Tag Archives: President Trump

Perusing Presidential Predictors

By Jim Ellis

July 18, 2019 — Most of the attention surrounding the upcoming presidential campaign has revolved around polling, but other factors may be better long-term predictors of what may happen in next year’s national election.

Economic indicators might be the most accurate predictor in presidential elections. | pandologic

The Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas firm, a bipartisan public affairs enterprise, has compiled some interesting historical trends that may provide major assistance in at least determining what to study in preparation for the next presidential campaign.

Two of the strongest factors relate to a candidate’s Washington experience and the state of the economy during a president’s two-year re-election cycle.

The Vietnam War and Watergate scandal prove to be an interesting historical divider. According to the Mehlman firm’s research, prior to Vietnam and Watergate, the candidate having the most Washington experience won nine of the 10 presidential elections from 1936 through 1972, inclusive. Yet, after Vietnam and Watergate, the candidate with the most Washington experience lost nine of the next 11 presidential contests from 1976 through 2016.

This series of statistics doesn’t play well for former Vice President Joe Biden. Of all presidential candidates in US history, Biden has the most Washington experience having served in elective office for 44 years when combining his time in the US Senate and two terms as vice president.

Should Biden not become the nominee, Sen. Bernie Sanders would then have the most Washington experience, a total of 30 years at the campaign’s end when combining his service in the House and Senate. Sanders aside, the remaining candidates, including President Trump, all have relatively equivalent Washington experience meaning this topic would not be much of a factor unless the Democratic nominee were either of the aforementioned Biden or Sanders.

The economic indicator, however, might be the most accurate predictor. Charting the presidential elections for 100 years between 1912 and 2012, the Mehlman group found that in the 12 elections where the incumbent was running for a second term and there was no recession during the two-year election cycle, all 12 won the related campaign. In the six elections where an incumbent president was running when facing a recession during the concurrent campaign years, five were defeated. Only President Calvin Coolidge in 1924 was re-elected under such circumstances.

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The Trump Issues

President Donald Trump | whitehouse.gov


By Jim Ellis

July 12, 2019 — International pollster YouGov, surveying for The Economist magazine (July 7-9; 1,500 US adults from the YouGov opt-in Internet panel, 1,140 US registered voters, 592 likely Democratic primary voters) finds former Vice President Joe Biden maintaining a lead over the nomination field, but his margin is dissipating.

In this poll, Biden has a 22-17-14-11-5 percent advantage over Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Kamala Harris (D-CA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, respectively, but the survey contains much more information.

This YouGov poll presents an exhaustive study of the electorate and some of the more interesting findings containing the respondents’ views regarding President Trump’s performance in certain key issue areas. In fact, the YouGov pollsters queried the respondents on 17 different subjects that yielded various conclusions.

In almost every poll, President Trump records upside-down overall job approval ratings. In this particular survey, his approval index is 43:53 percent (-10) positive to negative within the registered voter sample.

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Murphy Wins Run-off in NC-3

By Jim Ellis

North Carolina state Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville)

July 11, 2019 — North Carolina state Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) scored an easy 60-40 percent victory over Dr. Joan Perry in the special Republican congressional run-off Tuesday night, thus becoming the party nominee in a special general election to succeed the late Congressman Walter Jones, Jr. (R-Farmville) who passed away in February.

The run-off campaign was particularly low key. Neither candidate raised nor spent a huge amount money throughout the entire nomination process. Rep. Murphy will have expended approximately $600,000, while Dr. Perry only reached the $400,000 mark. Both, however, saw independent expenditures conducted on their behalf.

Originally, it appeared the conservative groups would be lining up behind Dr. Perry, and particularly pro-life groups, but when House Freedom Caucus chairman Mark Meadows (R-Skyland/Asheville) publicly endorsed Rep. Murphy the ideological lines appeared to break down.

Murphy carried 12 of the district’s 17 counties, and scored big in his home county of Pitt, with an 82-18 percent victory margin that accounted for more than half of his district-wide 6,972 vote win from a low turnout of 35,916 Republican run-off ballot casters.

Dr. Perry rebounded in her own home county of Lenoir, registering 75 percent of the vote there and cutting Murphy’s district vote margin by 1,482 votes. Though Murphy won 70 percent of the district’s counties, several were by very close margins: 4, 26, 61, 93, 127, and 227 votes.

Now, we move to the Sept. 10 special general election. Back in the April 30 primary, former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas won the Democratic primary outright and automatically advanced into the general election. Now he and Rep. Murphy will battle for the seat in a campaign that should favor the new Republican nominee.

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Kobach Announces in Controversy

By Jim Ellis

Former Kansas secretary of state and 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach

July 10, 2019 — In most runs for public office, the day a candidate announces is one of the best campaign days. For former Kansas secretary of state and 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach, his declaration that he would run for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) open seat looks to have turned out differently.

Kobach’s Senate announcement on Monday, though speculated upon for several weeks, was met with a considerable amount of negativity from members of his own party including a spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Through a reported tweet from an interview with the Kansas City Star newspaper she said, “just last year [ex-Sec of State] Kris Kobach ran [as GOP nominee for governor] and lost to a Democrat. Now, he wants to do the same and simultaneously put President Trump’s presidency and [the GOP] Senate majority at risk.”

Kobach, the sitting secretary of state at the time, defeated Gov. Jeff Colyer in the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary by just 343 votes of over 317,000 ballots cast. Colyer was the state’s lieutenant governor who ascended to the governorship when two-term incumbent Sam Brownback resigned to accept a federal appointment. Post-nomination, the Kobach general election campaign was routinely rated as poor, from a lack of fundraising to deficient campaign strategy and implementation that caused him to lose 48-43 percent to then-state Sen. Laura Kelly (D-Topeka) who attracted a significant amount of Republican support.

Prior to his running for governor, Kobach was tabbed by President Trump to be vice-chairman and lead administrator for the President’s Advisory Committee on Election Integrity under Vice President Mike Pence. But Kobach’s leadership of this organization was also called into question. Asking for voter information from states that even Republican chief election officials routinely refused to turn over, the panel was dissolved after only seven months of existence with no tangible accomplishment.

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The Amash Factor

By Jim Ellis

Michigan Rep. Justin Amash

July 9, 2019 — Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (I-Cascade Township) officially left the Republican Party as the 4th of July approached, but what does his decision mean for the 3rd District’s political future?

Rep. Amash has served his whole career as a Republican, being first elected in an open congressional seat back in 2010 after winning a state House district in 2008. Though he left the GOP, he did not affiliate with the Libertarian Party, which many expected. Still, he has the option of running for that party’s presidential nomination even if he does not serve in Congress as a Libertarian.

But Amash’s decision clearly changes the congressional race. If he ultimately decides to seek re-election, his decision to leave the GOP is somewhat curious, at least from an electoral perspective. At this point, already four Republicans have announced, with at least three of them clearly credible. Two are sitting state representatives and one an heir to the Meijer retail store chain that features more than 200 stores predominantly in the Midwest. With no run-off required under Michigan election law, a large competitive field would have played to Rep. Amash’s favor since the contest would have been a base vote nomination election.

Should he decide to seek re-election as an Independent, then all bets might be off. Under the same premise that a crowded field could have helped Amash win a Republican primary, at least a three-way general election candidate field could conceivably allow him to win re-election in similar plurality fashion. But, either major party candidate might have the same advantage making this a wild card race.

Additionally, the three-way set-up could put what is typically a reliable Republican seat in play for the Democrats. Should Amash and the eventual Republican split the right-of-center base, it is conceivable that the Democratic nominee could find him or herself in position to score the plurality victory.

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