Tag Archives: Rep. Stephen Lynch

Capuano Thrashed; MA-3 Undecided

Boston-City-Councilwoman-Ayanna-PressleyBy Jim Ellis

Sept. 5, 2018
— Ten-term Massachusetts Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Somerville) was unseated last night as at-large Boston City Councilwoman Ayanna Pressley scored a major 59-41 percent victory in the 7th District Democratic primary.

The challenger victory means that a total of four US House incumbents to date, two Democrats and two Republicans, have been denied re-nomination. The other three are Reps. Joe Crowley (D-NY), Bob Pittenger (R-NC), and Mark Sanford (R-SC).

The 7th District is Massachusetts’ only majority minority district and Pressley, who is African American, successfully coalesced the minority communities behind her campaign. She was quoted last night as saying that while the situation is different than in New York where Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez defeated Rep. Crowley, the energy and momentum behind her own campaign greatly increased after the New York result became a national story.

Pressley demonstrated her ability in uniting minority voters, particularly in Boston where she is a known entity, despite the community leadership largely backing Rep. Capuano. Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, former Gov. Deval Patrick, the Congressional Black Caucus, and most labor unions all supported Rep. Capuano. Polling never projected Rep. Capuano gaining majority support, but it also failed to foretell him losing and by such a decisive margin.

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Markey Wins; Now Faces Investor Gomez

As projected, Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) defeated his House Democratic colleague, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8), in last night’s special US Senate party primary election. Markey racked up an expected 57-43 percent margin over Lynch, with a turnout of more than 530,000 Democratic voters. All of the candidates are vying for Secretary of State John Kerry’s Senate seat, now held by interim Sen. Mo Cowan (D).

Both men racked up strong percentages in the congressional districts they represent; Markey in the 5th District north and west of Boston, and Lynch in the 8th CD anchored in the area south of Massachusetts’ capital city including the towns of Quincy, Brockton, and Fall River. Lynch also carried the central region of the state nestled in between the cities of Worcester and Springfield, as well as the area around the city of Lowell and the New Hampshire border territory. Markey was strong in virtually other part of the state, thus accounting for his lopsided victory.

When all of the expenditures are totaled, Markey will have exceeded the $5 million mark in spending; Lynch a little over $2 million.

On the Republican side, private equity investor and former US Navy veteran Gabriel Gomez convincingly won his primary, defeating former US Attorney Michael Sullivan and state Rep. Dan Winslow. Gomez scored 51 percent to Sullivan’s 36 percent and Winslow’s 13 percent. Just over 182,000 Republicans participated in their primary election. Late polling also forecast Gomez to be leading the GOP field, but sample sizes from the public polls were so small as not to be considered reliable.

The Gomez expenditure level is not clear at this point in time, but the other two Republican candidates spent less than $300,000 on their campaigns.

The special general, which is scheduled for June 25, appears to be Markey’s to lose. As we all know, Massachusetts is one of the  Continue reading >

Massachusetts Primary Today

Massachusetts

Bay State voters go to the polls today to choose nominees for Secretary of State John Kerry’s vacant US Senate seat. Since the Democrats are in an overwhelming political position in Massachusetts, it is apparent that the winner of their party contest tonight will become the next senator. The special general election is scheduled for June 25.

The man favored to win is Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) who was first elected to the House in 1976. If victorious, he will be the longest-serving House member ever to enter the Senate. All polls show Markey leading his congressional colleague, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8), posting double-digit margins in all surveys with the exception of some Lynch internal polls. It will be a major upset if Lynch manages to eke out a close win. In all likelihood, Markey wins tonight and again on June 25.

For the Republicans, three individuals are vying for a nomination that will immediately cast the standard bearer as the underdog position for the special general. Former US Attorney Michael Sullivan, state Rep. Dan Winslow, and businessman/Navy veteran Gabriel Gomez are the three candidates. Polling, though most of the available data features unacceptably low sample sizes, has shown both Sullivan and Gomez in the lead during the closing days.

Once nominees are secured tonight, the money battle will begin for the special general. Scott Brown’s upset victory in a 2010 Senate special election notwithstanding, proving that a Republican can win under certain circumstances, it is unlikely such a configuration will occur in this situation. In fact, it will even be a surprise if the national and state Republican Party leaders decide to wage a serious fight. Democrats will not allow their candidate to  Continue reading >

Markey Looking Strong; “Governor” Nelson?

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5)

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5)

As we turn into the home stretch for the special Democratic primary election to fill John Kerry’s vacated Senate seat in Massachusetts on Tuesday, Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) continues to appear well positioned for claiming his party’s nomination over fellow Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8).

