Tag Archives: North Carolina

Independent Candidates Draw More Votes From Biden; CA-20 Top Contender Disqualified; Another House Retirement; North Carolina Candidate Filing Closes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Harvard-Harris Poll: Independents Draw More Votes From Biden — Originally when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had announced as an Independent for the office of President of the United States, the subsequent early polls found him taking slightly more support from former president Donald Trump than President Joe Biden. Recently, that trend has reversed. The new Harvard University survey that The Harris Poll and HarrisX conducted (Dec. 13-14; 2,034 US registered voters; online) is now typical. They find that Kennedy and the other minor party/independent candidates are apparently siphoning away more support from President Biden than other future potential general election opponents.

In the isolated Biden-Trump ballot test, Trump would lead 52-48 percent. Adding just RFK Jr., the Trump advantage expands to 44-36-20 percent. A third ballot test, that included Biden, Trump, Kennedy, Independent candidate Dr. Cornel West, and likely Green Party nominee Jill Stein, saw a 43-35-17-2-2 percent division.

House

CA-20: Top Contender Disqualified — Because state Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) had filed for re-election for that seat, and California’s secretary of state had officially accepted his documents, the state’s chief elections officer ruled on Friday that Fong is ineligible to switch to the open congressional race. Therefore, despite his endorsement from outgoing Congressman Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), Fong will apparently not be on the congressional ballot.

This leaves the GOP field to Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, who is president of the California Sheriffs Association, businessman David Giglio, businessman and former congressional candidate Matt Stoll, and casino owner Kyle Kirkland.

The 20th District is the safest Republican seat in the California delegation. Seeing the all-party jungle primary produce a double Republican general election appears a distinct possibility.

GA-3: Another House Retirement — Georgia US Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-The Rock/ Carrollton) announced on Friday that he will not seek a fifth term in the House, saying that “Georgia is a special place, and it’s calling us home.” Ferguson, first elected in 2016, served two terms as the Republican Chief Deputy Whip and is a member of the House Ways & Means Committee. He averaged 66.9 percent of the vote in his four successful congressional campaigns.

The 3rd District hugs the Alabama border in western Georgia, and lies among the cities of Atlanta, Columbus, and Macon. GA-3 is the third-strongest Republican congressional seat in the Peach State. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+38, while the Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 51st safest in the Republican Conference. Donald Trump defeated President Biden here 64-34 percent in the 2020 election. Rep. Ferguson’s successor will be decided in the Republican nomination process. GA-3 becomes the 37th open US House seat headed to the next election.

North Carolina: Candidate Filing Closes — The candidate filing period for North Carolina’s March 5 primary closed on Friday, and we now see a slate of contenders in the newly drawn congressional seats. The state also features an open governor’s race, but no US Senate campaign in 2024.

Republicans filed contenders in all 14 Tar Heel State CDs, but two Republicans will run unopposed unless the Democrats can petition a candidate on the ballot. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) in the 3rd District and the eventual nominee in the Greensboro anchored 6th (Rep. Kathy Manning-D retiring), saw no Democratic candidate file.

One of the most competitive seats for the general election appears to be District 1, where freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) sees his new CD yield only a 50-49 percent victory for President Biden in 2020, though Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a slightly more favorable Democratic overall partisan lean, 50.9D – 47.7R. The likely Republican nominee here is former congressional candidate Sandy Smith.

Hotly contested Republican primaries will occur in the open 6th, 8th (Rep. Dan Bishop-R running for attorney general), 10th (Rep. Patrick McHenry-R retiring), 13th (Rep. Wiley Nickel-D retiring), and 14th (Rep. Jeff Jackson-D running for Attorney General) districts. Under North Carolina voting laws, a runoff occurs only if a candidate fails to break 30 percent of the original primary vote.

Trump Sweeping Biden in Swing States; Malinowski Searches for NJ Senate Support; GOP Puts Forth Interesting NY-3 Candidate; NC-13 Rep. Wiley Nickel Out; Longtime Pol Jumps Into NJ Race

Former President Donald Trump up in polling.

By Jim Ellis, Monday, Dec. 18, 2023

President

Bloomberg/Morning Consult Polls: Trump Sweeping Biden in Swing States — Bloomberg News and Morning Consult partnered for a swing state polling series in the domains that will likely decide the 2024 presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Individual surveys were conducted in each state during the Nov. 27 through Dec. 6 period. Sample sizes ranged from 451 registered voters to 801 such individuals depending upon the state’s population size. All included Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the questionnaire along with Independent Cornel West and likely Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Trump led in all seven polls both when the ballot test included the minor candidates and when he and President Joe Biden were isolated. Trump’s margins (with the minor party candidates) were: Arizona (+4), Georgia (+7), Michigan (+4), Nevada (+5), North Carolina (+9), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+6).

