Tag Archives: Rhode Island

Democratic Primary Poll Numbers; D’Esposito Draws Initial Opponent; Military Doc Announces for House; 17 Candidates for RI-1 Seat

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 28, 2023

President

Fox News Poll: First Democratic Primary Numbers — Fox News released the results of their current poll (conducted by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R); April 21-24; 1,004 US registered voters; 392 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), which looks to be the first national survey testing the Democratic presidential nomination campaign featuring President Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and author Marianne Williamson.

In a contest most believe will not be much competition for the presidency, Biden reaches only 62 percent among the Democratic partisans, a number viewed as low for an incumbent within his own party. Kennedy records 19 percent support, while Williamson is the choice of nine percent.

House

NY-4: Rep. D’Esposito Draws Initial Opponent — New York freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) was the biggest upset winner in the 2022 election. He captured a Long Island-anchored 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight organization rates as D+10, which is tied with California Rep. David Valadao’s (R) CA-22 as the most Democratic seat that elected a Republican to the US House.

Rep. D’Esposito has now drawn his first re-election opponent. Attorney and two-time congressional candidate Pat Maher (D) yesterday announced that he will again run for Congress. It is likely, however, that the local Democratic leadership will recruit and support a stronger candidate once the election cycle progresses.

NC-13: Military Physician Announces for House — Surgeon and Air Force Reserve Col. Josh McConkey (R), who is also an adjunct professor at Duke University, announced that he will challenge freshman North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Raleigh) in the state’s 13th District.

The challenger field has largely been held in check so far because it is apparent that the North Carolina legislature will redraw the current court-drawn congressional map. This should make the swing 13th CD more Republican. The 2022 nominee, businessman Bo Hines (R), who lost to Nickel 52-48 percent, is likely to also enter the Republican primary.

RI-1: Now, There Are 17 — Lincoln Town Councilmember Pamela Azar became the 17th Democrat to enter the special election campaign to replace Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence), who is expected to resign from the House on June 1. Gov. Dan McKee (D) has already said he will call the special primary election for Sept. 5. The special general will then be scheduled concurrently with the regular municipal elections on Nov. 7.

In a 1st District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32, Rep. Cicilline’s successor will be determined in the huge Democratic primary. Within the field are Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, six sitting state legislators, two local officials, and a former White House aide.

Utah GOP County to Censure Romney; Rhode Island Election Calendar;
2026 Race Already Underway in Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 3, 2023

Senate

Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) | Facebook

Utah: GOP County to Censure Sen. Romney — The Utah Republican Party’s conservative flank is beginning to take action against GOP Sen. Mitt Romney, as he considers whether to seek a second term next year. The Emery County Republican Party will consider a resolution to officially censure Sen. Romney with language that includes the phrase, “ … providing aid and comfort to Democrats by voting for Trump’s ‘20/’21 impeachment, for not helping Trump in 2020, and marching in an openly communist and anti-American BLM protest” during that same year.

This act may be the first of other such moves to portray Romney as being outside of the Republican mainstream, thus paving the way for a GOP primary challenger. Former US representative and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz has been mentioned as a possible Romney challenger.

House

RI-1: Governor Announces Special Election Calendar — With so many individuals either announcing or moving toward a congressional special election candidac — 11 at last count — Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) last week announced the voting schedule he plans to call when Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigns on June 1 to accept a position leading a granting foundation.

The governor will schedule the special primary on Sept. 5 this year, with the special general slated for the regular election on Nov. 7. The Democratic primary will decide the election since the 1st District will heavily favor the party’s eventual nominee. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+32.

Governor

Ohio: 2026 Race Already Underway — Lt. Gov. John Husted (R) launched his campaign last week for governor even though the election is still almost four years away. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) was elected to a second term in November, but is ineligible to seek a third term.

Husted is not the only candidate getting a head start. Previously announcing that they would run for governor in the 2023 are former Department of Homeland Security official and conservative think tank president Matt Mayer (R) and Iraq War veteran Jeremiah Workman (R).

Christie: “Stop Trump”; The Jan. 6 Effect in OH-9; RI-1 Candidate List Grows; Chicago Runoff on Tues.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 31, 2023

President

Former NJ Gov. Chris Christie

Chris Christie: Unique Pitch — Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is making appearances in New Hampshire and telling Republicans that they “need him” on the debate dais in order to “stop Trump.” It is unlikely that such a strategy will bear much political fruit, but it is certainly possible that Christie will enter the presidential race.

