Tag Archives: Sen. Mark Kelly

Blake Masters to Run Again in Arizona Senate Race; New Candidate in NC-13 Race; Pfaff Passes in WI-3;
A Polling Tie in Mississippi Gov. Race

By Jim Ellis — Sept. 1, 2023

Senate

Blake Masters / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: 2022 GOP Nominee Preparing ’24 Senate Run — Reports are surfacing from Arizona that 2022 Republican US Senate nominee Blake Masters, a venture capitalist who fell to Sen. Mark Kelly (D) by a 51-47 percent margin, will soon enter the current three-way Senate race. Independent incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is expected to seek re-election possibly as the No Labels Party candidate, while Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is already becoming a likely consensus Democratic contender.

The Grand Canyon State contest will prove unpredictable because all three contenders, Sen. Sinema, Rep. Gallego, and the eventual Republican nominee, will have a pathway to victory.

Should Masters choose to enter the campaign, he will likely have Republican primary opposition. Kari Lake, the former news anchorwoman who received 49.6 percent of the gubernatorial vote in a losing effort against current incumbent Sen. Katie Hobbs (D), is also expected to become a Senate candidate. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is already in the race and has been campaigning for the party nomination over a period of months.

The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024, meaning this race will have a long development period.

House

NC-13: Republican State Rep Announces for Congress — State Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), the only Republican to represent part of Wake County in the legislature, announced yesterday that she will seek the GOP congressional nomination with the goal of challenging 13th District freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary). This will be an interesting race since the NC-13 seat is sure to change, and likely in a dramatic way. The legislature is scheduled soon to redraw the congressional map, and it is expected that the 13th will become much more Republican.

In 2022, Nickel defeated Republican Bo Hines, 52-48 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App saw a different picture, however. This group calculates the partisan lean at 49.5D – 48.1R. President Joe Biden carried the district with a slight 50.1 – 48.4 percent victory margin even though he lost the statewide count.

After the redraw we can expect this seat to lean decidedly Republican, thus making Rep. Nickel a highly vulnerable Republican target.

WI-3: 2022 Dem Nominee Bypasses Rematch Opportunity — State Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse), who did surprising well in the 2022 WI-3 congressional race in losing to freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) 52-48 percent even though Democratic party leaders virtually conceded the open race, has made a decision about seeking a re-match. Since Sen. Pfaff’s four-year term in the legislature expires at the end of next year, he announced that he will seek re-election instead of embarking upon another congressional race.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the WI-3 district as R+9, and the Democratic presidential nominee lost here in both 2020 and 2016 by five percentage points, thus leading the national party leadership to spend outside resources in places they believed to be more competitive.

In the upcoming 2024 campaign, however, Democrats are likely to make a stronger run since Pfaff exceeded expectations in 2022, but now it will have to be with a new candidate.

Governor

Mississippi: Dem Poll Shows Tie — An Impact Research poll taken for Democrat Brandon Presley (D) in early August but just released Wednesday (Aug. 6-9; 600 likely Mississippi 2023 general election voters) produced interesting results in the Mississippi governor’s race. The ballot test finds Presley tied with Gov. Tate Reeves (R) at 46 percent, apiece. The pollsters note that Presley’s support has risen in all three of their previously conducted surveys, while Gov. Reeves has consistently dropped.

Similar polling trends were published in the 2019 governor’s race, and many believed that Reeves, then the state’s lieutenant governor, would lose to Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood. In the end, Reeves scored a 52-47 percent win, a much stronger performance for the Republican than most believed would occur. Expect the Reeves campaign to soon counter with their own polling data. This year’s general election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

Pence to Announce Presidential Campaign Today; Sununu Stays Out of Presidential Race; Manchin Running on No Labels Unlikely; Arizona Sen. Kelly Endorses Teran

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 7, 2023

President

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R)

Mike Pence: Files Presidential Campaign Committee — Mike Pence (R), former vice president, Indiana governor, and US congressman, filed his long-awaited presidential campaign committee Monday with the Federal Election Commission and officially announced his campaign today, in Iowa, on his 64th birthday. Though it is difficult to see a path to victory for him with former President Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis dominating most of the early action, Pence will likely be part of the debates and has performed very well on stage when previously tested.

Also expected to announce their own campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination this week are former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Gov. Chris Sununu: Won’t Run for President — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), saying he understands that a crowded Republican presidential field will renominate former President Donald Trump with 35 percent of the vote, announced Monday in an op-ed column that he will not enter the GOP presidential nomination contest.

