Tag Archives: Tennessee

Rep. Mark Green to Retire; Another GOP Primary Challenger in AZ-1; Rep. Menendez Leading in NJ-8; New Mexico Senate Candidate Fails to Qualify

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 16, 2024

House

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), US House Homeland Security Committee Chairman, announces his retirement. / Twitter

TN-7: Rep. Mark Green (R) to Retire — The second full House Homeland Security Committee chairman in less than a week announced Wednesday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) joins Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) as Homeland Security Committee chairs most recently announcing their respective retirement. Reps. Kay Granger (R-TX) and Patrick McHenry (R-NC), who consecutively chair the Appropriations and Financial Services Committees, are also ending their long congressional careers.

Rep. Green said he has accomplished his promised goals in the House with the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and the passage of the border bill earlier in this Congress. As chairman of Homeland Security, he was a key figure in both actions.

AZ-1: Another GOP Primary Challenger for Rep. Schweikert — Arizona US Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Fountain Hills) close 2022 re-election contest has attracted a number of Democrats and Republicans into the 2024 campaign. Yesterday, former FBI agent Kim George (R) announced her candidacy. Also battling the congressman for renomination are businessmen Robert Backie and P.T. Burton. The crowded field will likely help the congressman win the Aug. 6 plurality primary.

While businessman Jevin Hodge held Schweikert to a scant one-point general election victory he is not returning for a rematch, but no less than nine Democrats are running. Within this large group are former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherney, ex-state Rep. Amish Shah, and former news anchorwoman Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of former Attorney General Grant Woods (D).

The politically marginal 1st District is fully contained within Maricopa County and carries an R+7 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The seat is ranked as the 18th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. President Joe Biden carried this district by a bare 50.1 – 48.6 percent margin in the 2020 election.

NJ-8: Internal Poll Finds Rep. Menendez Leading — Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla’s Democratic primary challenge to freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), son of New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D), may have lost some steam. Upon announcement, and at the height of Sen. Menendez’s legal trouble, Bhalla posted big fundraising numbers and appeared to mount some momentum toward unseating the younger Menendez in the June 4 primary.

Rep. Menendez’s campaign released an internal poll to the New Jersey Globe newspaper, without identifying the pollster (Jan. 25-Feb. 1; 400 registered NJ-8 Democratic voters; live interview) but publicizing the favorable ballot test. According to this data, Rep. Menendez maintains a 46-24 percent advantage over Mayor Bhalla.

This race still merits attention, particularly as Sen. Menendez continues to languish in statewide Democratic primary polling and is virtually a sure bet to lose the June election, assuming that he files a statement of candidacy at the end of next month. The Menendez campaign was quick to release one data point: 77 percent of the respondents agree that Rep. Menendez should be ‘judged on his own record, and not on that of his father.’

Senate

New Mexico: Ex-Sheriff Fails to Qualify for Senate Ballot — As we have seen in several places already in this election year, another potential candidate has been disqualified for failing to manage the petition signature requirement for ballot placement. Former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales (R) has failed to qualify for the June 4 Republican US Senate ballot according to the New Mexico Secretary of State, thus likely leaving former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici as the party’s lone contender.

Assuming the decision holds, the New Mexico Senate general election will feature Domenici, the daughter of former six-term US Sen. Pete Domenici (R), and Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) who is seeking a third term. New Mexico is a Democratic state, so Sen. Heinrich is a clear favorite as the campaign officially starts, but Republicans believe that Domenici can become competitive.

Redistricting Update – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023

House

A look at how things might play out in key states in the redistricting tug of wars

Five States Affected: Democrats Have Upper Hand — Today we conclude our two-part series on the current status of Round II redistricting. We now examine the affected states from North Carolina through Wisconsin.

• North Carolina: In what looks to be a strong new redistricting run for the Democrats in most of the other states, the North Carolina situation will mitigate some of the national Republican losses. North Carolina redistricting had been a virtual omnipresent issue throughout the previous decade, since we saw a new congressional map created in almost every election cycle.

The problem was largely politics. The state legislature alone controls redistricting (the North Carolina governor has no veto power over redistricting legislation), and the majority consistently held a different view of how districts should be drawn than did the Democratic state Supreme Court.

