Tag Archives: NY-22

NY-22: Up 12, Down 14, Now +27

By Jim Ellis

Former New York Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) leads by a whopping
27 votes in her bid to return to the House in the NY-22 race.

Jan. 11, 2021 — The vacant NY-22 electoral count continues to drag on with an end possibly coming soon … at least until the post-election lawsuits begin. The judge still reviewing the initial voting results, Oswego County Supreme Court of the 5th Judicial District of New York Justice Scott DelConte, is personally reviewing all of the contested ballots that at one time totaled approximately 2,100.

Former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R), originally elected in 2016 and who Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica) unseated in 2018, indicated that the latest count, which election officials provided to the candidates, shows her holding a 27-vote districtwide edge. Originally, Tenney led by 12 votes, then, a later tabulation allowed Brindisi to turn the tables to post a 14 vote lead; now Tenney appears to have re-captured the slight advantage, this time by a whopping 27 votes.

The former congresswoman was quoted in a media statement saying, “now that every undisputed ballot has been counted twice, we are still in the lead.” At issue, however, are between 400-500 contested ballots recently delivered to the Justice from Oneida County, an entity that Tenney carried.

Of the district’s eight counties, six of them have finally completed their tabulation after correcting the errors in their ballot challenge procedure per the judge’s instructions. Only small Tioga County, approximately 5,700 votes, had no issues after the initial count. The other seven counties, Justice DelConte concluded, had not complied with New York election law in processing and reporting their challenged ballots; hence, the presiding judge returned the affected ballots to the county offices with orders to correctly process and account for the undetermined votes.

The two remaining outstanding counties in relation to their challenged ballots, Broome and Oneida, are the district’s largest local entities. Together all of Oneida County and the 22nd District portion of Broome, which contains almost the entire latter county’s resident number, account for 60.4 percent of the district’s population. Tenney carried Oneida, with a 50.1 – 48.5 percent vote spread. Brindisi, the 116th Congress incumbent, placed first in Broome County, 56.5 – 40.8 percent. All but the challenged ballots are accounted for, however, and Tenney still maintains the slightest of district leads.

A total of 100,618 votes were cast in Oneida County and 89,775 in Broome. Districtwide, not counting the challenged votes, the district vote total exceeds 311,000 ballots.

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The House Convenes

By Jim Ellis

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) barely retained the Speakership in a narrow vote.

Jan. 4, 2021 — The 117th House of Representatives was called to order yesterday in an unusual Sunday commencement session, and even on the first day the House membership is not complete. The elected body includes 433 members. The NY-22 seat is still undecided, and the LA-5 district is now vacant due to the shocking death of Rep.-Elect Luke Letlow (R).

The vote for Speaker in favor of incumbent Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was 216-209. Two Democrats, Reps. Conor Lamb (D-PA) and Jared Golden (D-ME), did not support Pelosi, voting for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), respectively, while three others voted present. Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), and Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), all re-elected with closer than expected margins, only acknowledged their presence in the chamber while responding to the vote for Speaker.

Two members were unable to participate in yesterday’s ceremony. Florida Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Delray Beach), due to cancer treatments, and fellow Sunshine State Rep.-Elect Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami), because of a positive COVID test, were absent for the first session.

Three other seats will soon be vacant. Reps. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), Marcia Fudge (D-OH), and Deb Haaland (D-NM) have all been appointed to or nominated for positions in the Biden Administration.

Rep. Richmond will resign on Jan. 20 to run the White House Office of Public Engagement. This position does not require Senate confirmation. Reps. Fudge and Haaland must receive Senate confirmation for their nominations as secretaries of Housing and Urban Development and Interior, respectively. They will resign from the House upon receiving such approval for their new positions.

The NY-22 election is still undecided, now two full months after Election Day, and it may still be some time before the winner is actually determined. As the counties are finally finishing their vote totals after Justice of the Oswego County Supreme Court Scott DelConte ordered seven of the eight local entities to review and properly submit the challenged ballots to the court. Justice DelConte ruled that the seven counties failed to adhere to New York election law in processing and accounting for the challenged ballots.

The totals continue to fluctuate, as Tenney has seen her 12-vote lead swell to 29, before her fortunes changed to trailing by 14 tallies. Perhaps more importantly, DelConte has been ruling in favor of Rep. Anthony Brindisi’s (D-Utica) challenges, which could be a prelude to the final outcome. More than 2,000 ballots were contested by the competing parties.

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NY-22: Judge Rules

By Jim Ellis

Former US Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) leads freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica) by just 12 votes out of 317,727 tabulated ballots.

Dec. 10, 2020 — The only House race still uncertified or undecided will remain in political limbo for at least a couple of more weeks. Tuesday, in a 20-page ruling, state Supreme Court Justice Scott DelConte returned the contested race back to the counties to properly complete the canvass process in order to ensure that all eligible votes are counted and recorded.

