Tag Archives: Quinnipiac University

New Virginia Polling

By Jim Ellis

June 26, 2017 — Despite the vast majority of survey research firms again failing to predict the correct outcome for a recent political campaign — this time the GA-6 special election — we do have new data to analyze for the Virginia governor’s race.

While it is too early to tell whether the pollsters are correctly projecting the turnout model and whether they are using the proper formula to pull a representative sample, it is still worthwhile to look at all the published polls in order to establish a moving trend.

As was reported immediately after the Virginia primary concluded, Harper Polling went into the field the day after Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie won their respective party nominations for governor. According to their results (June 14-16; 500 registered Virginia voters), both Northam and Gillespie were tied at 46 percent. The conclusion was even a bit better for Gillespie because within the eight percent group who reported themselves as undecided, 19 percent indicated a preference for the Republican, while seven percent said they were leaning toward Northam, the new Democratic candidate.

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New Jersey Primary Today

By Jim Ellis

June 6, 2017 — The 2017-18 election cycle’s first regular primary is occuring today as New Jersey voters head to the polls to choose major party nominees in the governor’s race. This campaign will lead to replacing term-limited state chief executive and former Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie.

We can expect a low turnout, because it appears a foregone conclusion that Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno and former US Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy will easily win the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively.

Polls have been few and far between, and the three surveys that were released in May show strong and solid margins for both Guadagno and Murphy. The most recent study, from Stockton University (May 16-23; 389 likely New Jersey GOP primary voters) finds Guadagno with a 37-18 percent advantage over Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and three others who don’t even top four percent support. Earlier in the month, Quinnipiac University April 26-May 1; 331 likely New Jersey GOP primary voters) surveyed the state and found Guadagno up in similar fashion: 23-12 percent over Ciattarelli with no other candidate breaking five percent.

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Viginia Race Becoming More Interesting

By Jim Ellis

March 30, 2017 — A new poll continues to show that former Virginia US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) is pulling even with Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam in the Democratic gubernatorial primary scheduled for mid-June. Until Perriello became a late entry into the statewide campaign, Northam looked to have an easy ride to the party nomination.

Now, the latest Christopher Newport University survey (March 16-26; 831 registered Virginia voters) finds Northam and Perriello tied at 26 percent preference less than three months before the June 13th statewide primary election.

The March poll is the second that the university has commissioned. Their first, in mid to late January (Jan. 15-28; 1,002 registered Virginia voters; 464 self-identified Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic), found Northam holding an 11-point lead over the former congressman but with 59 percent of the primary electorate undecided.

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Gillespie vs. Northam: New Polling

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 17, 2017 — It’s hard to believe, but already we are not particularly far from a series of new election campaigns taking center stage. In addition to the five special congressional elections, the significant regular 2017 contests include the governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia, along with the New York City mayor’s race.

At the end of last week, New Jersey Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) filed paperwork to run for governor, as expected, but is rather strangely refusing to confirm that she will actually become a candidate. Rumors are swirling that Hillary Clinton is considering challenging Democratic New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, but little realistic chance exists that such a race will materialize.

Late this week, polling surfaced in the Virginia governor’s race, a contest that may well become the flagship campaign on the 2017 political calendar. A group called Conservatives for Clean Energy contracted with reliable Republican pollster Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies (POS) to survey the candidates vying for the Commonwealth’s top position.

Though the poll was conducted in December (Dec. 11-13; 500 likely Virginia voters), the results are similar to those found in a corresponding Quinnipiac University survey (Dec. 6-11; 1,098 registered Virginia voters). Normally, such outdated studies would provide us very little usable data, but with the Christmas holidays occupying a great deal of the time between the polling and release dates, the data has remained salient because little has changed politically in the intervening time period.

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Still Not Over

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 7, 2016 — Though the Granite State of New Hampshire possesses only four electoral votes, it can potentially end as the most critical entity in Tuesday’s presidential election, at least according to Donald Trump’s recent comments. After Hillary Clinton had been maintaining a discernible lead here since the national conventions concluded, four new polls are now projecting New Hampshire going back into the toss-up range.

If Trump is to make a final run at national victory, he must first lock down all 23 states that normally vote Republican in a presidential contest. With his standing improving in Utah and Arizona, this initial objective appears within his grasp. After securing the base, he must win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and then one more state. Therefore, his victory path is still difficult to attain.

The new American Research Group (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 600 likely New Hampshire voters) and WBUR-MassINC study (Oct. 29-Nov. 1; 500 likely New Hampshire voters) studies provide Trump with some surprisingly good Granite State news. New Hampshire-based ARG sees a 48-43-4-1 percent Trump advantage over Clinton, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, while MassINC projects the Republican taking a 40-39-10-3 percent lead as Johnson actually touches double digits. The Boston Globe/Suffolk University data (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 500 NH likely voters) finds the two tied at 42 percent apiece. The UMass Lowell poll (Oct. 28-Nov. 2; 695 likely New Hampshire voters) also sees a 42-42-5-2 percent tie. All of this portends a major swing in Trump’s favor.