In the 2022 election, Republicans gained two seats on the seven-member judicial panel, thus turning a 4-3 deficit into a 5-2 majority. Now, seeing the legislature and judiciary largely on the same page as it relates to redistricting, it is very likely that the map legislators will draw in the next week or so will obtain the needed judicial approval. If so, such will be the final congressional redistricting map until the 2030 census.

It also appears that the legislature will return to the basic model that the Democratic Supreme Court failed to approve. Therefore, we can expect the current 7R-7D delegation map to probably end with 10 districts favoring Republicans and four trending Democratic.

Thus, Reps. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro), Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), and Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) each could find themselves without a winnable district. Gaining three Republican seats in North Carolina would go a long way toward keeping the GOP in position to hold their slim US House majority.

• South Carolina: Soon after the first of this year, a federal three-judge panel declared the state’s Charleston anchored 1st Congressional District (Rep. Nancy Mace-R) to be an illegal racial gerrymander. This means the map drawers will likely add to the 1st African Americans from Rep. Jim Clyburn’s (D-Columbia) adjacent 6th District. This would make Rep. Mace more vulnerable to a Democratic candidate.

Nothing, however, has happened since the ruling, and it is unclear when the legislature will address the issue. Some movement is expected before the next election, but chances are strong that the legal challenges are not over.

Therefore, the Republicans may be able to delay long enough to push the final judicial decision, after the inevitable appeals are filed against whatever new map version is developed, until after the 2024 general election.

• Tennessee: A lawsuit claiming the new central Tennessee 5th Congressional District (Rep. Andy Ogles-R) is a partisan gerrymander is filed, but no judicial action has yet occurred. Even if the lower court rules in the plaintiffs’ favor, an appeal to the state Supreme Court will likely require more time than remains in the 2024 election cycle. Therefore, any change in the Tennessee map most likely will not happen until the 2026 election cycle.

• Texas: As in Tennessee, a lawsuit challenging the Texas map as a partisan gerrymander has been filed without seeing any judicial action. In this situation, regardless of how a lower court may rule, the Texas state Supreme Court would almost assuredly become involved. Therefore, it is probable that we will not see any substantive action changing the Texas congressional map in the 2024 election cycle.

• Wisconsin: The 6R-2D congressional map became a key point in the campaign to elect a new state Supreme Court Justice. Democrat Janet Protasiewicz won a seat on the high court, and her presence now gives her party a majority. She campaigned on what she sees as a Republican gerrymandered congressional map. The GOP filed a motion saying that she should be recused from hearing the 2023 redistricting because her stated campaign positions against the map demonstrates a preconceived bias. Predictably, the Supreme Court rejected the motion.

If the Democrats can get a map to the state Supreme Court, the result will almost assuredly be adverse for Republicans. The two most affected members will be those representing districts in the southern part of the state, Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse).

One Democrat who may not be in favor of drawing a new map, however, is Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Currently, she is not being seriously challenged for re-election, but if a new map forces either Steil or Van Orden out of their districts, at least one would likely jump into the Senate race.

Chances are fair to good that the Democrats can force a new map to be drawn. The state has a late primary – August 13, 2024 – so time remains for a new redistricting plan to be enacted. If so, then count on seeing either Rep. Steil or Van Orden, or both, being displaced. This will likely mean one of the two enters the Senate race to challenge Baldwin. Though the GOP would sustain a US House loss, redistricting could ironically put the Wisconsin US Senate seat into play.

Pennsylvania’s McCormick to Announce; Ex-San Jose Mayor Won’t Run; MI-13 Challengers; Anchorwoman to Run in PA-10; Progressive Mayor Elected

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023

Senate

Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R)

Pennsylvania: McCormick to Announce on Thursday — David McCormick, the former hedge fund CEO and Republican US Senate candidate who lost his 2022 party nomination bid to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes, is reportedly poised to make a run at three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) next year. He has scheduled an announcement event for Thursday, which should officially launch his 2024 campaign. Though it is unlikely that McCormick will face a strong challenge for the party nomination, Sen. Casey will begin the active campaign season as the clear favorite to win the race.