Sununu said he believes he can best influence the Republican presidential campaign from the outside in his current position as governor of one of the key early primary states. He made it clear his mission is to deny former President Trump renomination and called on other candidates with no clear path to the nomination to also leave the race.

The governor did not indicate whether he would consider a third-party run for president, or if he will seek a fifth term as governor next year.

No Labels Party: Sen. Joe Manchin Again Sending Signals — In an interview with Shannon Bream on Fox News Sunday, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) was once again sending signals that he might be open to a third-party run for president on the No Labels Party ticket. Such an option probably isn’t viable, however.

During the interview, Sen. Manchin said, “If Plan A shows that we’re going to the far reaches of both sides, the far left and the far right, and the people don’t want to go to the far left and the far right, they want to be governed from the middle.” He further stated in response to Bream asking if he would run as a third-party candidate, that he is “not ruling anything in, not ruling anything out.”

Regardless of what Sen. Manchin may want to do, it is unlikely he will become the No Labels Party presidential nominee. The NLP won’t meet until April 14-15 to choose a candidate, and candidate filing in West Virginia ends in late January. Therefore, Sen. Manchin will need to make a decision about his future prior to New Labels choosing any potential presidential candidate.

House

AZ-3: Sen. Kelly Chooses Candidate — Over the weekend Sen. Mark Kelly (D) indicated that his preferred candidate to replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), who is running against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), is former state Senate Minority Leader and ex-Arizona Democratic Party chair Raquel Teran. Four other Democrats are in the race, including Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor, daughter of former US Rep. Ed Pastor (D), but his relationship with Teran while she guided the Arizona party during his 2022 run for Senate makes her his candidate of choice.

The Phoenix anchored 3rd District is heavily Democratic with a D+44 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. Therefore, Rep. Gallego’s successor will be decided in the Aug. 6, 2024, Democratic primary, thus making Sen. Kelly’s endorsement valuable.

High Possibility Sen. Sinema to Join “No Labels” Party in Ariz.; Hutchinson Announces; Justice With Big Lead in WVa; New Candidates in AZ-1, FL-11

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 6, 2023

President

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)

No Labels Party: AZ Democrats Sue to Disqualify — The No Labels Party is attempting to qualify for the ballot in as many states as possible, and has already done so in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. The Arizona Democratic Party, however, has filed a lawsuit attempting to disqualify the No Labels entity under the reasoning that Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes was in error for certifying the organization because it doesn’t meet all of the legal qualifications. The ADP claims that No Labels has not filed with the Federal Election Commission nor have they disclosed their donors, both requirements for political parties under Arizona election law.

The Arizona Democrats are particularly concerned about No Labels because a candidate under this banner could potentially draw Democratic votes away from President Biden while further attracting a large percentage of Democratic support for Independent and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat, now an Independent. Arizona is again expected to deliver very close statewide election results in 2024, as its electorate has done in the last two elections.

There is a strong possibility that Sen. Sinema could run as the No Labels Senate candidate. Doing so would allow her to qualify for the ballot with far fewer petition signatures than required to secure an Independent ballot line. Under Arizona procedure, an Independent candidate would be required to submit 45,000 valid registered voter petition signatures. A new party’s candidate would see such a signature requirement drop to less than 1,300.

Asa Hutchinson: Announces Candidacy — Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R), who has repeatedly come out in opposition to former President Donald Trump, announced that he will become a presidential candidate. Though Hutchinson would be considered a “Never Trumper,” his jumping into the race could well help the former president because even small numbers of votes deflect from whoever becomes Trump’s top opponent, likely Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, will allow the former to score a plurality victory.

Senate

West Virginia: New GOP Primary Poll Finds Gov. Justice with Big Lead — The National Public Affairs survey research firm released the results of their new West Virginia US Senate Republican primary poll. The study (March 14-17; 360 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters and Independents likely to vote in the Republican primary; live interview & text), unsurprisingly finds Gov. Jim Justice leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) with a 43-21-10 percent count. If the race were only between Gov. Justice and Rep. Mooney, the governor would hold a 55-24 percent advantage.

It is likely that Morrisey will likely opt for the open governor’s race instead of taking on Justice in another Senate primary. In 2018, Morrisey held Sen. Joe Manchin (D) to a 50-46 percent re-election victory after easily winning the Republican primary. A Senate announcement from Gov. Justice is expected soon.

