By Jim Ellis
April 3, 2019 — Continuing our early outlook of the 2020 House situation, we can begin by narrowing the field to those districts where Republicans will be concentrating at least their initial efforts in order to reclaim the majority they lost in November.
After the 2016 election, there were 12 districts that supported President Trump but elected a Democrat to the House. After the 2018 midterm, that number rose to 31. For the Republicans to regain the majority, they will need to convert a net 18 seats back to their column, or 19 if the Democrats score a victory in the NC-9 special election to be held later this year in the Charlotte-Fayetteville metro areas in southern North Carolina.
The other two House special elections, PA-12 (May 21) and NC-3 (Sept. 10), unless huge upsets occur, look to remain within the Republican stable of districts.
Of the 31 Trump/House Democrat seats, 16 of them also voted for Mitt Romney over President Obama in 2012. Furthermore, a dozen within this group elected a Republican Representative until the 2018 election. They are:
- GA-6 – Rep. Lucy McBath (D) – Defeated Karen Handel (R)
- IL-14 – Rep. Lauren Underwood (D) – Defeated Randy Hultgren (R)
- MI-8 – Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) – Defeated Mike Bishop (R)
- MI-11 – Rep. Haley Stevens (D) – Replaced David Trott (R)
- NJ-11 – Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) – Replaced Rodney Frelinghuysen
- NM-2 – Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) – Replaced Steve Pearce (R)
- NY-22 – Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) – Defeated Claudia Tenney (R)
- OK-5 – Rep. Kendra Horn (D) – Defeated Steve Russell (R)
- SC-1 – Rep. Joe Cunningham (D) – Replaced Mark Sanford (R)
- UT-4 – Rep. Ben McAdams (D) – Defeated Mia Love (R)
- VA-2 – Rep. Elaine Luria (D) – Defeated Scott Taylor (R)
- VA-7 – Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) – Defeated Dave Brat (R)