To win the election, Trump would need to hold North Carolina, and carry Georgia plus one or two of the other aforementioned states. Trump’s smallest configuration to yield a victory of 270 electoral votes — and this assumes he holds all the other states he won in 2020 — would include Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Senate

New Jersey: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Interviews for Party Senate Endorsements — Former US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D), who served two terms in the House before his re-election defeat in 2022 and who is now an unannounced US Senate candidate, conducted interviews with the Union County municipal Democratic Party chairmen seeking their endorsement for his potential statewide bid. Malinowski represented most of Union County in the US House. New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy and US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) already are in the primary race, challenging indicted Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez.

Malinowski would have to overcome long odds in order to win the party nomination, and it is no foregone conclusion that he will actually enter the race. Despite calls for his resignation, Menendez is not leaving the Senate, nor has he ruled out running for re-election. Polls, however, suggest he would badly lose the Democratic primary.

House

NY-3: Local Republicans Nominate Mazi Melesa Pilip — The Nassau and Queens County Republican Party chairmen have nominated Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, an Ethiopian-born former member of the Israeli military, as their special election congressional nominee. She will oppose the Democratic nominee, former Congressman Tom Suozzi in the Feb. 13 special election to serve the balance of expelled Rep. George Santos’ (R) term.

Interestingly, Pilip is reportedly still a registered Democrat even though she is an elected Republican and will now be the GOP congressional nominee. She is an interesting choice that will likely draw more attention to what is likely to become a competitive special election.

NC-13: Rep. Wiley Nickel Won’t Seek Re-Election, Will Return in 2026 — In an admission that he would not be successful running for re-election in North Carolina’s newly configured 13th Congressional District, Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) announced late last week that he would end his career in the US House after one term. Rather, he will return to elective politics in 2026 and challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R). In that year, Sen. Tillis, assuming he seeks re-election, will be on the ballot for a third term.

The new 13th District begins in the Dunn area south of Raleigh in Harnett County. The seat then moves northward around Raleigh on the east side of Wake County and stretches to the Virginia border. The 2022 state Supreme Court drew a 13th District that shared part of Wake County, annexing the city of Cary, and then moved south of the capital city to include Johnston County and parts of Hartnett and Wayne Counties.

The partisan lean for new Congressional District 13, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, is 56.6R – 41.2D. Under the map to which Rep. Nickel was elected, the 13th CD held a much different 49.5D – 48.1R partisan lean.

Also leaving the North Carolina congressional delegation are Reps. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) and Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte), who like Rep. Nickel face difficult re-election odds on the new Tar Heel State congressional map. Jackson is running for the open state attorney general’s position and will probably face his colleague in the adjoining congressional district, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte), in the statewide race.

Governor

New Jersey: Defeated State Senate President Launches ’25 Gov Campaign — Former New Jersey state Senate President Steve Sweeney (D), who served in the legislature for 20 years before his shocking upset defeat in the 2021 election, announced that he will enter the open 2025 gubernatorial campaign. Sweeney presided over the state Senate as its president for a 14-year period.

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term and as in Virginia, where another odd-numbered gubernatorial position will be open, candidates are already announcing for their respective offices long before even the 2024 election transpires.

Announcing for the 2025 gubernatorial race before Sweeney was Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop. Both US Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) are reported to be testing the waters to also run for governor. For the Republicans, former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli — immediately after his close 2021 loss to Gov. Murphy — already announced that he would return for another gubernatorial bid in 2025.

Schiff Leads in Two Polls; Democrats Nominate Ex-Rep. Suozzi; Manning Won’t Seek Re-Election; Competitive North Carolina Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 11, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

California: Schiff Leads in Two Polls — A pair of mid-November polls were released of the California Senate race, and both find Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) leading the pack of open-seat candidates, but by a small margin. If these two polls prove accurate, both Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) would advance into a double-Democratic general election to be decided in November. Former baseball great Steve Garvey is a close third and still could be in position to claim second place in the March 5 all-party jungle primary if he could unite the Republican vote.

Emerson College (Nov. 11-14; 1,000 likely California primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Schiff to a 16-13-10-9 percent advantage over Porter, Garvey, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), respectively. The University of California at Berkeley through the Public Policy Institute of California (Nov. 9-16; 1,113 likely California voters; online) conducted an extensive survey that included a ballot test question about the US Senate race. Their results, similar to those Emerson produced, projects Rep. Schiff leading the field by a larger 21-16-10-8 percent spread over Porter, Garvey, and Lee.

House

NY-3: Democrats Nominate Ex-Rep. Suozzi — Though the timing took a bit longer than expected, the Nassau County Democratic Party chairman announced late last week that former US Rep. Tom Suozzi will be the special election nominee to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R). Republicans are expected to name their candidate early this week.