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A Centennial Swing

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 28, 2016 — Even before the first presidential debate was complete, we began seeing some political movement particularly in one critical battleground state.

In the 21st Century, the states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada have been traditionally regarded as the swing battleground pool in the presidential race. In the last two elections, all but North Carolina voted Democratic. Such a pattern was continuing to take hold in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada, though the 2013-14 elections did show Republican gain. Most of this particular shift, however, was attributable to voter turnout patterns instead of any ideological shift toward the GOP.

Now in the presidential general election, the political tide is beginning to turn in several of these states. Colorado, a place that had clearly been trending Democratic in the previous few elections and appeared poised to easily vote for Hillary Clinton earlier in the cycle is now exhibiting signs that Donald Trump is at least in position to contend for the Centennial State’s nine electoral votes.

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New State Data

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 26, 2016 — While the national polls continue to yield a basic tie between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the state totals are the real determining factor and we have significant new data from key targets this week.

To re-cap, if the election were today it appears Clinton would win possibly with as few as 272 Electoral Votes as compared to Trump’s 266. The latter’s coalition would include the states of Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada along with the 2nd Congressional District of Maine all converting from the 2012 electoral map. Most polls suggest that Trump is currently leading or has a strong chance of winning these entities on Election Day.

Florida, arguably the most important swing state, reported two very different polls this past week. The latest, from Suffolk University (Sept. 19-21; 500 likely Florida voters), finds Trump leading by a single point, 44-43 percent. But, earlier in the week, Florida’s St. Leo University released a survey (Sept. 10-15; 502 Florida adults) that projects Clinton holding a significant 49-44 percent Sunshine State advantage.

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Senate: Critical States, Critical Polls

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 13, 2016 — New polls were just released in states that will define which party controls the Senate in the next Congress.

Five polls, four from Quinnipiac University, are now in the public domain from Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If these latest polls prove correct, the Senate majority would be decided in Nevada and New Hampshire, two toss-up states that were not included in the released data.

Florida

The first Q-Poll gives further evidence that Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is expanding his slight lead over Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter). According to the data from Quinnipiac’s September Florida statewide poll (Aug. 31-Sept. 7; 601 likely Florida voters), Sen. Rubio has extended beyond the polling margin of error and now records a 50-43 percent advantage.

Any problem he had with Republicans based upon his poor Florida performance against Donald Trump in the March 15 presidential primary appears to be resolved. This Q-Poll finds him attracting 89 percent of Republicans as opposed to losing just six percent of them. This brings him to partisan parity with Rep. Murphy, who captures the Democratic vote with a similar 91-7 percent. Rubio is doing very well among Independents, taking this group 53-37 percent.

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The States Tighten

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 12, 2016 — As the national popular vote pulls into a virtual dead heat, polls released yesterday in the critical swing states suggest that a similar pattern is occurring in the individual voting entities, too.

To re-cap the Electoral College map, in order to win the national campaign Donald Trump must keep the 24 states Mitt Romney claimed in 2012, including key swing North Carolina, and then win Florida and Ohio. President Obama won both of these latter states in each of his national campaigns. For her victory configuration, Hillary Clinton need only preserve 80 percent of the states that Obama won twice.

Once Trump secures the Romney coalition plus Florida and Ohio, he then must take at least one more state totaling more than 16 Electoral Votes, to reach the minimum victory threshold of 270 Electoral Votes. Adding Pennsylvania, for example, would award Trump the presidency.

Quinnipiac University publicized four state polls yesterday, covering each key swing entity. In Florida and Ohio, the Q-Poll finds Trump returning to parity with Hillary Clinton. He trails in North Carolina, however. Though still behind in Pennsylvania, the research projects him pulling back to within five points of her and halving the deficit he faced in the August Pennsylvania Quinnipiac survey.

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Trump’s Troubling Florida Poll

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 25, 2016 — The St. Leo University Polling Institute dropped a shock poll on the Donald Trump campaign a couple days ago, but the numbers appear inconsistent when comparing other available data.

The Florida poll finds Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by a whopping 52-38 percent margin when counting those individuals leaning to both candidates. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson receives eight percent, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein attracts just over two percent support. Without leaners, Clinton’s margin is 48-34-6-2 percent consecutively over Trump, Johnson, and Stein. But, these numbers are far from what other pollsters are finding within the Sunshine State.

The St. Leo survey (Aug. 14-18; 1,500 Florida adults, 1,380 likely Florida voters), conducted online “ … uses cutting-edge online methodology … [that draws a] sample from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups.” The quoted passage comes from the institute’s official methodology explanation. St. Leo is a 16,000-plus student Catholic liberal arts university located 35 miles northeast of Tampa that was originally established in 1889, and re-established in 1959. Their Polling Institute was initiated in December of 2013.

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Senate Trends

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 15, 2016 — A plethora of new swing state Senate polls have been conducted and already released in August, and both parties are getting some good news in specific races.

