Tag Archives: Rep. Scott Tipton

Eight Men Out

By Jim Ellis

Poster for the movie, “Eight Men Out”

Aug. 20, 2020 — The 1988 movie “Eight Men Out” about the 1919 baseball World Series carries a title that also aptly describes the 2020 congressional primary season. At this early point in the voting cycle, already eight US House members have been denied re-nomination, which will oust them from office — a large number when comparing to typical campaign years.

It’s worth noting these results because the incumbent defeats are geographically widespread and not confined to one party. Of the eight, five are Republicans, three are Democrats, and each come from different states.

Looking at the eight campaigns, however, only two reasons largely explain the incumbent losses within the respective intra-party elections: ideology and ethics.

Florida Freshman Rep. Ross Spano (R-Dover) from his Lakeland-anchored district this past Tuesday is the latest to lose. The others are, chronologically from the beginning: Reps. Dan Lipinski (D-IL), Steve King (R-IA), Denver Riggleman (R-VA), Eliot Engel (D-NY), Scott Tipton (R-CO), Steve Watkins (R-KS), Lacy Clay (D-MO), and Spano.

In each case, the Democratic losses are ideologically driven. In Illinois, New York, and Missouri, veteran Democrats lost their seats to challengers from the far left, all backed by the Justice Democrats PAC that is loosely associated with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The insurgent campaign strategy in each case was to cast the incumbent as not being sufficiently progressive in addition to more specific attacks.

In Illinois back in March, media consultant Marie Newman returned to again challenge Rep. Lipinski after losing to him 51-49 percent in the 2018 Democratic primary. Rep. Lipinski, an eight-term Chicago suburban congressional veteran whose father held the seat for 22 years before him, had established a moderate record — yet even moving left for the current term couldn’t stop the coming trend. Turnout increased 16 percent when compared to the 2018 primary, and Newman flipped a 49-51 percent loss into a 47-45 percent victory.

Eliot Engel represented the Bronx in Congress for what will be 32 years after serving for 12 years in the New York State Assembly. Aided by Engel campaign mistakes, middle school principal Jamaal Bowman swept to victory with strong assistance from the Justice Democrats. The key themes here were Engel losing touch with his constituents and being out of step with today’s Democratic Party.

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Colorado Republican Primary Shock:
Rep. Tipton Denied Renomination

By Jim Ellis

July 1, 2020 — While the pre-election coverage to yesterday’s Colorado primary focused on how former governor and presidential candidate John Hickenlooper would fare in the Democratic Senate primary – he would win 60-40 percent, which was certainly well below what original projections forecast – the real story came in the state’s Western Slope congressional district.

Lauren Boebert (R), a 2nd Amendment activist and local restaurant owner, soundly denied Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) re-nomination in the Republican congressional primary.

There, five-term veteran Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) was soundly denied re-nomination by 2nd Amendment activist and local restaurant owner Lauren Boebert in the Republican congressional primary. When the final votes are counted, Boebert will break 54 percent of the vote of what looks to be about 120,000 cast votes, more than double the amount of the last GOP primary held here in 2016.

Boebert will spend well under $200,000 for her effort; long known as a local conservative activist, she made her money count with a pointed message to Republican primary voters. Her strategy was to create a negative image of Rep. Tipton for “siding with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and her squad” in relation to bailing out the city of Boulder, which is not in his 3rd District, how he “teamed with Nancy Pelosi to give amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants,” and “forced taxpayers to pay $1 billion for their housing.”

The race was relatively close in every place except Mesa County, which houses the district’s second largest city, Grand Junction. The area allowed her to build approximately 8,500 of her 9,600 vote spread against the incumbent, and defeating him despite Tipton carrying 19 of the district’s 29 counties. Totals are not complete due to the state’s all-mail voting system, but there is no doubt that Boebert has won.

The Democratic nominee, by virtue of a 61 percent win in her primary, is 2018 nominee Daine Mitsch Bush, who was planning for a re-match with Rep. Tipton. Now, she will have to reverse course to compete against a firebrand conservative who wears a firearm strapped to her right leg and owns a restaurant on I-70 called “The Shooters Grill.” This new open seat will be competitive, and colorful, in the fall.
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Democracy Corps: Four-State Senate Data

Nov. 12, 2015 — The Democracy Corps, a liberal political research group founded and run by James Carville and national Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, just released their new study on four pivotal Senate races. The organization, Women’s Voices Women Votes Action Fund is a co-sponsor of this particular survey. Though the analysis spin was pro-Democratic Party for the upcoming election, the actual numbers suggest something that’s not quite as conclusive.

The purpose of the four state poll — conducted during the Oct. 24-28 period of 400 likely voters in each domain — Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin — was to demonstrate the power of what they are terming the “RAE Coalition” (defined as the progressive “Rising American Electorate”). The demographic groups comprising this subset are unmarried women, people of color, and millennials (those born in the early 80s to the early 2000s). The premise is that this coalition now claims a majority of people in each of these states. The Democrats’ problem is that the aforementioned demographic segments have low voter participation rates.

Interestingly, the Democracy Corps poll, as it relates to ballot questions for each tested state, actually produced better Republican numbers than most other recent polls. This is particularly true in Ohio and Colorado.

The pollsters, Greenberg Rosner Quinlan Research, developed a two-way race in each state and, in two instances (Colorado and Florida), picking potential candidates who may, or may not, be on a general election statewide ballot.

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Colorado Senate Candidate Field Narrows Significantly By One

June 4, 2015 — Sen. Michael Bennet (D) has cleared his first major re-election obstacle. Sitting in realistically what could be one of two offensive Republican targets – the Nevada open seat being the other – Bennet will not have to face the man largely viewed as his most difficult potential opponent.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) was heavily recruiting four-term Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO-6). He rose to the top of their prospective candidate list after winning two costly and difficult re-election campaigns in a Denver suburban court-drawn district basically designed to elect a Democrat. On Tuesday, Coffman confirmed that he will not challenge Sen. Bennet next year, choosing to seek re-election.

In a way, the Coffman decision is somewhat curious because it is arguable that his re-election campaign under a presidential turnout model could be just as difficult as running statewide. In his last two campaigns, Coffman spent a combined $8.5 million to win 48 and 52 percent victories.
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Cochran Defies Pollsters; Lankford, Clawson, Rangel Win

Mississippi

Defying all pollsters’ projections, veteran Sen. Thad Cochran rebounded from his under-performance in the June 3 primary election to win the Mississippi run-off campaign. State Sen. Chris McDaniel came within one-half percent of claiming the Republican nomination in the primary vote, but failed to capitalize on his early momentum.

Virtually all published polling projected the 42-year congressional veteran to be falling significantly behind his Tea Party-backed Republican challenger. Yet, the actual results gave the incumbent a 51-49 percent victory, a margin of 6,373 votes out of the 372,000-plus ballots cast, some 60,000 more than were recorded in the primary. Therefore, the secondary election campaign defied not only the pollsters who almost unanimously predicted a McDaniel win going away, but also voter history that virtually always sees an incumbent lose a run-off election when forced into one. Additionally, this run-off produced more  Continue reading >