Tag Archives: Senate

Senate Candidate Gibbons Confirmed to be in Top Tier of Ohio Race

By Jim Ellis

Ohio US Senate candidate Mike Gibbons forges into a small lead.

Feb. 15, 2022 — At the end of January, a Cygnal research poll found investment banker and 2018 Ohio US Senate candidate Mike Gibbons forging into a small lead over perennial GOP primary leader Josh Mandel, the state’s former treasurer and 2012 US Senate nominee. Two new polls now confirm Gibbons’ outright lead in the battle to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman.

The previously released internal Gibbons’ campaign Cygnal January poll (Jan. 28-30; 929 likely Ohio Republican primary voters, SMS text & email) gave their candidate a 16-13 percent lead over Mandel, with author J.D. Vance showing in double-digits at 10 percent.

The new pair of statewide Buckeye State Republican US Senate primary surveys find the businessman again overtaking Mandel to claim first place. A co/efficent independent survey (Feb. 6-8; 613 likely Ohio Republican primary voters, text & automated interview responses) posts Gibbons to a 20-18 percent lead over Mandel, with state senator and Cleveland Guardians MLB club minority owner Mike Dolan, former state Republican Party chair Jane Timken, and Vance trailing with 7, 6 and 5 percent support, respectively.

The new Cyngal research firm’s internal poll for the Gibbons campaign (Feb. 8-10; 609 likely Ohio Republican primary voters, SMS text & email), however, gives their candidate a much larger margin over the rest of the field.

One possible reason for the increase in support is that another business candidate, car dealer Bernie Moreno, who had reached as high as 11 percent in a January poll, withdrew from the race in early February, reportedly at the behest of former President Donald Trump. It is conceivable that much of the Moreno support base went to Gibbons, since the two candidates were similar in several ways.

The most recent Cygnal numbers find Gibbons holding a surprisingly large 23 percent support figure, with Mandel, Vance, Timken, and Dolan trailing with 11, 9, 8 and 6 percent, respectively. The Gibbons’ media blitz, to an extent featuring Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) endorsing the investment banker’s candidacy, has clearly achieved its goal of propelling Gibbons into serious contention for the party nomination that will be decided in the open May 3 primary election.

Though the study’s analysis report doesn’t provide segmented numbers, the Cygnal pollsters claim the Gibbons lead is widespread within the key Republican voter groups. They report Gibbons leads by double digits among “self-identified Trump Republicans as well as Traditional Republicans.”

Gibbons also maintains similar leads with “self-identified Extremely Conservative, Very Conservative, and Somewhat Conservative voters, and over the nearest competitor among both men and women.” He also “holds strong advantages among Evangelical Protestants, Mainline Protestants, and Catholic voters.”

Gibbons’ effort is almost exclusively self-financed, to the tune of $11.4 million, all as a loan to the campaign. He has spent $5.8 million and had a cash-on-hand reserve of $6.4 million at the end of 2021. Therefore, even if his fundraising operation does not raise major money, Gibbons has enough to compete for the nomination.

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Top Senate Fundraisers

Retired astronaut Mark Kelly, a Democrat, announced his candidacy for the party nomination for the Arizona Senate. He tops the 4th Quarter fundraisers list.

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 10, 2020
— Continuing to look at the just released 4th Quarter fundraising figures, below is a chart of the top Senate candidates (30) who raised more than $1 million in the previous quarter.

Of the top 30 Senate fundraisers, 17 are Democrats and 13 are Republicans. The incumbent to non-incumbent ratio is the same as the partisan division, 17 incumbents versus 13 non-incumbents pertaining to the $1 million-plus 4th Quarter 2019 fundraisers. The top two 4th Quarter fundraisers — Arizona retired astronaut Mark Kelly and retired Marine Corps pilot Amy McGrath — are both Democratic challengers.

Among the top 10 Senate fundraisers, both parties place five candidates in the category. In 10 states, opponents both exceeded the $1 million receipt mark for the quarter just ended.

SENATE RECEIPTS (In Millions)

CANDIDATE PARTY STATE INCOME COH
KELLY, MARK D AZ $6.219 $13.609
McGRATH, AMY D KY $6.152 $9.133
McCONNELL, MITCH R KY $4.587 $11.579
McSALLY, MARTHA R AZ $3.990 $7.660
GRAHAM, LINDSEY R SC $3.837 $10.337
HARRISION, JAIME D SC $3.553 $4.700
JAMES, JOHN R MI $3.532 $6.085
GIDEON, SARA D ME $3.439 $2.778
HICKENLOOPER, JOHN D CO $2.756 $3.216
CORNYN, JOHN R TX $2.697 $12.117
PETERS, GARY D MI $2.487 $8.037
KENNEDY, JOSEPH D MA $2.405 $5.544
COLLINS, SUSAN R ME $2.228 $7.195
SHAHEEN, JEANNE D NH $2.040 $5.758
GARDNER, CORY R CO $1.969 $7.752
JONES, DOUG D AL $1.898 $5.477
TILLIS, THOM R NC $1.885 $5.307
PERDUE, DAVID R GA $1.838 $7.830
ERNST, JONI R IA $1.676 $4.856
SMITH, TINA D MN $1.670 $3.623
GREENFIELD, T. D IA $1.605 $2.158
CUNNINGHAM, CAL D NC $1.602 $1.701
HAGERTY, BILL R TN $1.504 $3.010
WARNER, MARK D VA $1.490 $7.460
MARKEY, ED D MA $1.387 $4.550
DAINES, STEVE R MT $1.386 $5.037
HEGAR, MJ D TX $1.142 $1.004
SULLIVAN, DAN R AK $1.129 $5.716
BOLLIER, BARBARA D KS $1.067 $0.810
LUJAN, BEN RAY D NM $1.016 $2.001

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