The two states ripe for electing a senator from a different party are Illinois and Wisconsin. Such has been known for the better part of a year, and the latest polls are no exception to the developing trends.

Illinois Senate Democratic nominee Tammy Duckworth (D-IL-8) released her internal Normington Petts research firm poll (Aug. 1-4; 800 likely Illinois general election voters) projecting a 44-37 percent Duckworth lead over Sen. Mark Kirk (R). Marquette University Law School, again polling the Wisconsin electorate (Aug. 4-7; 805 registered Wisconsin voters) as they have done regularly since the 2012 election, finds former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) topping incumbent Ron Johnson (R), 53-42 percent. This result swings a net of six points in Feingold’s favor when compared to the institution’s July survey. At that time, Feingold led 49-44 percent.

All the key Republican defense battleground states reported new August numbers. The good news for Democrats comes in Pennsylvania where challenger Katie McGinty (D) made a significant gain on Sen. Pat Toomey (R), to the point where several polls find her building a small lead.

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Trump Trends

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 12, 2016 — Despite major media coverage to the contrary, Donald Trump’s polling standing in comparison to Hillary Clinton appears to be improving nationally, and in certain key states. Other surveys point to Clinton sustaining her large leads.

The latest national poll, from Bloomberg News/Selzer & Company (Aug. 5-8; 1,007 adults, 749 likely US voters) finds Trump pulling back to within four points of Clinton, 44-40 percent, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson attracting a nine percent share, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein obtaining a four percent preference vote.

A day earlier, the UPI/C-Voter survey (Aug. 2-8; 993 likely US voters) came out with Clinton also maintaining a four-point advantage over Trump, 49-45 percent. In this survey, the third-party candidates were not included on the ballot test questionnaire.

Twenty-four hours before the UPI poll was released, NBC/Survey Monkey publicized the results of their latest large sample national poll (Aug. 1-7; 11,480 registered US voters). While showing a 10-point, 51-41 percent spread in a head-to-head question, the margin declines to six points (44-38-10-4 percent) when Johnson and Stein are added. The polls including the third party candidates are more realistic because Johnson will appear on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, while Stein has so far qualified in 27 states and is awaiting a favorable petition decision in an additional 10.

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Two Intriguing State Polls

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 1, 2016 — While Hillary Clinton was officially accepting the Democratic nomination last week in Philadelphia, a new Pennsylvania poll provided her with some encouraging news even as other data from a reliable Democratic state produced a much different conclusion.

Massachusetts’ Suffolk University surveyed the Pennsylvania electorate (July 25-27; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters) and revealed conclusions not found in previous polling data. While other pollsters have generally determined that Clinton and Donald Trump are running within a few points of each other, this new data suggests a much larger lead for the newly crowned Democratic nominee.

According to the Suffolk results, Clinton leads Trump, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 46-37-5-2 percent, quite a departure from the Quinnipiac University poll (June 30-July 11; 982 registered Pennsylvania voters), for example, which posted a six-point Trump lead.

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Bloomberg’s Polling Report

By Jim Ellis

July 5, 2016 — Often, people want to know which are the most accurate pollsters within the huge volume of data being released into the political marketplace. Bloomberg Politics reviewed the 2016 presidential pollsters who routinely release their numbers into the public domain and publicized their ratings late last week. They isolated a dozen polling firms and corresponding media organizations that picked the presidential primary winner in at least 70 percent of their studies. Polling frequency and reliability stats were also recorded.

The firm projecting the primary winner most often — 95 percent of the time — was Gravis Marketing, which conducted 19 surveys in 12 different states. The students who comprise the Emerson College Polling Society in Massachusetts, who have fared very well in previous performance review studies despite being amateurs, placed a close second in win predictability, proving correct 94 percent of the time. They polled 16 times in eight states. Completing the top five are Opinion Savvy (91 percent winner accuracy; 11 polls; eight states), NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College (90 percent winner accuracy; 29 polls; 15 states), and the Survey Monkey (90 percent winner accuracy; 10 polls; eight states).

But capturing the correct victory margin proved to be another story for all 12 pollsters. None of them came within the average polling error margin pertaining to victory spread projection in relation to their cumulative polling average.

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The Race Tightens — or Does It?

By Jim Ellis

July 1, 2016 — New recently released national and specific state polls are providing differing views about the presidential campaign’s current status. Though the conclusions vary among the publicly released surveys in terms of margin, all find Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump nationally and in the key states. It the modern political era the early election cycle has always favored the Democratic presidential candidate so the fact that Clinton has the initial advantage is not unusual or unexpected.

Quinnipiac University (June 21-27; 1,610 US registered voters) just released their latest national survey, and find Clinton’s advantage over Trump and Libertarian Gary Johnson has slipped to just 39-37-8 percent, an indication that the gap is closing even though many establishment Republican leaders continue to make anti-Trump public statements.

The new Fox News poll (June 26-28; 1,017 US registered voters) finds Clinton to be in a bit stronger position than does Quinnipiac, however. Fox forecasts a 41-36-10 percent Clinton edge over Trump and Johnson.

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