House

CA-16, 18: Ex-Mayor Won’t Run — Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who said earlier in the year he was deciding whether to challenge Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) or Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) in California’s March Democratic primary will not run against anybody. Instead, he has accepted a position with a legislative advocacy firm. Both Reps. Eshoo and Lofgren appear as prohibitive favorites to win another term in the House irrespective of who might be their Democratic primary and general election opponents.

MI-13: Two Will Return to Challenge Rep. Thanedar — Freshman Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), who won a crowded open Democratic primary in 2022 with just 28 percent of the vote, will face at least two of the same opponents in his renomination fight next year. Former state Sen. Adam Hollier and John Conyers III, whose father held this same seat for 52 years, appear to be sure bets to return for another electoral battle. Once again, however, a crowded field will help Thanedar, because his opposition vote will be split. The Democratic primary will determine who represents the district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-13 as D+46.

PA-10: Anchorwoman May Soon Declare — Veteran news anchorwoman Janelle Stelson (D) has resigned her position with WGAL-TV in Lancaster, PA, ostensibly to soon declare her candidacy opposite US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). While Stelson is well known in the Lancaster area, a media market that touches York County, the bulk of the 10th District population lies in the Harrisburg/Dauphin County region. Therefore, she does not command district-wide name identification.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 10th District as R+9, which suggests a competitive race but one that a Republican should typically win. Rep. Perry was originally elected in 2012. He begins this race as a clear favorite for re-election.

Cities

Nashville, Tenn.: New Mayor Elected — The open mayoral runoff election was held on Tennessee’s unique Thursday election day at the end of last week, and the progressive left candidate, Freddie O’Connell an elected member of the Davidson County Metro Council, claimed the victory.

He easily defeated GOP strategist Alice Rolli on a 63-36 percent count. O’Connell will succeed Mayor John Cooper, brother of former Congressman Jim Cooper (D), who did not seek re-election.

Can DeSantis Overtake Trump?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 18, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron
Desantis (R)

Polling: DeSantis vs. Trump — A series of flash polls taken in June and early July within 13 states provides us a glimpse into the path Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has ahead of him if he is to wrest the Republican presidential nomination away from former President Donald Trump. In summary, the deficit may be too large to overcome.

National polls have for weeks shown Trump holding huge leads over his GOP opponents, but these national surveys are virtually meaningless since the race will be determined in the state-by-state count. The winner must secure 1,234 pledged delegate votes from the 56 voting entities to clinch the party nomination.

The recent polling from the 13 states yields a combined 944 delegates, or 38.3 percent of the total Republican universe. The tallies come from 11 different pollsters during the period beginning June 5 and ending July 6.

Cumulatively, Trump would command a combined 47.4 percent support from these places, slightly less than he is showing nationally. Gov. DeSantis is so far recording 21.2 percent, and no other candidate even reaches five percent support. Therefore, the Florida governor must more than double his support base if he is to surpass Trump’s advantage.

Included in these 13 states are eight places where voters will cast their ballots on Super Tuesday, March 5, or before. The eight states are, in voting order: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, California, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Of the pre-Super Tuesday states, only Michigan is not included.

In the early states, Trump’s margin, according to the latest available polling data, is actually an even larger 55-22 percent over Gov. DeSantis, with 23 percent choosing one of the seven minor candidates. Therefore, the Trump lead in the critical momentum building early states is larger than in the at-large universe, thus making DeSantis’s task even more difficult.

In addition to the eight early states mentioned above, the remaining tested domains, again in voting order, are Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Montana. Of the 13, DeSantis’ strongest state is Wisconsin, where the Marquette University Law School survey, a frequent Badger State pollster, finds the Florida governor trailing Trump by just one percentage point.

The state will the largest chasm between the two men is Tennessee, where the Targoz Market Research survey finds a Trump margin of 61-12 percent. Perhaps most troubling to Gov. DeSantis is his most recent showing in his own home state of Florida. The latest Florida Atlantic University study that concluded on July 1 reveals a 50-30 percent margin in Trump’s favor.

This poll, however, may be an anomaly because no other data has shown such a large disparity. Since the beginning of May, one other research study finds Trump ahead by eight percentage points, while two more see a virtually even split between Trump and DeSantis. Still, for Trump to be doing this well in Gov. DeSantis’ home state is telling as to the strength of the former President’s national advantage.