A new Public Policy Polling brushfire survey (April 23-25; 563 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters) conducted for the League of Conservation Voters, an organization supporting Markey, continues to show the 36-year congressional veteran with a substantial lead. According to the PPP data, Markey posts a 50-36 percent margin over Lynch. The winner of the Democratic primary becomes the prohibitive favorite in the June 25 special general election.

Both candidates scored strong favorability ratings from the sampling universe. Markey registers 66:23 percent favorable to unfavorable; Lynch 50:32 percent.

Earlier in the week, the Western New England University Polling Institute released their survey (April 11-18; 480 registered Massachusetts voters; 270 Democratic primary voters) that showed  Continue reading >

NPR Poll: Lynch Now Close in Mass.

Rep. Lynch | Rep. Markey

The MassINC Polling Group (Feb. 11-13; 498 registered Massachusetts voters) surveying for WBUR Public Radio in Boston, the New England region’s largest NPR affiliate, reveals a major tightening of the special US Senate Democratic primary contest between Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) and Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5).

Contrasting with a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 29-30 of 404 registered Massachusetts Democratic voters that showed Markey crushing Lynch 52-19 percent, the new MassINC study projects the Boston congressman pulling to within just seven points of the front-runner, trailing only 31-38 percent.

The MassINC poll has some structural flaws, i.e. the Democratic primary sampling universe’s size is not disclosed but must fall within a range of 270 to 304 respondents, most likely around the 284 figure. This is very low for a statewide primary survey, thus making their final conclusions less reliable.

Still, the MassINC findings do seem more plausible than the previous PPP study that staked Markey to a 33-point lead, a spread that seemed excessive so early in the process. Based upon the MassINC results it  Continue reading >

Jumping the Gun in Massachusetts?

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5)

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5)

The special US Senate election to replace newly confirmed Secretary of State John Kerry has yet to occur, but already we have one candidate announcement pertaining to a secondary campaign and another conditional candidacy. Should Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) win the special statewide election on June 25, then an election to fill his vacant 5th District congressional position subsequently will be called.

State Rep. Carl Sciortino on Friday announced that he will run in the special election to replace Markey. Sciortino, who bills himself as a “leading progressive,” was elected to the state House in 2004 at the age of 25.
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Tagg — Not It!

The latest Massachusetts US Senate special election developments show that Republicans are continuing to experience political freezer burn in the harsh New England winter. The battle lines are quickly being drawn for the campaign that will yield a replacement for newly confirmed Secretary of State John Kerry.

Yesterday, Taggart “Tagg” Romney, son of former Bay State governor and 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, joined the group of prominent Republicans who will not become senatorial candidates. Following former Sen. Scott Brown’s decision not to run are ex-Gov. Bill Weld and former state senator and congressional candidate Richard Tisei, in addition to the younger Romney. Kerry Healey, who was Mitt Romney’s lieutenant governor, was said to be considering the race but she has taken no definitive steps to enter the contest. It is likely that the Republicans will be left with only a second-tier candidate.

There is news on the Democratic side, too. Middlesex County District Attorney Gerry Leone said he will not challenge Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) or Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) for the Democratic senatorial nomination. The move virtually assures that the two congressmen will be the only top Democrats in the race. Considering the situation on the Republican side, it further appears that the April 30 Democratic primary will ultimately determine the next senator. All early signs point to Rep. Markey being a huge favorite to win the party nomination, and now the seat.
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Scott Brown Won’t Run

PRIsm FLASH

Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) announced earlier today that he will not become a candidate in the Massachusetts special senatorial election to replace Secretary of State John Kerry.

It is clear from his comments that the prospect of running in 2013, and then again for the full term in 2014 if successful this year, on the heels of a bruising failed re-election campaign last year was too much for Brown and his family, though he continues to express a commitment toward public service. Many people believe he will run for the open governor’s position next year, instead.

Without Brown as the Republican standard bearer, the GOP must turn to alternative candidates. Former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey and ex-state Sen. Richard Tisei are most often mentioned as possibilities. Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) and Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) are competing for the Democratic nomination.

The special general election is scheduled for June 25. Party primaries will occur April 30. Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has appointed his former chief of staff, Mo Cowan, to fill the Kerry vacancy on an interim basis until a new Senator is elected. Cowan has already said he will not become a candidate.

Massachusetts Senate Race Shapes Up; Halvorson Hit by Bloombert; Chafee Down in R.I.

As predicted, now that the Massachusetts Senate special election is officially underway, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) jumped into the race. He released an announcement video yesterday declaring his statewide candidacy. From his tweets on Twitter, it is clear that he will attempt to draw a sharp contrast between he and fellow Democratic Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5), his opponent in the party primary to be decided on April 30.