While the prevailing wisdom is that Suozzi is a lock to convert the seat for the Democrats, an Opinion Diagnostics survey suggests the race may be closer than one might expect. The survey, conducted for financial executive Kellen Curry’s (R) campaign (Nov. 30; 900 NY-3 registered voters; text & online) found Suozzi scoring only between 43.3 and 44.9 percent against three potential Republican special election nominees. The three Republicans record percentages between 38.0 and 39.9 percent, thus signaling a potentially competitive special election campaign. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) called the election for Feb. 13.

NC-6: Rep. Manning Won’t Seek Re-Election — Two-term North Carolina US Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) announced late last week that she will not file for re-election. Saying, “I would love nothing more than to continue representing our community in Congress. Unfortunately, the egregiously gerrymandered maps do not make this race competitive, and I cannot in good conscience ask people to invest their time, resources and efforts in a campaign that is rigged against us. However, if the impending lawsuits are successful and the general assembly is forced to draw fair congressional districts, I will seek to continue my service to our community.”

The new 6th District would have voted for former President Donald Trump in a 57-41 percent count. Under the Democratic court map, the 6th supported President Joe Biden with a 56-43 percent margin. North Carolina redistricting had gone back and forth for a decade between the Republican legislature and the Democratic state Supreme Court. With the Republicans winning the court races in 2022, the court and legislature now approach redistricting legislation from largely the same viewpoint.

Rep. Manning’s retirement means 36 seats are now open for the next election. A total of 22 of the open seats are currently Democratic held, 13 come from the Republican column, and one new seat has been created under the new Alabama court-drawn redistricting plan.

Governor

North Carolina: Lt. Gov. Robinson Still in Front — The open North Carolina governor’s post will feature one of the most competitive such campaigns in the nation. The likely party nominees are Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D). Early polling has given Robinson a slight lead, and the new East Carolina University survey (Nov. 29-Dec. 1; 915 North Carolina registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) draws a similar conclusion. The new numbers find Robinson posting a 44-40 percent general election lead over AG Stein.

Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Robinson is completing his first term as lieutenant governor, while Stein will be serving his eighth year as attorney general. Stein’s most recent victory was a razor-thin 50.1 – 49.9 percent in 2020 and further suggests that he begins this gubernatorial race in an underdog position.

Liz Cheney Considers Candidacy for Presidency; Illinois Candidate Filing Closes; NY-3 Dems Want More Time; McHenry to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023

President

Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R) was one of 10 Republican House members who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump.

Liz Cheney: Publicly Considers Independent Candidacy — Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R) said that she is considering running as an Independent in the presidential race for the purpose of taking votes away from former President Donald Trump.

While Cheney didn’t declare her candidacy, she might find the ballot qualification obstacles much more formidable than she might believe. Not representing a political party with ballot status, an Independent must navigate 51 different requirement systems to earn a nationwide ballot line. This realization will likely discourage several of the candidates who are looking to launch non-affiliated presidential efforts.

House

Illinois: Candidate Filing Closes — Candidate filing for the Illinois March 19 primary has concluded, and several points of note are present. With no Senate race in Illinois this year, the focus of attention will be the presidential race and the US House campaigns as well as other down ballot Land of Lincoln campaigns.

Four delegation incumbents drew no major party general election opposition. Reps. Jesue “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), Jan Schacowsky (D-Evanston), Mary Miller (R-Oakland), and Darin LaHood (R-Peoria) look to have free rides in the general election. Reps. Miller and LaHood also drew no primary opponent.

Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago), running for a 15th term, has five Democratic primary opponents. While the effort against him is serious considering his 2022 renomination percentage was only 51.9, the fact that so many people are on the ballot will split the anti-Davis vote and allow him to win renomination with plurality support. Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) sees a primary battle emerging from the party’s 2022 gubernatorial nominee, former state Sen. Darren Bailey.

The most competitive general election race looks to be in the Quad Cities area of western Illinois where freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) is likely to face retired circuit judge Joe McGraw (R).

NY-3: Democrats Want More Time to Pick Nominee — A bit of a political surprise has occurred on Long Island. Tuesday was the planned day that former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) was scheduled to be presented as the party’s special election nominee to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R). While Nassau County chairman Jay Jacobs has a virtual monopoly on naming the nominee, he says more time is required to consult with party leaders on the county committee, in addition to US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn), and other prominent Democrats.

Jacobs, who is also the New York State Democratic Committee chairman, further said that the nomination is not a “lock” for any candidate and that contenders in addition to Suozzi are being interviewed before the party committee structure. Republicans are going through the same process. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) set the 3rd District special election for Feb. 13.

