Oct. 11, 2019 — Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling just released their latest North Carolina survey (Oct. 4-6; 963 likely North Carolina voters, 410 likely North Carolina Democratic primary voters) Wednesday, which projects a two-person race developing in the Tar Heel State as former Vice President Joe Biden leads Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 39-22 percent. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg receives nine percent support, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) earns only a disappointing six percent. All other candidates fail to break the three percent level.
North Carolina is one of the Super Tuesday states, a state whose electorates will cast ballots on March 3, the largest voting day of the nominating season. On March 3, a total of 14 states and one territory will host primaries or caucuses, seven of which come from the south. It is here where former Biden would have to make his stand, since his southern numbers are the best of any candidate by a wide margin.
The question being posed is whether a sluggish Biden start in the first three voting states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, where he could conceivably fail to place first in any, would derail his momentum to the point of lessening his southern advantage.
Making rudimentary delegate calculations from the 19 entities that would vote on or before Super Tuesday, we find that current polling would place the former vice president in the lead on the evening of March 3, but that his delegate edge would certainly not be dominating.
To re-cap, based upon the latest polling from Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, the delegate estimate prior to South Carolina would find the former VP and Sen. Warren tied with 37 delegates apiece, while Sen. Sanders would have 27, meaning a virtual three-way tie despite Biden not winning any of the states outright. If he can stay in the hunt — with neither of his key opponents establishing themselves as a clear leader — the tide turns Biden’s way.