House

OH-9: New Candidate Emerges — Ohio US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) is one of only five Democrats who represent seats that former President Donald Trump carried in 2020. Post-redistricting, Rep. Kaptur found herself placed in a seat that is strongly Republican, but was fortunate in drawing GOP candidate J.R. Majewski, who was part of the January 6 raid on the Capitol. She easily dispensed with her opponent, 57-43 percent, despite the district’s R+6 partisan lean.

A new contender came to the forefront yesterday, which will likely make the 2024 race much more competitive. In what is expected to be the first of several Republican candidates to announce, former Walbridge Mayor Dan Wilczynski yesterday made his declaration.

Rep. Kaptur is the Dean of House Democrats. She was first elected in 1982, thus serving her 21st two-year term.

RI-1: Candidate List Continues to Grow — Despite Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) not resigning his seat until June 1, the list of impending special election candidates continues to grow. Woonsocket Mayor Lisa Baldelli-Hunt (D) is adding her name to the list of those either announcing for the seat or considering entering the campaign. Her addition expands the candidate and potential candidate list to nine Democrats. At a D+32 rating, Rep. Cicilline’s successor will be determined in the special Democratic primary.

Baldelli-Hunt is the aunt of Rocco Baldelli, who is the manager of the Minnesota Twins Major League Baseball club. Gov. Dan McKee (D) will issue the special election calendar as soon as Rep. Cicilline officially resigns.

Cities

Chicago: Conflicting Surveys — Yesterday, we covered a poll released by Emerson College, which posted former Chicago Schools CEO Paul Vallas to a 46-41 percent lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. Now we see a new survey coming into the public domain that shows Johnson in better standing.

Northwestern University’s Center for Diversity and Democracy and several Black and Latino non-profit organizations contracted with the BSP survey research firm (March 15-23; 1,500 registered Chicago voters; live interview, email, and online panel) and produced data that finds the two candidates locked in a 44-44 percent dead heat.

The runoff election is Tuesday, and we are guaranteed a tight finish between the two jungle primary finishers. In the qualifying election, incumbent Lori Lightfoot (D) was defeated.

Familiar Challenger in CA-41;
Special Election RI-1 Candidates Grow, Skepticism in WI-3 Race;
New Orleans Recall Effort Fails

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 24, 2023

House

California Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan (D)

CA-41: Rep. Calvert Draws Familiar Challenger — Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan (D), who challenged Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) twice in the pre-redistricting and much more Republican 42nd District, announced this week that he will return to again run for the House in 2024.

In November, Rep. Calvert survived his second closest re-election effort, a 52-48 percent win over former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D) in the new 41st District that is fully contained within Riverside County. We could see action in the all-party jungle primary because Rollins is also considering waging a return re-match with the 16-term incumbent.

RI-1: Special Election Candidate Count Expands to Six — As we reported yesterday, the RI-1 special election will be scheduled when Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigns from the House on June 1. This week, another four individuals announced their special Democratic primary candidacies already bringing the field’s total number to six.

Those previously declaring are Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D) and state Sen. Sandra Cano (D-Pawtucket). The latest to enter are state Rep. Nathan Biah (D-Providence), corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) consultant Nick Autiello, financial consultant Allen Waters, and bus driver Mickeda Barnes. Also as mentioned yesterday, the special election will effectively be decided in the Democratic primary from a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32.

WI-3: Potential Challenger Candidates Skeptical — The 3rd District of Wisconsin occupies the state’s southwestern region and while often voting Republican for president, the electorate returned Democratic Rep. Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) to office 13 consecutive times. Kind retired in 2022, and the Democratic leadership basically conceded the seat to Republican Derrick Van Orden in that the national party spent no money to protect a seat their member held for 26 consecutive years. In the end, Van Orden did win, but his victory margin fell far below predictions in defeating state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse) 52-48 percent.

It appears that Pfaff and two other former congressional candidates, La Crosse City Councilman Mark Neumann and small business owner Rebecca Cooke, are considering entering the 2024 congressional race. All, however, are saying they won’t run unless they are assured of national outside party support.

Mayor

New Orleans: Recall Effort Fails — The move to force a recall vote against Crescent City Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D) came to an abrupt end at the petition signature deadline. The recall organization fell woefully short of recruiting the 45,000 registered voter signatures necessary to force a confirmation election. The Cantrell opposition group was only able to qualify approximately 27,000 signatures, or just 60 percent of the required number. The next regular mayoral election is scheduled for 2025.

