Tag Archives: Rep. Mark Amodei

Tarkanian to Challenge Heller

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 10, 2017 — Perennial Nevada candidate Danny Tarkanian yesterday announced a US Senate Republican primary challenge to incumbent Dean Heller, creating more chaos in what is the Democrats’ best national conversion opportunity for next year.

Tarkanian released an announcement statement early Tuesday morning declaring himself a candidate. “I am running for United States Senate because Nevada deserves a senator who will keep his word and vote in Washington DC the same way he campaigns here in Nevada,” he wrote, presumably referencing Sen. Heller’s statements about the failed Republican healthcare bill.

But, the senator did vote in favor of the rule bringing the bill for a vote and, in the end, supported what was termed the “skinny repeal” of Obamacare. Though he expressed concern about the bill, Sen. Heller did not ultimately join Republican Sens. John McCain (AZ), Lisa Murkowski (AK), and Susan Collins (ME) who formally opposed the legislation.

Published a day before the Tarkanian announcement was a Strategic National political survey (Aug. 1-2; 500 likely Nevada Republican primary voters) that found Tarkanian trailing the senator only 34-38 percent in a proposed GOP primary pairing. Interestingly, the same poll showed 2nd District Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City/Reno), who holds Sen. Heller’s former congressional seat, actually leading the incumbent 27-26 percent among the likely Republican primary voters tested. There is no indication that Amodei is considering entering the Senate race, however.

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Renacci to Run in Ohio;
Angle in Nevada

By Jim Ellis

March 23, 2017 — The open Republican gubernatorial primary to succeed term-limited Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) is producing an all-star political lineup. This week, another prominent GOP politico entered the impending contest, making the May 2018 primary a major political event.

Joining Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor and attorney general and former US Sen. Mike DeWine as a gubernatorial candidate is four-term US Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth). The congressman officially announced that he will enter the statewide campaign, a move that had been speculated upon for months. It is further expected that Secretary of State Jon Husted will also soon declare his gubernatorial candidacy.

Renacci was first elected to the House in the 2010 Republican wave. He defeated then-freshman Rep. John Boccieri (D) by 11 percentage points. Two years earlier, Boccieri had converted the seat for the Democrats after 36-year veteran Congressman Ralph Regula (R-Canton) retired.

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Reid Endorses Successors;
Duckworth to Run

March 31, 2015 — Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s (D) surprise retirement announcement on Friday quickly yielded another unexpected pair of political moves. After saying he wouldn’t run next year, Reid quickly expressed support for former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto as his successor. This, even before Cortez Masto issued a statement of candidacy.

Just a day later, he and Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) then both announced their support for Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to succeed Reed as the party leader. It was believed that he and Durbin would battle each other for the leadership post, but their action suggests a smooth transition will presumably occur.

Reid’s decision to take a stand in the Democratic primary is within character because he often involves himself in pre-primary Senate races around the country. But, it’s unusual even for him to do so before the candidate is in the race.

This being said, presumably it has been worked out in Democratic circles well behind the scenes that Cortez Masto is the preferred candidate. Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV-1), however, doesn’t appear part of this deal since she describes herself as “seriously considering” a bid for the Senate. Former Secretary of State Ross Miller (D), who lost the race for attorney general last November to Republican Adam Laxalt, is yet another potential Democratic candidate.
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NYT: Harry Reid to Retire

The New York Times is running a major story today saying that Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has made the decision not to seek re-election and will soon announce his course of action.

Reid had been vociferously denying the many retirement rumors that were circulating earlier in the year, and was actively raising funds and taking steps to hire a campaign team. Now, the Times says he is reversing course.

Reid’s departure will naturally change the Senate in a dramatic way, but the decision has major political ramifications, as well. Republicans will be much more competitive in an open seat situation in Nevada, and will now likely see stronger candidates come forward.

Previously, Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) and representatives Joe Heck (R-NV-3) and Mark Amodei (R-NV-2) have all either said or indicated that they would not challenge Reid in 2016. In an open seat situation, this could all change.

The Reid retirement will fundamentally change the 2016 political picture.

This is a developing story.

Nevada Numbers – Both Presidential and Senate Races Tested

MARCH 3, 2015 — Gravis Marketing conducted a poll of the Nevada electorate (Feb. 21-22; 955 registered Nevada voters; 438 likely Republican Nevada Caucus attenders; 324 likely Democratic Nevada Caucus attenders; 193 likely general election voters) in order to test both party nomination contests, and gauge how Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D) shapes up for re-election.

For Republicans, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) is again pacing the field, this time with 27 percent of the vote according to the Gravis study. Following in second place, eight percentage points behind, is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 19 percent.

All other candidates posted in single digits. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was third with eight percent; Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) had the most disappointing performance in recording just three percent; and retired Maryland neurosurgeon Ben Carson was not included on the ballot test questionnaire.
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2016 Match-Ups … Already!

Now that the 2014 election is finally ending, speculation begins to build around the next in-cycle group of seats.

With Gov. Sean Parnell (R) conceding defeat to Independent Bill Walker in Alaska and the two outstanding California congressional races likely soon ending in razor-thin wins for representatives Ami Bera (D-CA-7) and Jim Costa (D-CA-16), the 2014 cycle will conclude on Dec. 6 when the Louisiana run-offs are decided. Then, we can look forward to almost non-stop coverage of the impending presidential race in addition to frequent US Senate analyses.

Since Republicans will have a majority of either 53 or 54 seats depending upon whether Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) or Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA-6) wins the Louisiana campaign, the GOP will likely be forced to defend 24 of 34 states up for election in two years. Therefore, Democrats will have ample opportunity to reclaim their lost advantage, which is the storyline we can expect to hear from the major media outlets.

With this backdrop, some senators are already drawing speculation about potential opponents. Illinois is likely at the top of the Democrats’ target list since the state votes heavily with their party, particularly in presidential years. Sen. Mark Kirk (R) started the ball rolling early this week by stating unequivocally that he intends to seek Continue reading >

Landrieu, McSally Still Seek Final Results; Sights Already Set on Reid for 2016; Leadership Elections Underway

Landrieu: Kicking into high gear for the Louisiana Senate run-off election, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is already badly trailing in a new Magellan Strategies poll (Nov. 12; 1,197 registered Louisiana voters via automated response). The survey, conducted for Rep. Bill Cassidy’s (R-LA-6) statewide campaign, finds the congressman leading the endangered senator by a huge 57-41 percent clip.

The Landrieu campaign scoffs at the automated nature of the poll, claiming the methodology is not as accurate as live phoning. While such a premise is certainly the prevailing train of thought among political professionals, the actual reliability numbers suggest something far different: that the automated approach is improving by the day and can be just as accurate as the live “phoner” approach. If that’s so in this case, then Sen. Landrieu is likely headed toward defeat on Dec. 6.

If Cassidy wins, the Senate party division will be 54R-46D, a total gain of nine seats for the Republicans in the 2014 election.

McSally: As predicted yesterday, the final count in the 2nd District of Arizona did yield at least a preliminary victory for challenger Continue reading >