Lynch will position himself as the outsider, versus Markey, who he portrays as the insider, establishment candidate. This might be a very difficult strategy to implement since Massachusetts voters normally support the most entrenched of incumbents.

Congressman Lynch represents downtown Boston and the South Boston area, going as far as Quincy and Brockton before swinging back up toward West Roxbury and Jamaica Plain. Markey, on the other hand, represents the area north of the city commonly known as “Bean Town,” including his home base in Malden and Melrose, before swinging southeast to Revere and then west toward Framingham. Markey will move to secure the left flank of the party base whereas Lynch will attempt to rally the moderates. Markey has a huge financial advantage, beginning the  Continue reading >

Senate Politics Already Hot

Massachusetts

Considering yesterday’s confirmation of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D) as Secretary of State, expect Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to name an interim replacement this week. He previously indicated that he intends to appoint a caretaker who will serve only until voters choose a new senator in the June 25 special general election and through the succeeding post-election certification period.

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) is the only announced special election candidate from either political party, but Boston Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) is expected to join the race before week’s end. Democratic Party leaders have worked hard to give Markey an unimpeded march to the nomination, but a Lynch candidacy means that there will be a significant Democratic primary to be decided in an April 30th election.

Little definitive action is yet occurring on the Republican side, but the party’s nominee likely will be either former Sen. Scott Brown, ex-Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, or former state senator and 6th District congressional candidate Richard Tisei. Ex-Gov. Bill Weld is unlikely to enter the contest. Should Brown decide to run he will almost assuredly have an unopposed primary, thus providing him an opportunity to build Continue reading >

Big Developments in the Massachusetts Senate Special Election

Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown

Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown

News is occurring rapidly in the replacement special election for Secretary of State-designee John Kerry’s Massachusetts Senate seat.

First, despite Kerry not yet being confirmed, Gov. Deval Patrick and Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin have announced the special election schedule. The party primaries will be held April 30, with the special general vote occurring on June 25. A plurality of the vote wins the respective Democratic and Republican nominations.

Secondly, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) is not denying a Boston Globe report that he will enter the special election soon to challenge Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) in the Democratic primary. The road will be a Continue reading >

Massachusetts Senate Campaign Action

Senate campaign action already is underway in Massachusetts even before there an official vacancy has appeared. Democrats are making early moves to avoid a divisive party split that could open the door for outgoing Republican Sen. Scott Brown.

Even before Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) begins his confirmation process as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s replacement, Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5), a 36-year veteran of the House, became the first individual to officially declare himself as a candidate in the upcoming Senate special election.

Under Massachusetts law, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will select Kerry’s successor once the senator officially resigns. A special election will then be scheduled for a time in the weeks succeeding the appointment. Assuming the Kerry confirmation proceeds normally, the special statewide replacement vote likely will be held sometime in June. The special election winner will serve the balance of Kerry’s term, which terminates at the beginning of 2015. Therefore, in order for the next senator to earn a full six-year term, he or she must run in the 2013 special election, and then again in the 2014 regular election.

After Markey’s Dec. 27 announcement, Sen. Kerry himself issued a public statement officially endorsing the congressman as his successor. Vicky Kennedy, the late Sen. Ted Continue reading>

Sen. Scott Brown Faring Well in Massachusetts

Public Policy Polling was in the field again with another small-sample poll during the past few days, this time surveying potential match-ups against Massachusetts freshman Sen. Scott Brown (R). As you will remember, Brown, then a state Senator, won the January 2010 special election to fill the late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s unexpired final term in office. The seat is now in-cycle, so Brown will be running for his first full term.

The PPP poll sampled 500 Massachusetts voters over the Nov. 29-Dec. 1 period and found Brown to be beating every potential Democratic opponent, including Gov. Deval Patrick who was just re-elected to a second term last month. The new Senator’s job approval is a very respectable 53:29% positive to negative.

When paired with Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA-8), a man widely believed to soon become an official Senatorial candidate, Brown posts a strong 52-36% lead. The two Democrats who poll the best are Gov. Patrick and Vicki Kennedy, the late Senator’s widow. Brown leads both by seven points. His advantage is 49-42% against Patrick and 48-41% when opposing Mrs. Kennedy. Against lesser known potential opponents, Brown leads Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-9) 49-30% and enjoys a 49-39% advantage over veteran Congressman Ed Markey (D-MA-7).

In looking at the 10 Republican seats to be contested nationally in the 2012 election cycle, the Massachusetts campaign is commonly viewed to be at the forefront of the GOP vulnerability index. With President Obama leading the top of the ticket in 2012, the turnout model in the heavily Democratic state likely will be a problem for Brown. If these strong early polling numbers keep appearing, the new maverick Senator will be well-positioned to wage a strong fight to keep the seat he so impressively won early this year.