While serious campaigning is just now getting underway, much can change between the present circumstances and the eventual outcome. With Iowa now moving their precinct caucuses from an original date of Feb. 5 to Jan. 15, the nomination campaign season grows even shorter.

For Gov. DeSantis, or any of the minor candidates to make a serious run at former President Trump, the activity pace will have to significantly quicken, and their momentum will need an abrupt about face.

NH Gov. Sununu Edges Closer to Presidential Candidacy; New Dem Emerges in MD Senate Race; Possible Challenger to Tenn. Sen. Blackburn; Radzius is In & Out in NY-3

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 23, 2023

President

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Gov. Chris Sununu: Moving Toward Running — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said at the end of last week that he will make a formal announcement about his potential presidential candidacy by the end of this month. Reading the political tea leaves suggests that he will enter the race but will forego a fifth run for governor later in the cycle presuming he fails to win the Republican presidential nomination. The Granite State has no term limits in place for the office of governor; also, governors serve two-year terms, not four as in most states.

Polls suggest that he will be a factor in the New Hampshire primary, which is still the first such state on the Republican calendar. A good showing in the Granite State could provide him some momentum for other places particularly in the New England region. Looking at the bigger picture, another entry again makes the GOP race easier for former President Donald Trump.

Senate

Maryland: New Democrat Comes Forth — Joining the Maryland open US Senate Democratic primary race is telecom company executive and Gulf War veteran Juan Dominguez. He announced his candidacy at the end of last week. It is doubtful he will be a top-tier contender, since he must battle US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, and Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando at a minimum. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) and former Rep. John Delaney (D) also are potential candidates.

The May 14, 2024, plurality Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D) in November.

Tennessee: Potential Democratic Challenger — Tennessee state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville), who was one vote away from being expelled from the House for her support of the gun control insurrection at the state Capitol earlier this year, said over the weekend that she is considering entering the US Senate race to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn.

Sen. Blackburn is poised for re-election and will be very difficult to unseat in a state that Donald Trump carried 61-37 percent in 2020. Sen. Blackburn defeated former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), 55-44 percent, to initially win her seat in 2018.

House

NY-3: In and Out — As fast as New York television reporter Darius Radzius (D) entered the congressional race with the hope of challenging embattled freshman Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) last week, he just as quickly closed his committee with the Federal Election Commission and withdrawn his candidacy “for personal reasons.”

Former state Sen. Anna Kaplan and Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan are the two most prominent Democrats to so far come forward. Former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who left the seat in 2022 to run a long-shot gubernatorial campaign, says he is considering launching a comeback congressional race. Republicans are likely to find a new candidate, possibly in the person of state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola), should Rep. Santos be convicted in court, expelled from the House, or defeated in a Republican primary.

2022 Midterm Turnout Trends

Click on the graph above or here to see story and full-size image on BALLOTPEDIA

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 18, 2023

Elections

A Look at the Midterm Numbers — Particularly in low turnout elections, the voter participation figure tends to be definitive as to which party commands the final result. Now that election statistics are final for the 2022 election, we can better analyze the voting patterns and compare them to past trends.

2018 proved to be the highest turnout midterm election in history. In that year, more than 114 million people cast their ballots. The 2022 midterm is now second highest even though voter turnout dropped seven percent from four years previous. In November, just under 106 million total votes were recorded. 

According to the Ballotpedia data organization in their state-by-state turnout recap, 50.33 percent of the eligible voting population participated in 2018 and a commensurate 46.76 percentage is recorded for 2022. By contrast, Ballotpedia finds that 66.8 percent of the eligible voting population participated in the 2020 presidential election. Based upon their calculations, 2020 saw the highest eligible voter turnout in the 21st century.

The Ballotpedia data tells us that the 2022 election’s top five turnout states were Oregon (61.51 percent of the state’s eligible voter figure), Maine (61.46 percent), Minnesota (61.01 percent), Wisconsin (60.1 percent), and Michigan (59.31 percent). 

Conversely, the lowest five turnout states were Tennessee (31.34 percent of the state’s eligible voter figure), Mississippi (32.89 percent), West Virginia (35.66 percent), Alabama (37.74 percent), and Oklahoma (40.11 percent). 