At this point, former US Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) leads freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica) by just 12 votes of 317,727 tabulated ballots.

At one point, Tenney led the count by 28,422 votes, but that lead all but disappeared when the 60,000-plus mail votes were recorded. At one point, Brindisi took a 13-vote lead, but a discovered mistaken count in Herkimer County changed the outcome to give Tenney her present 12-vote edge.

In New York, the local district court — or superior court as some states label it — is referred to as a Supreme Court. Justice DelConte has assumed jurisdiction for the case and determined that seven of the congressional district’s eight counties did not follow New York election law or procedure as to how county personnel handled many of the contested ballots and those that are seemingly uncounted.

Additionally, the judge denied both Tenney’s motion to certify the current count and Rep. Brindisi’s motion to recount only some of the counties and precincts. Justice DelConte wrote that Tenney’s motion ignored the clear fact that a bevy of ballots remain uncounted and recorded, and Brindisi only wants to adjust the areas that are favorable to him.

Only Tioga County correctly completed the counting and canvass process and is therefore not involved in this post-election adjustment period. Personnel in the other seven counties, however, at least failed to adhere to New York law that requires a written explanation on the invalid ballot itself as to why it was rejected and who made the challenge. Instead, many contested ballots were affixed with post-it notes, many of which have become dislodged and lost.

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IA-2: Hart Petitions the House

By Jim Ellis

IA-2 Republican congresswoman-elect Mariannette Miller-Meeks – or is she?

Dec. 4, 2020 — As things officially stand, Rita Hart, the Democratic nominee in the open IA-2 congressional district that occupies the southeastern part of the state, has lost to state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa) by a grand total of six votes from more than 393,000 ballots cast, but the challenge process from the Democrat is apparently not over.

Though the state has certified the race, Hart is reportedly preparing to take the results directly to the US House of Representatives, asking the House Administration Committee to investigate the counting process. Ultimately, the House itself has the power to seat all of its members.

Normally, any individual possessing a duly authorized certificate of election from the state’s official election administrator, usually the Secretary of State, is seated. There is precedence, however, for denying duly elected candidates their seats.

Under Iowa election law and procedure, Hart had another way to challenge the results. Her campaign staff claims that certain ballots were not counted in the original or recount process, and there are enough, they say, to flip the final outcome in Hart’s direction.

In Iowa, such a disputed election goes to a judicial panel over which the state Supreme Court Chief Justice presides. In addition to the Chief Justice, the high court then chooses four other judges from around the state to comprise the special panel. In this case, the judges would have had to declare an official winner by Dec. 8 in order to comply with Iowa law. The Hart campaign contended that was not adequate time to consider the ballot challenges, so they opted to petition the House itself.

Rep. Zoe Lofrgen (D-CA) chairs the House Administration Committee, which includes five additional Democrats, two more from California, and three Republicans. The other members are: Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Susan Davis (D-CA), G.K. Butterfield (D-NC), Marcia Fudge (D-OH), and Pete Aguilar (D-CA). The Republicans are Ranking Minority Member Rodney Davis (R-IL) and Reps. Mark Walker (R-NC), and Barry Loudermilk (R-GA).

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Final House Tally: 223-212?

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 1, 2020 — The latest outstanding congressional race numbers suggest that the House may break 223 Democrats to 212 Republicans when some very close elections are finally decided. If this is indeed the final party division among the 435 seats, the GOP will only be six congressional districts away from re-claiming the House majority in the 2022 elections.

Currently, we see Real Clear Politics projecting California Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) as the winner over state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall) in the state’s 25th CD, which lies in parts of both Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.

With still a small undetermined number of votes to be verified and counted, Garcia’s tight 405-vote margin appears to be holding. Our own rudimentary projections suggest that the freshman Republican congressman will hold by just under 400 votes. It is probable we will see a recount and potential ballot challenges, so the result may be challenged before and after certification. Under California election law, certification for all races must occur by Dec. 11.

We have seen several projections made suggesting former California Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) has defeated freshman Rep. T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) in the state’s Central Valley 21st CD. Valadao has a 1,820-vote lead according to the California Target Book organization’s in-depth analysis.

Our more rudimentary estimates suggest that Valadao will win the final count by approximately 1,400 votes based upon the potential number of outstanding ballots in the three counties, Kern, Kings, and Tulare, that are still verifying and counting mail votes. Fresno County has completed its count.

Later today, we expect to see the second certification of Iowa candidate Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) in the state’s 2nd Congressional District. Under Iowa law, a certification had to be issued one week after the election, in this case Nov. 10, and Miller-Meeks, a state senator from Ottumwa who is in her fourth run for the US House, was originally certified as the winner with a 47-vote margin. The full recount finds former state senator and 2018 lieutenant governor nominee Rita Hart (D) gaining votes but still losing by a total of just six votes districtwide from more than 394,400 ballots cast, a Miller-Meeks winning percentage of 50.0008 percent.

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