Tag Archives: Sen. Michael Bennet

Inslee Bows Out of Presidential Race

By Jim Ellis

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D)

Aug. 23, 2019 — The Democratic National Committee leaders’ strategy to substantially increase the presidential debate qualification requirements in order to decrease the unwieldy and bloated candidate field is working.

The prerequisites to prove that a campaign has more than 130,000 donors and that each candidate reaches a minimum of two percent support from four of eight designated pollsters paid another dividend Wednesday as Washington Gov. Jay Inslee became the third Democratic candidate to officially exit the race.

Not making the debate stage signifies that a candidate has no chance to become a top-tier candidate. Without national exposure, also-ran candidates have little opportunity to increase name identification and familiarity in order to raise enough money to deliver a message, motivate people to work on their campaign, and attract serious media attention both nationally and in the important local markets within key states.

Inslee follows Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper in making the decision to bow out of the race, and there are likely to be several more following suit once it becomes even more evident that the lower-tier candidates will no longer have the opportunity to climb onto the national debate stage.

Gov. Inslee, in an interview on MSNBC’s “The Rachel Maddow Show” Wednesday, stated ” … it’s become clear that I’m not going to be carrying the ball. I’m not going to be the president, so I’m withdrawing tonight from the race.” He is expected to announce that he will seek a third term as Washington’s governor.

The Inslee withdrawal is not a surprise to anyone, apparently even to the candidate himself. He remained non-committal about ruling out running for a third gubernatorial term, which froze most of the Washington Democratic potential aspirants in place. The rhetoric blocked them from overtly assembling a statewide campaign since most correctly interpreted the political tea leaves as meaning that Inslee would, in fact, be back to seek re-election.

With 10 candidates now qualified for the next debate since former HUD Secretary Julian Castro just joined the top-tier candidates of Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg who are also joined by Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), and businessman Andrew Yang, it remains to be seen just how many of those who won’t meet the qualifications will continue.

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Hickenlooper: Heading Out and In?

Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper – running for Senate after all? (Photo Moritz Hager)

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 6, 2019 — Some politicos are saying that former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is poised to end his failed presidential campaign and return home to challenge Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). The speculation is largely coming because new Hickenlooper for Senate campaign domain names were just registered in the past few days. That, and in an interview Sunday on satellite radio, Hickenlooper said he would “be a fool” to continue running for president if he couldn’t see improvement in the polls.

Democratic leaders had long attempted to recruit Hickenlooper into the Senate race, but he steadfastly refused to be swayed from becoming a presidential candidate. He went further than rejecting the idea of running statewide in 2020 when he even expressed some disdain for the Senate as a political body. Hickenlooper seemingly ruled out serving in the Senate saying in February that, “I’m not cut out to be a senator,” and that, “Senators don’t build teams. Senators sit and debate in small groups…”

In his absence, no less than 14 Colorado Democrats have come forward to seek the party nomination to oppose Sen. Gardner, who began the 2020 cycle as arguably the most vulnerable Republican incumbent because his state is moving decidedly leftward. Ten months later, however, Sen. Gardner’s re-election chances appear stronger.

Of the 14 active candidates, six have electoral experience and seven have served in either elective, appointed, or political party positions. Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold leads the group, and former state House Speaker and statewide candidate Andrew Romanoff, ex-state House Majority Leader Alice Madden, former state senator and gubernatorial candidate Mike Johnston, state Sen. Angela Williams (D-Denver), ex-US Ambassador Dan Baer, and former Boulder County Democratic chair Ellen Burnes follow.

It is unclear just how many from this group, if any, would step aside for Hickenlooper, who is certainly a weakened political figure considering his national performance and given that he previously has said he doesn’t want the federal office. Therefore, it is conceivable that he will have to face what could be a difficult Democratic primary, and then Sen. Gardner, who is widely regarded as the best campaigner in the Republican candidate stable. According to the latest Federal Election Commission disclosure report, Sen. Gardner’s campaign account possessed just under $5 million at the June 30 deadline.

Though money will be no object for either Sen. Gardner or the eventual Democratic nominee, Colorado voting history is a major factor. The state has been trending much more Democratic since the turn of the century, and President Trump only recorded 43 percent of the vote in his loss here to Hillary Clinton. Prior to that, the last Republican to carry Colorado was George W. Bush in 2004.

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Poll: Biden Falling

By Jim Ellis

July 2, 2019 — The Morning Consult organization immediately went into the field after the second night of the Democratic presidential forum (June 27-28; 2,407 US self-identified Democratic registered voters) and found that former Vice President Joe Biden’s support slipped, at least as an immediate reaction to what is commonly viewed as his poor debate performance, while Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), evaluated as performing quite well, gained.

