Tag Archives: Rhode Island

2020 Senate Review – Part III

By Jim Ellis

March 27, 2019
— The third and final segment of our three-part Senate review covers the races alphabetically from North Carolina through Wyoming, with a re-visit to the new open seat in New Mexico:

  • New Mexico – Sen. Tom Udall (D)Open Seat – Since our Senate review began, Sen. Udall, who looked to be a lock for election to a third term, announced he will not run in 2020. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but Republicans have won statewide races here as late as 2014, so the potential for a competitive 2020 campaign exists.
    So far, Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) and US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) both confirm they are considering running, as is 2018 Republican nominee Mick Rich. Two individuals have already said they will not enter the Senate race: Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) and Santa Fe Mayor Alan Webber (D). Many more potential candidacies from both parties are being discussed. Currently, this open seat earns at the very least a Lean Democrat rating but is realistically Likely Democratic.

  • North Carolina – Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – This will be a top-tier race, as are almost all North Carolina Senate races. Sen. Tillis ousted then-Sen. Kay Hagan (D) in 2014 in a state that has re-elected only one senator since the days of Sam Ervin (D) and Jesse Helms (R).
    The Democrats failed to recruit their top target in Attorney General Josh Stein (D), and so far, their field is second tier. Only Mecklenburg County commissioner-at-large Trevor Fuller (D) and state Sen. Erica Smith (D-Gaston) have declared their candidacy.
    Sen. Tillis received pushback for originally opposing President Trump’s emergency border declaration, which has fueled rumors of a potential primary challenge. Therefore, the North Carolina campaign is in a state of flux. Much will change here in the coming year to affect the outcome. Currently, rate this seat as Lean Republican.

  • Oklahoma – Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) – The major discussion surrounds whether 84-year-old veteran Sen. Inhofe will retire. If he runs, the election campaign may be slightly more competitive based upon the 2018 Oklahoma results, in which the Democrats made some significant gains. Even if they continue to build momentum, their chances of winning a statewide election in the Sooner State still remain slim. Likely Republican until it becomes clear whether or not Sen. Inhofe will seek re-election.

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Kentucky Gubernatorial Race
Challengers Emerging

By Jim Ellis

Unpopular Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R)

Jan. 9, 2019 — Blue Grass State politics are beginning to boil, all centered around the 2019 governor’s race. With the candidate filing deadline fast approaching on Jan. 29 for the May 21 statewide primary, several individuals are announcing that they will challenge unpopular Gov. Matt Bevin (R), including a Republican state legislator who is expected to make his formal declaration today.

Though the governor has said he intends to seek a second term, and did so again a week before Christmas, the fact that he has yet to file a 2019 campaign committee has fueled speculation that he may decide to retire. Bevin was elected in 2015 with a relatively substantial 52.5 – 43.8 percent victory over then-Attorney General Jack Conway (D) after upsetting then-agriculture commissioner and now US congressman, James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), by just 83 votes in a May Republican primary that drew almost 215,000 voters.

Bevin’s popularity ratings, however, have largely been upside-down throughout his tenure in office. According to the Morning Consult quarterly national gubernatorial approval rankings that were released just before the November elections in mid-October, Gov. Bevin ranked 46th on the nationwide list, with a 30:55 percent positive to negative ratio.

None of those finishing below the Kentucky governor on that particular scale in October remains in office. The least popular, according to the survey, Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin (R), was ineligible to seek a third term last November. Republican Kevin Stitt replaced her. Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy (D) did not seek a third term and Democrat Ned Lamont held the office. Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) was defeated for re-election, and Alaska Independent Gov. Bill Walker withdrew before the election because his political situation was hopeless.

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Apportionment Projections:
Who is Gaining, Who is Losing

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 3, 2019 — Late last year, we covered the new Census Bureau report for the states gaining and losing population during the past 12-month period. Now, we see the agency’s latest just-released numbers for the decade through this past July. Armed with the new data, outside mathematicians have made apportionment projections to provide a more defined picture as to which states will be gaining or losing US House seats in the 2020 post-census reapportionment.

With two years remaining in the present decade, trends can still change and we must remember that the reapportionment formula is complex, but the new projections give us a strong idea as to just how many seats, give or take a small variance, will transfer. At this point, according to the Washington, DC-based Election Data Services, it appears that as many as 22 seats could change location affecting 17 states.

Texas, having gained 3.55 million people since the 2010 census, looks to be adding as many as three seats for the 2022 elections and beyond. This will give the Lone Star State 39 seats during the next decade, and 41 electoral votes in the succeeding presidential elections.

Florida was the second largest gainer with just under 2.5 million new residents, meaning the Sunshine State will likely gain two seats, going from 27 to 29. In terms of raw numbers, California gained more than 2.3 million people, but it actually dropped a tenth of a point below the national growth average of 6.3 percent for the past eight years. This means the Golden State is currently on the hook to actually lose a district for the first time in history.

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Projecting Apportionment

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 7, 2018 — New population growth numbers are now available from the Census Bureau, allowing us to gain more clues about how the coming 2020 post-census apportionment might look for the nation’s congressional districts.

Every 10 years, states gain and lose CDs based upon their total population and percentage growth figures. The current US population of 327,774,453 represents a growth rate of 5.96 percent when compared to 2010.

Currently, Idaho is the fastest growing state for 2018, with a gain of 2.15 percent for the current year, the only state to break the two percent barrier for the period. Nevada (1.96 percent), Utah (1.85 percent), Washington (1.69 percent), and Florida (1.56 percent) round out the top five.

The group constituting the bottom half of the top 10 in 2018 growth contains Arizona (1.53 percent), Texas (1.41 percent), Colorado (1.37 percent), Oregon (1.37 percent), and South Carolina (1.28 percent).

On the other hand, eight states, led by Wyoming (-0.97 percent), actually lost population during the year. The others are West Virginia, Illinois, Alaska, Hawaii, Mississippi, Louisiana, and North Dakota.

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Rhode Island Results

By Jim Ellis

RHODE-ISLANDSept. 13, 2018 — The Ocean State conducted the final primary before the general election yesterday, and Gov. Gina Raimondo was successfully re-nominated in the Democratic primary. But her victory margin wasn’t particularly impressive.

Now, all states with the exception of Louisiana have held their federal nomination elections. Because the Bayou State leaders desire a system that allows candidates to win an office in one election – by obtaining majority support – such a procedure is only legally possible when that one election is scheduled concurrently with the regular general vote. For those who fail to achieve majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, advance into a Dec. 8 run-off to determine the final outcome.

In Rhode Island, Gov. Raimondo scored a 57-33 percent re-nomination victory percentage against former Secretary of State Matt Brown, with a turnout basis of just over 116,000 Democratic primary voters. Minor candidate Spencer Dickinson captured the remaining nine percent of the vote. The fact that almost 43 percent of Democratic voters chose a candidate other than their sitting governor is obviously not a good sign for her as Gov. Raimondo now embarks upon a general election campaign.

But her positive spin is that Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, was also the party nominee in 2014, win the Republican primary again last night. His victory percentage last night was virtually the same as the governor’s — about 56.5 percent — but from a small Republican voter base of just under 33,000 individuals. State House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan, who was running to ung’s right, took 40 percent of the GOP vote.

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