Tag Archives: SC-4

Endorsing NJ’s First Lady;
GOP Primary Challenge in SC-4; Washington’s Surprising Republican Contender; Louisiana Runoff Results

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2023

Senate

Tammy Murphy, New Jersey’s First Lady

New Jersey: Tammy Murphy Scoring Key Endorsements — Being New Jersey’s First Lady certainly has its perks. Since announcing her Senate challenge to indicted incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) late last week, Tammy Murphy, the wife of incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D), already has secured four important county party endorsements.

In New Jersey, official county party endorsements mean more than in other states because the favored candidates received substantially better ballot positions in addition to having access to party resources. So far, the state’s two largest Democratic local party organizations, Bergen and Middlesex Counties, along with those in Camden and Hudson, have awarded Ms. Murphy their endorsements.

Additionally, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), who is reportedly testing the waters for a 2025 gubernatorial race when Mr. Murphy is ineligible to seek re-election, became the state’s first sitting US House member to endorse the First Lady. Aside from Sen. Menendez, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is in what is already becoming a highly competitive statewide Democratic primary campaign.

House

SC-4: Rep. Timmons Facing Potentially Strong Primary — In 2022, South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) found himself winning his renomination campaign with just 53 percent of the vote against what were thought to be minor opponents. A highly publicized extra-marital affair that included accusing the congressman of using his office resources to conceal his activity was largely the reason his primary was so close.

On Friday, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Taylors) announced that he will challenge Rep. Timmons in the June primary election. Since Morgan will be a stronger opponent than any of the three individuals who ran in 2022, the 2024 primary will be one worth watching.

Governor

Washington: PPP’s Surprise Poll — Public Policy Polling again conducted one of their regular Washington statewide surveys for the Northwest Progressive Institute and the results are eye-opening. According to the PPP study (Nov. 14-15; 750 registered Washington voters; multiple sampling techniques), former Congressman Dave Reichert (R) and Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) are tied with 31 percent support apiece.

The shocker comes when the pollsters queried the respondents about who they would support in a general election assuming that both Reichert and Ferguson advance from the all-party jungle primary into the November election. On the ballot test, Reichert enjoyed a 46-44 percent lead over AG Ferguson. It is an astonishing result in that a Republican would post any kind of an advantage in Washington, one of the most Democratic states in the Union.

States

Louisiana: Runoff Election Results — After electing a new governor outright in the Nov. 14 election as Governor-Elect Jeff Landry (R) was able to secure majority support, Republicans finished the 2023 statewide elections with a landslide sweep. The GOP won the secretary of state, attorney general, and state treasurer’s office with between 65 and 67 percent of the vote. Former Congressman John Fleming (R) returns to elective office with his victory as State Treasurer.

Turnout was extremely low with almost 670,000 votes cast, which is just 44 percent of the total participation figure from the last statewide runoff in 2019. In that election, however, the governor’s race was being decided. The lack of the governor and lieutenant governor being forced into runoffs is the obvious reason turnout was down by such a large proportion.

Vance Surges in Ohio; Hill Withdraws in SC-4; Ohio Gov. DeWine With a Double Digit Lead; Term Limits

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 25, 2022

Senate

Author J.D. Vance, Ohio Senate Candidate

Ohio: Vance Tilts Up — After a series of polls from the end of June through early August found US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) leading the Ohio US Senate general election, a second survey this week sees Republican J.D. Vance surging ahead. For the early part of the campaign, Ryan was spending heavily on advertising that Vance and his Republican allies left unchecked, thus largely explaining why the Democrat was able to build a lead. Now that Vance has countered, he has already moved past the veteran congressman.

The new Trafalgar Group survey (Aug. 16-19; 1,087 likely Ohio general election voters; multi-sampling techniques) finds Vance topping Ryan, 50-45 percent. This largely confirms the Emerson College poll released earlier in the week that saw Vance holding a similar 45-42 percent advantage.

