CURTIS
Michigan 1 ZINKE, RYAN TRANEL, MONICA
Nebraska 2 BACON, DON VARGAS, TONY
New York 3 SPECIAL ELECTION SUOZZI, TOM
New York 17 LAWLER, MIKE JONES, MONDAIRE
New York 19 MOLINARO, MARC RILEY, JOSH
Oregon 5 CHAVEZ-DeREMER, L. BYNUM, JANELLE
Texas 15 de la CRUZ, MONICA VALLEJO, MICHELLE
Virginia 2 KIGGANS, JEN SMASAL, MISSY COTTER

The Michigan district included in the above list is that of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). Her run for the Senate leaves her central Michigan seat open, but the Democrats winning here in 2024 would not result in a party division gain.

President Joe Biden carried only six the 16 Republican districts, and the FiveThirtyEight data organization provided a numerical rank so as to consider lean Democratic in those same six districts. Therefore, on this list, the half-dozen names below should be viewed as the most achievable targets, which, as you will see, are California and New York dominant.

They are:

  1. CA-13 (Duarte)
  2. CA-22 (Valadao)
  3. CA-27 (Garcia)
  4. NY-3 (Special election; Santos)
  5. NY-17 (Lawler)
  6. OR-5 (Chavez-DeRemer)

This underscores that the key states to determine the next House majority are the Golden and Empire States.

Most of the endorsed Democratic candidates (12 in the 16 Republican held seats) previously ran and lost their race in 2022. A total of 10 unsuccessfully opposed the current GOP House incumbent, while two lost other races (Tom Suozzi, Governor; Mondaire Jones, NY-10).

Curiously, some other vulnerable districts were excluded from this first release. Likely, this is due to one of three reasons: the DCCC has not yet endorsed a candidate; they don’t see a sufficiently competitive challenger within the current field; or, they perceive the Republican incumbent as being too strong.

They are:

DISTRICT CANDIDATE
AZ-1 David Schweikert
CA-40 Young Kim
CA-45 Michelle Steel
FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna
FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar
MI-10 John James
NJ-7 Tom Kean Jr.
NY-4 Anthony D’Esposito
NY-22 Brandon Williams
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-10 Scott Perry
WI-1 Bryan Steil

Most of the members included within this latter group will be added to later target lists. The fact that Rep. Steil’s name is not yet appended to the “Red to Blue” listing suggests that the Wisconsin State Supreme Court may not order a redraw of the congressional map this cycle. Keeping Rep. Steil’s congressional district intact would give him little incentive to launch a statewide campaign against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).

At this point in the new redistricting process, Republicans are likely gaining a net one seat, but the New York redraw hasn’t yet occurred.

The GOP is assuredly gaining three seats from North Carolina, while the Democrats look to increase by one each in Alabama and Louisiana. Since the Georgia and Florida maps will not likely change for the 2024 election portends good news for Republicans; likewise for the Democrats in New Mexico.

Sen. Cruz in Potentially Competitive Re-Election Bid; Senate Challenge in New Mexico; Rep. Susie Lee Draws Opponent in Nevada; Redistricting Developments in Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 29, 2024

Senate

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Texas: Tight New Poll — Emerson College just released the results of their latest Texas statewide survey (Jan. 13-15; 1,315 registered Texas voters; interactive voice response system & online) that finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) heading into a potentially competitive general election. The ballot test found the senator leading US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) by a slight 42-40 percent margin, and holding only a one-point, 41-40 percent split over state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio). Simultaneously, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden 49-41 percent.

The poll is not particularly surprising in that Sen. Cruz’s personal favorability numbers have never been particularly good. However, there are a number of things that favor Sen. Cruz: the presidential election turnout model, Trump beating Biden in the state, the Biden energy policies being detrimental to Texas, and the southern border controversy — all play politically to Sen. Cruz’s favor. Therefore, despite the likelihood that we will see many close Texas Senate polls between now and the November election, the actual votes will favor Sen. Cruz winning re-election by a relatively comfortable margin.

New Mexico: Republicans Making Move to Challenge Sen. Heinrich — In order to expand what is a favorable Republican US Senate map, a prominent member of the GOP announced her candidacy. Nella Domenici, a former hedge fund CEO and daughter of the late six-term Sen. Pete Domenici (R), is the latest Republican to declare for the seat. Last week, former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales switched parties to enter the GOP Senate primary. The eventual winner of the June 4 Republican primary will challenge two-term incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D).

The senator is favored for re-election, but Republicans improving among Hispanics could make this a competitive contest. New Mexico’s Hispanics register 50.2 percent of the state population universe according to the latest US Census report. The last time Republicans won a New Mexico statewide race was in 2014 when then-Gov. Susanna Martinez was re-elected. An August Public Policy Polling survey showed President Biden topping former President Trump 49-41 percent, suggesting the state could become competitive in the national election.