Three of the top turnout states saw a much higher ratio of registered voters casting their ballots when compared to the eligible figures. Maine’s registered voter turnout soared to 75.3 percent, Wisconsin recorded 75.1 percent, and Minnesota reached 69.4 percent. Michigan was one of just 11 states where 2022 turnout exceeded that of 2018.

Except for Tennessee and Alabama, the lowest turnout states also produced substantial increases in registered voter turnout when compared to their eligible voter number. Oklahoma rose to a 50.23 percent participation rate from the registered voter population; Mississippi 44.3 percent; and West Virginia 40.8 percent. Even among registered voters, the Tennessee and Alabama totals failed to reach the 40 percent plateau.

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Ogles Claims TN-5; Valadao Trails in New CA Poll; Salazar Holding Lead

By Jim Ellis — August 5, 2022

Primary Results

Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles

Tennessee: Ogles Claims 5th District; Dem Gov Undecided — The Volunteer State voters engaged in the country’s only Thursday primary, and the open 5th District (Rep. Jim Cooper-D retiring) was the evening’s key race. The crowded Republican primary winner was Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles. He defeated former state House Speaker Beth Harwell and retired National Guard Gen. Kurt Winstead along with six others.

Redistricting transformed this seat into a Republican domain, so Ogles becomes a heavy favorite to defeat state Sen. Heidi Campbell (D-Nashville) in the general election. The three incumbents who faced competition, Reps. Charles Fleishmann (R-Chattanooga), David Kustoff (R-Germantown), and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) were all easily renominated.

The Democratic governor’s nomination is still undecided. With 98 percent of the vote counted, physician Jason Martin leads Memphis City Councilman J.B. Smiley Jr. by only 1,468 votes. Gov. Bill Lee was unopposed in the Republican primary. He will be the prohibitive general election favorite over either Martin or Smiley.

House

CA-22: Rep. Valadao Trails in New Poll — California Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) represents the most Democratic district in the nation that elects a Republican to the US House, and redistricting made the seat tilt even further away from the congressman. The jungle primary saw him qualify for the general election, but with only 26 percent of the vote as he finished in second place.

A newly released David Binder Research poll (July 13-15; 600 likely CA-22 general election voters) finds state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) leading Rep. Valadao 43-35 percent as the general election campaign in California’s Central Valley is now fully underway. We can expect this race to close tight, but it is one of the best Democratic opportunities in the nation to convert a Republican seat.

FL-27: Rep. Salazar Holding Lead — Despite inheriting a slightly more favorable district for Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) post-redistricting, but one that still favors the Democrats, a new Alvarado Strategies Poll for the Floridians for Economic Advancement PAC (July 26-29; 440 likely FL-27 general election voters; online) stakes the congresswoman to a lead slightly beyond the polling margin of error. Though the ballot test shows a large undecided factor of 27 percent, Rep. Salazar posts a 39-34 percent margin over state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D-Miami).

NM-2: Dead Heat — Freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamorgordo) was dealt a difficult blow in redistricting, and a new Global Strategy Group poll conducted for Democratic nominee Gabe Vasquez, a Las Cruces City Councilman (July 19-25; 500 likely NM-2 general election voters; live interview), projects a dead heat already forming for the general election. According to the GSG survey, Vasquez would hold a slight 45-44 percent edge over Rep. Herrell. The 2nd District was drawn as a D+4 district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization transforming it from the R+14 seat that Herrell currently represents.

Governor

Minneosta: Gov. Walz (D) in Tight Race — A just-released Cygnal group survey of the Minnesota electorate (July 18-19; 500 likely Minnesota general election voters; live interview & text) sees Gov. Tim Walz (D) leading presumed Republican nominee Scott Jensen, a physician and former state senator, but only by a few percentage points. According to the Cygnal poll, Dr. Jensen trails the governor by a tight 50-46 percent margin. The Minnesota primary is Tuesday, but Dr. Jensen faces only minor Republican opposition by virtue of his state party convention victory earlier in the year.

The Cygnal poll found Gov. Walz with a 49:45 percent favorability rating and Dr. Jensen scored a 32:24 percent positive index. President Biden’s rating is an upside down 42:56 percent positive to negative ratio. Within the polling universe, 43 percent believe Minnesota is on the right track, while 48 percent feel the state has veered in the wrong direction.