SC-4: Rep. Timmons Catches Break — South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) caught a major re-election break earlier this week when his Democratic opponent, Ken Hill, withdrew from the race. Hill said his business responsibilities, which now require him to spend substantial time in New York, make it impossible for him to continue his congressional campaign.

Rep. Timmons won a closer-than-expected Republican primary in June, avoiding a runoff with just 52.7 percent of the vote, largely due to extramarital affair allegations and related unproven claims that he was improperly using his congressional power. Now, he will run without having a Democratic opponent. Businesswoman Lee Turner (D) says she will run as a write-in candidate, however. Under South Carolina election procedure, it is too late for the Democratic Party to officially replace Hill on the ballot.

Governor

Ohio: Gov. DeWine Leading In Double-Digits — A week after a Lake Research Partners (D) survey found Gov. Mike DeWine (R) edging Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D) by a slim 44-43 percent margin, the aforementioned Trafalgar Group Ohio survey (see Ohio Senate above) and an Emerson College poll (Aug. 15-16; 925 likely Ohio general election voters; multi-sampling techniques) see the governor pulling away to a pair of substantial leads. Trafalgar projects a 16-point advantage for Gov. DeWine at 54-38 percent. Emerson College posts a similar 49-33 percent spread.

House

US Term Limits’ Polling Series: Six New August Polls — The US Term Limits organization has been conducting a series of US House polls around the nation. RMG Research conducted the House campaign surveys for the group and released the results of six new polls conducted between July 31 and Aug. 15. All included 400 likely general election voters, but how the polling samples were surveyed was not disclosed.

Of the six August polls, two incumbents were ahead, two were behind, and one was tied. The other study surveyed a North Carolina open-seat electorate. In Arizona, Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) leads businessman Kelly Cooper (R), 46-39 percent. Washington Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Sammamish) held a 47-43 percent edge over Matt Larkin (R), the 2020 finalist in the attorney general’s race.

The two trailing incumbents are Reps. Susan Wild (D-PA) and David Trone (D-MD). The tied incumbent is Nevada Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas). In the Allentown-Bethlehem district, GOP challenger Lisa Scheller held a 47-43 percent advantage over Wild. Maryland state Delegate Neil Parrott (R-Frederick) topped Rep. Trone, 45-43 percent, while Rep. Horsford and insurance agency owner Sam Peters (R) were tied at 43 percent preference. In the lone released open seat poll, Republican Bo Hines held a 44-39 percent lead over North Carolina state Sen. Wiley Nickel (D-Raleigh).

Two More Head Out the House Door

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 2, 2018
— The cavalcade of US House retirements continued with two more well known veteran members, one from each party, making public their intention to retire from Congress.

Counting this latest pair, the number of representatives not seeking re-election has now risen to 53 (37 Republicans; 16 Democrats). Four of the open seats are currently vacant and in special elections, though the MI-13 contest (former Rep. John Conyers, D-Detroit) will run concurrently with the regular cycle.

SC-4

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-Spartanburg, SC) | Facebook

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-Spartanburg, SC) | Facebook

Four-term GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-Spartanburg) announced that he will also retire at the end of the current Congress. Gowdy, chairman of the House Oversight & Government Reform Committee, had signaled his desire to return to South Carolina as early as the 2014 election but continued to remain and now will do so just through the final year of the current term. Prior to assuming the leadership of the government reform committee, Gowdy came to national notoriety as chairman of the special House investigatory committee on the Benghazi situation.

Rep. Gowdy’s 4th Congressional District largely encompasses the Greenville-Spartanburg metropolitan area in the Palmetto State’s northwestern corner. As the Spartanburg County solicitor (known as district attorneys in most states), Gowdy ousted then-Rep. Bob Inglis in the 2010 Republican primary, and has easily been elected and re-elected ever since.

He was commonly viewed as a rising Republican star in the House but eschewed the opportunity to enter any internal leadership races. Gowdy says he will not be on the ballot for any office in 2018, and is planning to return to the South Carolina jurisprudence system.

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