House

NV-3: GOP Ex-State Treasurer Announces for House — Earlier this month, Republicans lost their top congressional recruit in state Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama (R-Las Vegas), who instead of running for the House will seek re-election to what could become a tight Nevada Assembly. Kasama was clearly the top contender for the GOP nomination in a seat that is the most winnable for a Republican (FiveThirtyEight data organization rating: D+2) of the three Las Vegas competitive districts.

Now, former State Treasurer Dan Schwartz (R) is coming to the forefront to announce his congressional candidacy. While winning a statewide position in 2014, Schwartz has not fared well since, losing landslide races in his attempts to be elected governor, lieutenant governor, and a previous run for the 3rd Congressional District. It is likely the Republicans will have to recruit a stronger candidate against Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) if they are to move this race into the top tier.

Wisconsin: Congressional District Lines Challenged — A citizens group that famed Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias represents filed suit before the Wisconsin state Supreme Court arguing that the panel’s rejection of the state Senate and Assembly maps compels them to reconsider striking down the state’s congressional map.

According to the Daily Kos Elections site’s legal analysts, the legislature’s maps were returned for a re-draw because the court rejected the “least change” (from the previous map) practice that the legislature relied upon to draw the 2021 maps. The Elias group’s lawsuit maintains that the congressional map was also drawn under the “least change” practice, and therefore should be redrawn.

So far, however, the court has not taken action against the congressional map and time is running out. The secretary of state has informed the court that unless new maps are enacted into law by March 15, they will not be able to convert the electoral system in time for the 2024 election.

Ohio’s Moreno Endorsed by Trump;
NJ Polling Battles; Alaska’s Peltola Could Again Get Boost From RCV; Census Projections for 2030

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023

Senate

Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (R) gets Trump’s endorsement.

Ohio: Trump Makes an Endorsement — As has been expected for several months, former President Donald Trump, the leader for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, signaled his official support to one of the three major Republican US Senate contenders Monday. While a Survey USA poll earlier in the week (Dec. 8-12; 573 likely Ohio Republican primary voters; online) found businessman Bernie Moreno trailing both Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) by a 33-18-12 percent margin, Moreno man did finish in first place for the Trump endorsement. Previously, two other surveys found Moreno holding a slight lead in the primary race.

The Ohio primary is scheduled for March 19, and promises to be a highly competitive nomination campaign. The eventual winner of the plurality election will face three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the general election.

New Jersey: Competing Poll Places Rep. Kim First — Though indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) for now remains in the 2024 Senate race, the Democratic primary battle appears to be a contest between US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and the state’s First Lady, Tammy Murphy. Approximately a month ago, Public Policy Polling released a survey favoring Murphy for the party nomination by a large 40-21 percent spread.

Rep. Kim released his internal Breakthrough Campaigns survey Monday (Dec. 7-14; 1,004 NJ likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that produced a virtual mirror-like result. This study found Rep. Kim leading Ms. Murphy, 45-22 percent. Sen. Menendez, as was the case in the PPP survey, languishes in single digits. The dueling wide discrepancy polls suggest the statewide Democratic primary will be an interesting one to chart. The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 4.

House

AK-AL: New Polling Favorable for Rep. Peltola — Once again, Alaska’s Ranked Choice Voting system may re-elect at-large Democratic US Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) even though more voters select a Republican candidate. Under the state’s primary system, four candidates advance into the general election. If no candidate receives majority support in the November vote, Ranked Choice Voting takes effect.

The Remington Research Group conducted a new poll for Republican candidate Nick Begich III (Dec. 11-14; 672 likely Alaska primary voters; live interview) and the ballot test finds Rep. Peltola attracting 42 percent support. Begich follows in second place with 28 percent. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) is third with nine percent, while Libertarian Chris Bye, running on the No Labels ballot line, would secure the fourth position with seven percent of the prospective vote. If this were the actual vote totals, RCV would begin with Bye being eliminated and his second choice votes added to the aggregate.

Rep. Peltola has been successful in the Ranked Choice process in both of her elections. In this case, the RCV process would begin because no candidate reached the majority support level.

Census Estimates: Early Reapportionment Projections for 2030 — The Census Bureau released its 2023 population estimates and from that data, extrapolated congressional seat gain and loss estimates for the next census, which is seven years away. Obviously, much can change over that time period, but the projections suggest serious population movement. California appears headed to lose a whopping four seats, while Texas would gain four. The other prospective multi-seat gainer would be Florida at plus-3. Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah would each gain one seat.

In addition to California, the losing states would include New York (minus-3) and Illinois (minus-2) with Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania losing one seat apiece. Oregon is the biggest surprise in the loser column because they gained a seat in the 2020 reapportionment.

Since these numbers are all long-range projections, the gainers and losers are not equal, which will correct itself once the final apportionment is completed after the next census many years from now.