The MC data still finds Biden in first place, but down five points from their previous survey. On June 23, just three days before the first forum, Biden led Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 38-19 percent while Sen. Harris lagged at six percent support. Just after the debate, when completing the poll on June 28, Biden dropped to 33 percent, but Sanders remained constant at the 19 percent level. Conversely, Sen. Harris doubled her past support to 12 percent.

MORNING CONSULT POLL RESULTS:

Click on above graphic to go to complete Media Consult poll results story.

In the Morning Consult survey, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) also posted 12 percent support, which was virtually on par with her standing in their June 23 poll when she recorded 13 percent preference. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who actually scored well on the second debate night, had a similar result to Sen. Warren. While he was polling seven percent on the June 23 poll, he basically remained constant one week later, dropping to six percent on the MC June 28 survey.

Former Texas representative, Beto O’Rourke, who was dogged with poor debate reviews from his first night performance, also dropped in the Morning Consult polling. Before the forum, O’Rourke was only in the four percent range, and after, even lost half that support base, dropping to two percent.

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The Scorecard – Part II

By Jim Ellis

May 21, 2019 — Today we continue with our overview of the 24 Democratic presidential candidates. Yesterday we outlined the first 12, and today we’ll finish up with the remaining candidates (listed alphabetically):

• Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO): Eschewing a Senate race against first-term Republican incumbent Cory Gardner, Hickenlooper, after leaving the Colorado governor’s office in January, became a presidential candidate in early March. But, his early results have been uninspiring.
Lagging in the polls but getting just enough to qualify for a debate podium, Hickenlooper is attempting to establish himself as a reasonable left-of-center candidate, but the constituent segment responding to such a message may simply be too small to make him viable. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet’s presence in the race even cuts into Hickenlooper’s geographic support base. It is likely that the former two-term Colorado governor and Denver mayor will continue to languish in the second tier for the duration of his candidacy.

• Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA): One of the also-ran candidates, Gov. Inslee, one of only two state chief executives in the field, is not a factor for the nomination. In fact, he has previously indicated that he would not rule out running for a third term as Washington’s governor next year if he fares poorly in the early presidential voting. It appears barely registering on key polls will be enough to place him in the presidential forums, but it is unlikely that he will receive enough of a boost from those events to make him a viable candidate.

• Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): From her announcement event where she spoke at an outside podium in a Minnesota snow storm, Sen. Klobuchar has yet to catch fire in any meaningful way. As the only candidate from the Midwest, Klobuchar has the opportunity of cobbling together a geographic coalition. The Iowa Caucus will be an important event for her to establish a legitimacy foothold. The Hawkeye State presidential electorate usually looks favorably on neighboring candidates, so it will be important for her to use this first-in-the-nation caucus as a way to become a top-tier candidate.

• Mayor Wayne Messam (D-Miramar, Fla.): Though Miramar is larger than Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s South Bend, Indiana, this local mayor has yet to catch fire. Many media publications do not even count him as part of the candidates’ list. Mayor Messam is unlikely to qualify for the candidate forums and faces major obstacles in developing national credibility for this presidential race.
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The Scorecard – Part I

By Jim Ellis

Former vice president and ex-Delaware senator Joe Biden is the Democratic front-runner in the 2020 presidential campaign.

May 20, 2019 — It is often said, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard,” and that is certainly becoming the case with the presidential campaign. A 24th candidate entered the national political fray just late last week — New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio.

Greeted with the reminder that the last Quinnipiac University poll of New York City residents found that 76 percent of those polled didn’t want the mayor to run for president, de Blasio launched his late-starting campaign with a video of him talking about “putting working people first,” interspersed with video footage of being chauffeured around the city in a limousine. Saddled with poor approval ratings within his home base and a late start, de Blasio is the longest of shots to become a viable candidate.

It is likely that the de Blasio declaration is the last significant announcement, meaning all of the major players are finally in the race. Seeing two dozen candidates – and while many media networks report different numbers, the total clearly exceeds 20 – it is a good time to review the field (alphabetically) and summarize how the plethora of candidates is doing. We’ll go through the first 12, and tomorrow finish up the field:

• Former Vice President Joe Biden: The clear early race leader. Biden received the announcement bump that he desired and is proving to be the man to beat. Still, much will happen before he can legitimately clinch the party nomination. In the first 24 hours after his announcement, the former VP raised $6.3 million.

• Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO): A prostate cancer diagnosis and surgery delayed Sen. Bennet’s entry into the race, so his campaign is just getting underway. He is a second-tier candidate who is unlikely to seriously challenge for the nomination.

• Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ): Has not gotten much early attention, but reports suggest his campaign is among the best organized in terms of ground operation. Sen. Booker could surprise in the national candidate forums and, despite current low polling performance, might become a factor as the campaign develops.

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