House

AZ-1: Democrats Rebound with New Candidate — Late last week, 2022 congressional nominee Jevin Hodge (D), who held Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) to a tight 50.4 – 49.6 percent victory margin, announced that he would not return for a re-match. State Rep. Amish Shah (D-) said Monday that he will run.

The newly-configured 1st District electorate is voting much more Democratic than the FiveThirtyEight R+7 rating would suggest. Though Rep. Schweikert barely won, President Joe Biden, Sen. Mark Kelly (D), and Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) all carried the 1st district in their 2020 and 2022 elections, albeit by similarly slim margins. Expect AZ-1 to be a top-tier Democratic conversion seat in the next election.

FL-11: Rep. Webster to Face Primary Challenge — Former Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R), who finished a distant second to now-Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) in the open 7th District Republican primary last year, announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) next year in the neighboring 11th District. Sabatini will be a long-shot contender, but he will likely be able to attract sufficient resources to become competitive.

Kelly & Kelly for Senate; Challenger to NJ Rep. Pascrell, 87, May Emerge; Chicago Mayoral Battle Continues; Two in Florida Runoff Battle

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Senate

Scott (left) and twin brother, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly

Texas: Democrats Searching for Candidate — Just like the Wisconsin Republicans in their quest to find a standard bearer to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year, the Lone Star State Democrats are continuing their search for a strong challenger to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Still not successfully recruiting either Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) or former HUD Secretary and ex-San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, the Democrats are now floating the idea of astronaut Scott Kelly, the twin brother of Arizona senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly (D).

Though Scott Kelly, who for a time was the world record holder for being in space for the longest duration (340 days), has not made any confirming statement that he is taking the same political path as his brother, if the Democratic leadership were to convince him to run, that would make an interesting race.

House

NJ-9: Potential Challenge for Rep. Pascrell — In mid March, we reported that 14-term New Jersey Congressman Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) announced that he would seek re-election next year at age 87. He may not have a free ride, however. Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is reportedly weighing his chances of challenging Rep. Pascrell in the 2024 Democratic primary.

Prior to being elected to Congress for the first time in 1996, Pascrell was simultaneously the mayor of Paterson and a state assemblyman. In 2012, when New Jersey lost a seat in national reapportionment, Rep. Pascrell and then Rep. Steve Rothman (D) were paired in the new 9th District. Initially, Rep. Pascrell was considered the underdog in the incumbent vs. incumbent Democratic primary, but the elder congressman would prevail in the end with a landslide 62-38 percent victory. Rep. Pascrell has not been seriously challenged since.

Mayor

Chicago: Vallas and Johnson Continue to Battle — The Chicago municipal contest, where voters have already defeated Mayor Lori Lightfoot, continues to brandish polling showing a very tight runoff contest between former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. Several published polls disagree as to who is leading whom in the race. The latest Victory Research survey (March 20-23; 806 Chicago likely runoff voters) sees Vallas leading 46-44 percent. IZQ Strategies (March 15-16; 680 likely Chicago runoff voters) arrives at the same 46-44 percent ballot test result, but they find Commissioner Johnson holding the slight edge.

Vallas has recently been able to cross racial lines by attracting endorsements from African American former officeholders Jesse White, who served six terms as the Illinois Secretary of State, and ex-Congressman Bobby Rush, who was in office for 30 years. Crime is a big issue in the contest and could be the defining one. The runoff is scheduled for April 4.

Jacksonville: Two Advance — The Jacksonville mayoral primary was held during the week, and Democrat Donna Deegan topped the field of candidates with 39 percent of the vote. Daniel Davis (R), the local Chamber of Commerce CEO, was second with 25 percent. Since neither candidate received majority support, the two will advance to a May 16 runoff election. Combined, Republican candidates received 51 percent of the vote as compared to the combined Democratic percentage of 48. Republican incumbent Lenny Curry is ineligible to seek a third term.

Nevada & Georgia Will Decide Senate Majority; House Majority Still in Limbo & Colorado Holds the Key

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022

Senate

Can former Nevada Attorney General and 2022 Senate candidate, Adam Laxalt (R) pull out a win in the Silver State?

Senate: Nevada & Georgia to Decide Majority — With Sen. Ron Johnson (R) being projected the winner of the Wisconsin Senate race, it means that deciding the Senate majority will likely come down to either the Democrats coming from behind to prevail in Nevada or having to wait to see who wins the Dec. 6 runoff in the Georgia Senate race.

With Sen. Mark Kelly (D) poised to win his yet-to-be-called race in Arizona, whether or not the trends change in Nevada will be the next happening to observe. Currently, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) leads Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by just under two percentage points, or 15,812 votes with approximately 84 percent of the vote recorded.

