Tag Archives: Rep. Gregg Harper

New Year House Preview

US-House-of-Representatives-balance-of-power-January-2018By Jim Ellis

Jan. 8, 2018 — Continuing our federal race outlook to set the political stage in this first week of the actual midterm election year, we now turn to the House races.

Republicans have a 24-seat margin (counting their three vacant seats that will go to special election in the early part of this year: PA-18, AZ-8, and OH-12), and though Democrats and most in the media claim that a new majority is just around the corner, a race-by-race House analysis shows that the road to converting the majority remains difficult to attain. This is so for several key reasons, not the least of which is the typical House incumbent retention factor. In 2016 the rate hit 97 percent (377 victories for the 389 House members who ran for re-election).

Additionally, even though President Trump’s job approval rating is historically low, we must remember that he won the 2016 national election with a personal approval index no higher than his present positive to negative ratios. And, even though congressional approval was well below 20 percent for the entire 2016 election year, Republicans lost only six House seats from their previous modern era record majority of 247 that was attained in the 2014 election.

When we have seen major seat changes occur in past elections, the winning party has done well in converting open seats. For the fourth election cycle in a row, the 2018 House cycle features an above average quantity of incumbent-less US House campaigns – the current number is 45, counting the two latest announced retirees, Reps. Bill Shuster (R-PA) and Gregg Harper (R-MS).

Continue reading

Two Ex-Congressmen Returning in Mississippi

Candidate filing closed in Mississippi on Saturday and two former US congressmen, both defeated for re-election in 2010, will return to appear on the federal ballot again this year.

In a move that had been speculated upon for several weeks, former 1st District Rep. Travis Childers, defeated 55-41 percent by current Rep. Alan Nunnelee (R) in 2010, officially entered the US Senate race. Childers won an upset victory in a 2008 1st District (Tupelo; Columbus; Memphis suburbs) special election after then-Rep. Roger Wicker (R) was appointed to the Senate. He was re-elected to a full term six months later, serving a total of two and one-half years in the House.

But former Rep. Gene Taylor’s political comeback is more surprising. The former congressman won a special election back in 1989 after Republican incumbent Larkin Smith died in a plane crash, and then served 21 consecutive years as a Democrat in a deep red conservative district before losing  Continue reading >