Tag Archives: Rep. Steve Knight

California 2018: Some Explanation

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 1, 2019 — One of the principle reasons the 2018 US House elections evolved from a close Democratic majority to a rout was the California results. The Sacramento Bee newspaper just published an article that Capitol reporter Kate Irby wrote (Jan. 29, 2019; updated Jan. 30, 2019), which provides part of the explanation as to why so many Golden State congressional seats flipped from R to D: seven to be exact. (See Irby’s article here: ‘Trump effect:’ California Latino voters showed up in force in 2018. Will they do it again?)

One major reason, according to the statistics derived from the Political Data Inc. firm and the California Civic Engagement Project at the University of Southern California research is the increased number of Hispanic votes in each of the seven districts in question.

The key finding in all seven of the flipped districts, is the Hispanic vote percentage generally equaled that of a presidential election and was substantially higher than from the previous midterm election (2014).

Additionally, most of the districts saw a significant increase in Hispanic population since 2014, meaning an even greater raw number of voters when adding the increased turnout percentage. When reading the Hispanic figures remember that approximately two-thirds of that particular vote segment, at a minimum, was cast for the Democratic candidate.

Below are the findings:

CA-10: (Modesto, Tracy, Turlock)

New Member: Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock)
Former Member: Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Turlock)

Final Totals
Harder: 119,945 – 52.3%	Denham: 105,955 – 47.7%
Denham 2016 Vote: 124,671 – 51.7%	Difference from 2016: 18,716
Hispanic Vote Base:	2018: 26% 2014: 18%
Hispanic Participation:*	2018: 58% 2016: 68%	2014: 29%
Raw Number Hispanic Registered Voters:	2018: 91,132 2014: 53,602
Raw Number Hispanic Turnout:	2018: 52,857 2014: 15,555

Increased Hispanic Raw Number Vote from 2014 to 2018: 37,302

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Surprising Q3 Financial Disclosures

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 19, 2018 — The third quarter financial disclosure reports are now public, and more details are readily available. Thus, we are able to learn about various record-setting fundraising efforts.

In addition to Texas US Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) attracting $38 million in the third quarter, an all-time record for any such campaign, several House candidates also reported financial numbers that have never been seen for district-level politics.

In the third quarter of 2018, nine House contenders exceeded raising $3 million, eight Democrats and one Republican.

In California’s 22nd District, incumbent Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare), the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, was the top Republican fundraiser and appears to have accumulated more financial resources for the entire campaign than any other congressional candidate of either party. In the quarter, Rep. Nunes raised $3.14 million. For the campaign, he has exceeded the $10.5 million mark.

But his Democratic opponent, attorney Andrew Janz, brought in over $4 million for the quarter, the only congressional candidate in the US to do so, and an all-time record for a quarter. He still trails Rep. Nunes in overall receipts (Janz posted $7.13 million for the campaign), however. Together, this campaign leads the nation in combined fundraising with over $17 million. For a regular cycle congressional campaign – not including the special elections we saw earlier that became national contests – this, too, is likely an all-time record for a House contest.

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Surprising California House
Non-Endorsements

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 28, 2018 — Yesterday, we reported that the California Democratic Party state convention delegates snubbed veteran Sen. Dianne Feinstein by not officially endorsing her for re-election. The US House endorsements, or lack of them in many instances, also featured some unexpected results.

Looking at the 14 Golden State Republican incumbents, seven of whom Democratic leaders have publicly identified as targets for the upcoming election, the state delegates left four of these top conversion opportunities without an endorsed candidate.

In the campaigns against Reps. Jeff Denham (R-Turlock/Modesto), Steve Knight (R-Palmdale), and in the open districts of the 39th (Rep. Ed Royce retiring) and 49th (Rep. Darrell Issa retiring), the Democratic candidate contingent in each contest will head into the June 5 jungle primary election with no one carrying the official party endorsement.

In the other two top-tier targeted districts, convention delegates officially endorsed Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/ Bakersfield) in the 21st and Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Irvine) in the 45th. The activists chose their 2016 nominee, attorney Emilio Huerta, to run against Rep. Valadao; Huerta actually performed poorly against the congressman in 2016, losing 57-43 percent, while Hillary Clinton carried the district 55-40 percent. However, Huerta is the only announced candidate in this race; therefore, he was easily able to exceed the 60 percent threshold needed to claim the state party endorsement.

In the Walters district, the party delegates chose law professor Dave Min as their endorsed candidate. This is a bit of a surprise because fellow law professor and consumer advocate Katie Porter seems to be attracting at least an equivalent level of campaign support. Both have outside endorsements, each has raised over $675,000 (Min: $679,000; Porter: $741,000), and the two each have more than $400,000 in the bank (Min: $411,000; Porter: $510,000). In addition to these two candidates, four other Democrats are also on the ballot. Min, however, is clearly the better inside political player since he was able to convince a super majority of convention delegates to publicly back his campaign.

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The Money Factor

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 21, 2016 — Breaking information is now allowing us to categorize the recent rhetoric from strategists’ in both parties. The newly released Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports and accompanying media spending figures give us a pretty clear indication about which races are truly hot, versus those that can be classified as pretenders.

The 3rd quarter disclosure reports are available for most campaigns but some of the Senate contests, such as the critical Missouri and Indiana races, have not yet been processed and released to the public.

According to a Politico report, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has reserved more media time than their Republican counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee. But, most of the Republican Senate candidates report more cash-on-hand than their Democratic opponents, thus making the resource deficit a bit less pronounced.

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