CNN has projected that the Georgia race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker will advance to a secondary runoff election because neither man will reach the 50 percent plateau. Currently, with 99 percent of the votes tabulated, Sen. Warnock’s edge over Walker is 49.2 to 48.7 percent, a margin of 17,500 votes.

House

House: Majority Count in Limbo — Several congressional race projection calls were issued yesterday, and Republicans now have 209 declared seats as compared to the Democrats’ 191. Of the 35 uncalled, 17 are clearly headed to one party or the other. The 18 uncalled campaigns that are purely undecided will put the final touches on the House majority. At this point, the Republicans reasonably look to have clinched 212 seats and the Democrats’ 204 before the final 19 seats are finally declared.

Colorado: Key to Majority — With the House majority definitely on the line, and the winning party ending close to the 218 minimum control mark, two races in the Centennial State of Colorado could be key to determining the final outcome.

In the state’s western slope 3rd District, controversial Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), who has been trailing her Democratic opponent, former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, since the beginning of the count has now pulled to within just 64 votes with still many votes outstanding. According to the CNN count, five percent of the vote remains.

Colorado received a new district in national reapportionment and the new 8th District is acting just as it was intended, as a toss-up seat. The latest count finds Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Eastlake) leading state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County) by 899 votes. This race, too, has tightened and CNN reports that only 78 percent of the vote is counted.

New York: Red Wave on Long Island — Though we did not see a “red wave” materialize nationally, we surprisingly saw one on Long Island. In fact, the Island’s two Democratic open seats flipped, the third remained in the Republican column, and Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Sayville) was re-elected to a second term.

With Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) not seeking re-election in order to campaign for governor, Republican Nick LaLota was declared the winner of his open 1st District, the east Long Island open seat. In the 3rd District, also open because the incumbent, Congressman Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), unsuccessfully ran for governor and lost the Democratic primary to incumbent Kathy Hochul, Republican George Santos was declared the winner.

Finally, in what proved to be the Island’s biggest upset, former Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D’Esposito will succeed retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City), who chose not to seek a fifth term. D’Esposito was declared the victor over former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Guillen (D), who was considered a big favorite in the D+10-rated district.

Kelly & Masters in Dead Heat in Ariz, Lake Leads; Walker Leads in Most Georgia Polls, Gov. Kemp Pulls Away

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 7, 2022

Senate

Venture capitalist Blake Masters (R) | Sen. Mark Kelly (D)

Arizona: Sen. Kelly (D) and Republican Masters in Dead Heat — Already, in the closing days of the 2022 election cycle, the Arizona Senate race has been one of the most heavily polled contests. According to the four latest surveys, the closeness of this contest could send the counting process into political overtime.

The four pollsters, Insider Advantage, Remington Research Group, Highmark, and Civiqs, all surveying within the Oct. 29-Nov. 2 period and questioning from 500 to 1,071 likely general election voters through various sampling techniques each independently found almost identical results. That is, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) and venture capitalist Blake Masters (R) are either tied or separated only by just one percentage point. This is a clear indication the race is a pure toss-up heading into Tuesday night.

Georgia: Herschel Walker Now Leading in Most Polls — At the end of this week, we see four pollsters releasing surveys, and three of the four show a break toward Walker. The Remington Research Group (Nov. 1-2; 1,150 likely Georgia general election voters) posts Walker to a 49-45 percent edge over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D). Echelon Insights (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 500 likely Georgia voters; live interview & text) arrives at exactly the same ballot test result as RRG. The Moore Information Group, polling for the Walker campaign, also came to virtually the same conclusion, 49-44 percent.

But, Survey USA (Oct. 29-Nov. 2; 1,171 GA likely voters; online) and Marist College (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 1,009 likely Georgia voters; multiple sampling techniques) saw the race differently. S-USA found Sen. Warnock holding a 49-43 percent advantage while Marist found a 48-48 percent tie.

House

MI-7: State Sen. Tom Barrett (R) at Parity with Rep. Slotkin (D) — Mitchell Research, polling as they often do for the MIRS news service (Nov. 2; 402 likely MI-7 general election voters; interactive voice response system) sees the contest between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) and state Sen. Tom Barrett (R-Lansing) falling into a statistical 48-48 percent tie, with the state legislator leading on the actual count by less than a percentage point. Should Barrett win, it would virtually guarantee that the Democrats will take the loss over Michigan dropping a congressional seat in national reapportionment.

