Tag Archives: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick

Retired Army Pilot Returns for
Re-Match in PA-1; Archuleta to Retire?; Missouri Gov. Race; Denver, Houston Mayoral Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 10, 2023

House

Retired Army pilot Ashley Ehasz (D)

PA-1: Nominee Returning — Retired Army pilot Ashley Ehasz (D), who fell last November to four-term Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) by a 55-45 percent count, will return for a re-match, she announced late last week. The 10-point spread was the congressman’s strongest performance since he first began running for the seat in 2016.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the Philadelphia suburban district as EVEN. It is likely Democrats will want to find a stronger 2024 candidate, but Ehasz’s presence in the race suggests a primary contest will result if the party leadership decides to recruit a different contender.

CA-31: Preparing for Retirement? — California state Sen. Bob Archuleta (D-Norwalk) filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission last week. This is a curious move since veteran Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) has not announced that she is retiring. The act of filing a federal committee is not necessarily an official declaration of candidacy, but does allow the raising of federal funds.

Rep. Napolitano will be 87 years old at the time of the next election and is clearly a retirement possibility. Sen. Archuleta is now officially waiting in the wings. It is unlikely that he will launch a primary challenge against the incumbent since he would be risking his state Senate seat to do so. The 31st Congressional District is heavily Hispanic and Democratic, so any primary challenge will likely result in a double Democratic general election campaign under California’s all-party jungle primary system.

Governor

Missouri: Secretary of State Enters Governor Race — As expected, the “Show Me” state’s Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R), the son of former Missouri senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft (R), announced late last week that he will enter the open 2024 governor’s race. Ashcroft was first elected to his statewide post in 2016, and re-elected in 2020. He lost his first race, however, a St. Louis-area state Senate campaign in 2014.

Gov. Mike Parson (R), who assumed the governorship in June of 2018 after then-Gov. Eric Greitens (R) was forced to resign and then was elected to a full term in 2020, is ineligible to seek a second full term.

Already in the open Republican primary are Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-St. Charles County), thus guaranteeing a nomination fight. No Democrat has yet declared his or her candidacy. Republicans will be favored to hold the position in the general election.

Cities

Denver Mayor: Runoff Set — Last Tuesday’s open mayoral primary in Denver that featured 16 candidates attempting to succeed retiring Mayor Michael Hancock (D), who is ineligible to run for a third term, has now been officially decided. The two candidates advancing to the November runoff election are both Democrats.

The official general election contenders will be former state senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate Mike Johnston and ex-Denver Chamber of Commerce CEO and former mayoral chief of staff Kelly Brough. Brough served as then-Mayor John Hickenlooper’s top aide. Hickenlooper is now, of course, Colorado’s current junior US senator and a former governor and presidential candidate. A competitive general election is expected.

Houston Mayor: New Candidate Emerging — Former Houston mayoral candidate Tony Buzbee, who lost the 2019 runoff to Mayor Sylvester Turner, 55-45 percent after spending $12 million of his own money, may enter the 2023 campaign. Buzbee was quoted as saying he could spend $15-50 million more of his own money to win the election. His stated belief is that he is the only candidate who could defeat US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who is now an official mayoral contender.

Candidate filing does not conclude until August, so this open race still has much time to solidify. Mayor Turner is ineligible to seek a third term and is openly considering entering the 2024 Senate race against incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

Candidate Filings Completed in Battleground State of Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 21, 2020 — While the Democratic presidential debate of a couple nights ago is getting most of the political news coverage, Democrats and Republicans completed their filings to run for office in one of the country’s major political battlegrounds, the Keystone State of Pennsylvania.

While the state will be one of the most important in the presidential race, it also yields a significant political playing field for the House of Representatives. There is no Senate or gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania this year.

From their 18 House districts, we see only three incumbents drawing primary opposition, and only one of the intra-party challengers appears credible. The state primary is April 28.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) has one primary challenger, investment company executive Andrew Meehan, but he had raised only $35,000 through the end of last year. It is assumed that Meehan has personal wealth, but whether or not he invests in his own long-shot campaign is as yet unknown.

Freshman Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Swarthmore) draws Democratic opposition from businessman Lou Lanni, but he does not appear politically credible. Raising only $8,000 through the end of last year, Lanni is not running a competitive campaign. With little to fear from Republicans in this district, Rep. Scanlon appears to have an easy run for her first re-election.