Michigan State School Board President Considers Senate Run; Washington Sen. Cantwell Cruising; Ex-Gov. Walker Says No;
House Candidate Announcements

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 23, 2023

Senate

Michigan School Board President Pamela Pugh (D)

Michigan: State School Board President Considers Senate — Michigan School Board President Pamela Pugh (D), who has won two statewide elections to the state school board, a post that features eight-year terms, says she is considering entering the Democratic primary for US Senate.

At this point, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is unopposed for the party nomination, but Pugh says she is concerned with the lack of African American representation throughout the state. Even the congressional delegation has no black Democrats despite the two Detroit-anchored congressional seats featuring plurality African American populations. The only black in the congressional delegation, freshman Rep. John James, is a Republican.

Washington: Sen. Cantwell (D) Cruising in New Poll — Public Policy Polling, the regular survey research firm for the Northwest Progressive Institute, released their latest Washington statewide study (March 7-8; 874 registered Washington voters; live interview & text) and tested the 2024 Senate race featuring four-term incumbent Maria Cantwell (D). Paired with former Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R), who is reportedly considering the challenge, PPP finds Sen. Cantwell holding a comfortable 50-35 percent advantage.

The 2022 Washington Senate race was billed as a competitive contest between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Republican Tiffany Smiley, but ended in a 57-43 percent result. Since Republicans have a target-rich Senate cycle in 2024, it is doubtful the party will invest any serious resources toward a Cantwell challenge.

Wisconsin: Ex-Gov. Walker Says No — While Republicans are searching for a candidate to challenge two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in a race that could become competitive, one prominent Republican closed the door on a candidacy. Former two-term Gov. Scott Walker (R), who twice was elected governor but was defeated for a third term after not faring well in the 2016 presidential race, says he will not run for the Senate next year. The two potential GOP candidates most talked about are Walker’s former lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch, and businessman Scott Mayer.

House

MI-7: Mayor Won’t Run — Recently, Lansing Mayor Andy Schor (D) launched a congressional exploratory committee since Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) will vacate the 7th Congressional District seat in order to run for the state’s open Senate seat. Typically, filing such a committee is the first step to announcing a candidacy, but in this case the opposite has occurred. Clearly, Mayor Schor did not find the results for which he had hoped, and announced Monday that he would not be a candidate for the 2024 open seat.

No one has yet announced for the 7th District. It is presumed that 2022 Republican candidate Tom Barrett, now a former state senator, will again make a run for the seat. He lost 51-46 percent to Rep. Slotkin last November.

RI-1: Second Special Election Candidate Announces — Though Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) will not resign from the House until June 1 to accept a position running a large Rhode Island non-profit organization, two Democratic candidates wanting to succeed him in Congress have now announced for the impending special election. Last week, Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D) declared her candidacy, and now state Sen. Sandra Cano (D-Pawtucket) has followed suit.

Once Rep. Cicilline officially resigns, Gov. Dan McKee (D) will then schedule a special election to fill the seat for the balance of the current term. The special election will be decided in the Democratic primary in a safe seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32.

Gallego Ahead in Arizona; Montana Senate Race Update; Republican Garcia Draws Opponent in Calif.; First Major Candidate Announces in R.I.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 13, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona: Gallego Leads & Sinema Gains in New Poll — With no Republican as of yet announcing for the 2024 Arizona Senate race, frequent Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights released their latest Senate poll. The survey (Jan. 31-Feb. 9; 1,000 registered Arizona voters) gives US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) the lead under all configurations. The pollster continues to add former Gov. Doug Ducey to the Republican candidate mix even though he has repeatedly said that he is not running. Therefore, we will eliminate covering polling results that include him.

Rep. Gallego polls between 31 and 34 percent in scenarios that include former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, ex-US Senate nominee Blake Masters, and former governor candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. The Republicans post scores between 24 and 26 percent. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party to become an Independent, improves her standing from previous polling. She would take between 19 and 22 percent under the various scenarios.

With a late primary in August 2024, much will happen to develop the ultimate candidate lineup. This poll, as do others, suggest a wide-open three-way race where either Gallego, a Republican, or Sinema ultimately could eventually win. Arizona will once again be at the forefront of the battle for the Senate majority.

Montana: Rep. Rosendale Leads in Primary & General — The OnMessage Republican polling firm released the results of their latest Montana US Senate poll (Feb. 18-21; 600 likely Montana voters with an over-sample of 100 Republicans for GOP primary questions; live interview) and the results provide good news across the board for US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive).