Governor

Arizona: Kelly-Masters Dead Heat Yields Kari Lake (R) Gubernatorial Edge — The aforementioned quartet of pollsters (see Arizona Senate above), Insider Advantage, Remington Research Group, Highmark, and Civiqs, also see Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake leading Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. Lake’s margin ranges from one to three points. Though her leads are small, they are consistent through 17 recent studies that project her as the leader. Only two pollsters since Oct. 11 find Hobbs holding the ballot test edge, and then only by one percentage point in both instances. Therefore, it is fair to give Lake the edge heading into election day.

Georgia: Gov. Kemp Pulling Away in New Polls — The aforementioned University of Georgia poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (see Georgia Senate above) also tested the state’s competitive governor’s race. Here, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has led former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in polling throughout the election cycle. The UGA poll is consistent with this common finding. Again, running far ahead of Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker, Gov. Kemp posts a 51-44 percent advantage, well beyond the polling margin of error for such a statewide poll.

Three of the four pollsters that tested the Senate race in the last few days also asked a question about the governor’s campaign. Remington Research, Echelon Insights, and Survey USA all find Kemp leading Abrams by 14, 7, and 7 points, respectively. It also appears clear that Gov. Kemp is headed toward a clear victory once ballot counting officially begins.

Close in Colorado; Dead Heats in Ariz., PA; Herrell Pulling Away in NM; Oregon Upset in the Making?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 4, 2022

Senate

Republican Colorado Senate challenger Joe O’Dea (R)

Colorado: Closest Reported Poll — The Colorado Senate race, like the Washington contest, has always been on the periphery of competitiveness, and now we see the closest poll between Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and construction company owner Joe O’Dea (R). The Trafalgar Group (Oct. 30-Nov. 1; 1,084 likely Colorado general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) new poll breaks only 48-46 percent in favor of the incumbent. This is the first time we’ve seen a survey that finds the candidates this close. The other most recent studies give the senator leads of between eight and 14 percentage points.

Polling: Critical Senate Races in Dead Heats — The Civiqs polling firm, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections website (Oct. 29-Nov. 2; 859 likely Arizona general election voters; online) sees Arizona Republican Blake Masters coming back all the way to an even standing versus Sen. Mark Kelly (D), and with the momentum on his side. The Civiqs numbers see a flat 49-49 percent flat tie between the two men while the early voting numbers and the governor’s race looks to slightly favor the Republicans.

Another post-debate poll in Pennsylvania was released yesterday. In the sixth of eight surveys produced since the Oct. 25 meeting between Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), the former man has either taken a slight lead or the two are tied. The latest, from Susquehanna Polling & Research (Oct. 28-Nov. 1; 700 likely Pennsylvania general election voters; live interview) sees Dr. Oz leading Fetterman, 48-47 percent.

House

NM-2: Poll Shows Rep. Herrell Pulling Away — The few polls we’ve seen in the gerrymandered new 2nd Congressional District has found freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) slightly trailing Las Cruces City Councilman Gil Vasquez (D) in the newly constructed southern New Mexico district designed to elect a Democrat. The new Emerson College survey (Oct. 25-28; 302 likely NM-2 general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Rep. Herrell pulling away to a slight double-digit lead over Vasquez, however. This latest ballot test gives the congresswoman a significantly wide 54-44 percent advantage.

Governor

Oregon: Independent Still Throwing Race to Republican — The latest Oregon gubernatorial poll, this one from Nelson Research (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 577 likely Oregon general election voters), sees former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R) holding a three-point, 44-41 percent, edge over ex-state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D). Independent candidate Betsy Johnson, who appeared for a long while had a legitimate to win, has dropped back to only six percent support. This latter number, however, still appears enough to toss the election Drazan’s way. Of those who have early voted, according to Nelson Research, Drazan holds a one-point lead. A Republican win here would be a major upset in this most liberal of states.

Wisconsin: Dead Heat Headed into Election Day — While polling suggests that Sen. Ron Johnson (R) has a slight lead heading into Tuesday’s vote, the gubernatorial race between Gov. Tony Evers (D) and GOP businessman Tim Michels appears to be a dead heat. Frequent Wisconsin pollster Marquette Law School released their pre-election survey (Oct. 24-Nov. 1; 802 registered Wisconsin voters; 679 likely Wisconsin voters) the two candidates are tied at 48 percent, while Michels holds a slight 45-44 percent edge among those registered. Michels, however, has held a slight lead in the previously published five mid to late October polls.