The most interesting primary likely lies in Pittsburgh. Veteran Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pittsburgh) faces two Democratic opponents, one of whom looks credible. While pastor Janis Brooks does not appear to be a competitive primary contender, attorney Gerald Dickinson, on the other hand, had already raised $173,000 at the end of the year, all from individual contributors. It is still very doubtful that Rep. Doyle will be denied re-nomination, but this is the one primary campaign to watch for a developing challenge.

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Pennsylvania Files – Part I

By Jim Ellis

New Pennsylvania Congressional Map | Source: Pennsylvania State Supreme Court

March 26, 2018 — After the three-judge federal panel and the US Supreme Court both rejected Republican legal appeals to overturn the new state Supreme Court-imposed congressional map, candidates submitted their official filing documents to run in the new districts.

We now have an idea as to where the key Pennsylvania political battles will occur, and who some of the key players will be. Today we take a look at the first nine districts. Tomorrow, we’ll review CDs 10-18. The party primaries are scheduled for May 15.

District 1 – Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown)

Freshman Rep. Fitzpatrick faces attorney Dean Malik in the Republican primary. Three Democrats filed, including Scott Wallace, grandson of WWII era Vice President Henry Wallace (D). Attorney Rachel Reddick and non-profit organization executive Steven Bacher round out the Democratic field. The new 1st is highly competitive, and this race could well evolve in to a toss-up campaign.

District 2 – Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia)

Originally designed as an open seat, or the place where retiring Rep. Bob Brady (D-Philadelphia) may have run, the new 2nd will now go to two-term Rep. Brendan Boyle who formerly represented a district anchored in Montgomery County. The new 2nd contains the eastern part of Philadelphia and is a safely Democratic seat. Radio talk show host Michele Lawrence is challenging Boyle in the Democratic primary, and Republican David Torres will be his general election opposition. Rep. Boyle will have little trouble in securing this new district.

District 3 – Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia)

This is a heavily African American Democratic seat that freshman Rep. Dwight Evans will have little trouble holding. He has only minor opposition in both the Democratic primary and the general election.

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Meehan to Go

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 29, 2018 — The alleged sexual harassment situation involving four-term Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Chadds Ford) culminated with his retirement announcement, last week.

Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Chadds Ford)

In a letter to Speaker Paul Ryan and his local Republican Party chairman, Meehan wrote that he will not be a candidate for a fifth term in November. But, his personal situation may not be the only reason that voluntarily leaving Congress makes sense for him.

As we’ve discussed on several occasions, the Pennsylvania state Supreme Court invalidated the state’s congressional map earlier this week on grounds that the empowered Republican political apparatus took partisanship too far in constructing the 2011 plan. The GOP will try to flip this case into federal jurisdiction — the US Supreme Court has never ruled a map invalid because of political gerrymandering, and are actively considering several such cases during the current term — but the party’s prospects of doing so are likely poor.

If the state high court’s ruling stands, the legislature and governor will be forced to present a new map to the Justices by Feb. 15 in order to keep pace with the current election calendar. The short deadline will likely avoid compelling the court to delay the state’s March 6 candidate filing deadline and May 15 primary election.

Now with a Democrat governor in office, and not the Republican that signed this map into law, it is highly probable that a veto will occur over the next GOP iteration. If so, then the court will appoint a special master to draw the new map.

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Pennsylvania’s Importance

Pennsylvania Congressional Districts Map (click on image to enlarge to see detail)

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 6, 2017 — In every election, it seems one or two states become that cycle’s political focal point and we can already identify which places might serve in such a role for 2018. Along with California for House races, political fortunes in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania could well influence national Senate and House outcomes, while strongly contributing to the national redistricting outlook when the state’s competitive governor’s race is ultimately decided.

Gov. Tom Wolf (D) seeks re-election with improving favorability ratings and will be in a targeted 2018 campaign. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) is running for a third term and drawing considerable opposition, particularly from US Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton). US House competition is projected for as many as 11 of the state’s 18 congressional districts, some of which coming in primaries, and a live political gerrymandering lawsuit before the state court system could potentially radically change Pennsylvania’s redistricting maps prior to the next election. Therefore, we see a state teeming with political activity in each of its four corners.

Gov. Wolf came from nowhere in 2014 as a successful York business owner to capture the Democratic nomination, and then proved to become the only member of his party to unseat a Republican governor in what was otherwise a Republican wave election year. He will face his own highly competitive re-election battle next year, as the GOP must re-capture this statehouse to protect its congressional and state legislative gains as a new redistricting cycle will begin during this next governor’s term.

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