Though no one has announced a Senate bid against three-term incumbent Jon Tester (D), OnMessage tested a hypothetical Republican primary consisting of Reps. Rosendale and Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) along with former Secretary of State Corey Stapleton. For this question, Rep. Rosendale posted a 36-26-6 percent lead over Zinke and Stapleton. Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R), who has also been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, was not tested.

In the general election, in a reversal of a previous Political Company survey result, OnMessage finds Rep. Rosendale topping Sen. Tester, 46-41 percent. There is no report as to whether the pollsters tested the other candidates singularly against Sen. Tester.

House

CA-27: Rep. Garcia Draws New Opponent — GOP Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) has won three elections in a seat that favors the Democrats against former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D), but he’s almost certain to see a new challenger in 2024.

Franky Carrillo (D) was falsely imprisoned for 22 years, convicted for a murder later proven he did not commit and was awarded $11 million in compensation after winning a lawsuit against the state of California. Since then, Carrillo has been appointed as a Los Angeles County Probation Oversight commissioner. Last week, he announced that he will run for the US House next year.

It’s clear that the Democrats must change the paradigm against Rep. Garcia, and it remains to be seen if Carrillo is the type of candidate who can alter the partisan flow of this northern Los Angeles County CD against an incumbent who has proven he can draw crossover votes.

RI-1: First Major Candidate Announces — Last week, Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) announced that he is resigning his seat on June 1 to accept a position with a non-profit organization. While the list of potential Democratic candidates who might declare for the impending special election to be scheduled later this year is long, the first major contender just announced her plans late last week. Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), the former president of the Providence City Council, formally declared her congressional candidacy.

The real political battle for this seat will be fought in the Democratic primary. In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32, it is a foregone conclusion that Rep. Cicilline’s eventual successor will be a Democrat. Expect a crowded field and a plurality primary victory that will lead to an easy Democratic special general election win.

A Rematch in Michigan; Dems to Target NY-22; RI Special Election Emerges; the Race for WVa Gov.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 3, 2023

House

Former local judge and ex-Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D)

MI-10: Re-Match Likely — Michigan’s new Detroit suburban 10th District was drawn as a competitive seat, and the 48.8 – 48.3 percent finish in Republican John James’ favor certainly lent support to the pre-election predictions. Though he did not contest the original outcome by calling for a recount, it appears that former local judge and ex-Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D) is reportedly telling supporters that he is planning to return for a re-match.

Rep. James (R-Farmington Hills), who twice lost tight US Senate battles, has already said he will not join the open statewide 2024 candidate field so he can defend this politically marginal House district. We can expect another major competitive battle here next year.

NY-22: Democrat Already Exits — Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) is a newcomer to elected politics and is expected to be a major Democratic target in the 2024 election considering he is one of less than 20 members holding a district opposite of the electorate’s partisan lean. Only weeks ago, Manlius Town Council member Katelyn Kriesel announced that she would file to oppose the new congressman next year. However, she opted out of the race on Wednesday citing family reasons.

NY-22 will be a major target, but for the short term, anyway, Democrats lack a candidate. Expect one to emerge, but now it appears that time is favoring Rep. Williams.

RI-1: Movement Beginning for Special Election Battle — Last week, Rhode Island US Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) announced that he will be resigning his seat on June 1 to become president & CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation, a funding organization that supports projects in the Ocean State. The move means we will see a special election in the state’s 1st District later this year.

So far, Attorney General Peter Neronha (D) says he will not run for the congressional seat, but others are assessing their political prospects. Two who appear to be leaning toward running are state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) and Biden White House aide Gabe Amo (D).

Other potential candidates include Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), former Secretary of State and ex-gubernatorial candidate Nellie Gorbea (D), state Senate Majority Leader Ryan Pearson (D-Cumberland), and many local mayors and state legislators. The battle will be in the Democratic primary since the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates RI-1 as a heavily Democratic district at D+32.

Governor

West Virginia: State Auditor Enters Open Race — Elected state Auditor J.B. McCluskey (R) announced that he will forego re-election to become an open-race gubernatorial candidate. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is ineligible to seek a third term but may declare his candidacy opposite Sen. Joe Machin (D) in the next few days.

McCuskey and Secretary of State Mac Warner (R) are the only statewide officials in the candidate field. State Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), and businessman Chris Miller (R), son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), are already in the field along with private preschool owner Rashida Yost (R) and rancher Terri Bradshaw (R). No Democratic candidate has yet stepped forward.