NC-10: Rep. Patrick McHenry to Retire — House Financial Services chairman Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman), who is the Speaker Pro Tempore and presided over the election of Speaker Mike Johnson, announced Tuesday that he will not seek an 11th term in the House next year. Term-limited in his chairmanship even if the Republicans hold the majority, Rep. McHenry, still only 48 years old, will end his congressional tenure after 20 years in office.

The McHenry retirement means that 34 seats and counting will be open for the next election. NC-10 should remain safely in Republicans hands (Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 56.6R – 41.3D partisan lean), so the battle to succeed the retiring congressman will lie in the Republican primary. The North Carolina primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. If no one reaches 30 percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held on May 14.

42-Year Incumbent Rep. Kaptur to Run Again; No OH-6 Special Election; NC Filing Deadline Approaches; Jackson Lee Trails in Houston Mayoral Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023

House

Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo)

OH-9: 42-Year Incumbent Dem to Run Again — US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), initially elected in 1982, officially confirmed that she will file to seek a 22nd term. The Ohio candidate filing deadline is Dec. 20 for the March 19 primary, so candidates and challengers in this state, too, are entering the time frame where career decisions must be made.

Though the 9th District favors the Republicans by an average of six percentage points, Rep. Kaptur posted a 57-43 percent victory margin last November against a weak Republican candidate. With former state Rep. Chris Riedel expected to prevail in the 2024 GOP primary, Rep. Kaptur will face a more difficult re-election campaign. The congresswoman ranks fourth in US House seniority, and she is the second-longest serving Democrat behind only former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

OH-6: No Special Election to Replace Rep. Johnson — Last week, Ohio US Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) announced that he will leave Congress in March to become president of Youngstown State University. Since Johnson is leaving the House after the 2024 candidate filing deadline (Dec. 20, 2023), Ohio election procedure indicates there will be no special election to fill the balance of the term. This means the March 19 plurality primary will likely decide Johnson’s successor within a crowded field of Republican candidates.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OH-6 as R+31, and former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a strong 64-37 percent margin in 2020. Therefore, count on the GOP to easily hold the district in the 2024 general election.

Assuming New York US Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is soon expelled, and former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) wins the special election to replace him as expected, the Republican majority after next March will shrink to 220-214. Therefore, the already close House will soon become even tighter.

North Carolina: Filing Deadline Approaching; New Announcements — The North Carolina congressional campaigns have been active this week, largely because the Dec. 15 candidate filing deadline is fast approaching, and members and challengers need to make final decisions about whether their names will be placed on the ballot next year.

Tuesday saw two announcements. One of the better Republican challenger candidates, state Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), who previously announced a congressional bid against US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), has decided not to enter the federal race. Instead, she will run for re-election to the state House of Representatives. Pare is indicating her decision is for family reasons, but 2023 redistricting while making the 13th District much more Republican is no longer geographically favorable to Rep. Pare. The eventual GOP nominee here will be favored to unseat Rep. Nickel in November.

In western North Carolina, Democratic state Rep. Caleb Rudow (D-Asheville) declared his challenge to freshman Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) in a new 11th District where the 2020 electorate voted 55-44 percent for former President Trump according to the Daily Kos Elections site statisticians. You will remember that Rep. Edwards is the Republican candidate who denied then-Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) renomination in the 2022 campaign. Though Rudow is a credible Democratic contender, Rep. Edwards will be heavily favored to retain the seat in the next election.

Cities

Houston: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Trails in New Mayoral Poll — Survey USA conducted a poll for the University of Houston pertaining to Texas’ largest city’s mayoral campaign (Nov. 13-18; 1,120 Houston adults; 971 registered voters; 805 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) as we approach the Dec. 9 runoff election. The ballot test is breaking 42-35 percent in favor of state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), the second-longest serving member of the Texas legislature having been initially elected in 1972. US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who qualified in second place for the runoff, continues to trail Whitmire as the campaign begins to conclude.

According to the S-USA poll, crime is the overwhelming issue of concern. From the tested respondent pool a whopping 63 percent say they don’t feel safe walking around the city during the day.

Sen. Tim Scott Out; Primary Rematch Announced in Rep. Omar’s District; Candidate Again Switches Districts; Two Texas Reps Out; Spanberger to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2023

President

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

Sen. Tim Scott: Suspends Campaign — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott announced that he is suspending his 2024 presidential campaign, effectively ending his effort to secure an upset win for the Republican presidential nomination. In late October, Sen. Scott’s campaign principals announced they were turning the strategic focus toward the Iowa Caucuses, but the decision did not result in any appreciable gain in support. This, and barely qualifying for his last debate, led the Palmetto State lawmaker to leave the race. He follows former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-US Rep. Will Hurd in exiting the campaign.

The Republican presidential campaign now actively features former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the top tier of candidates. Long shots Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also remain in the race.

House

MN-5: Dem Primary Rematch Announced — Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a 50.3 – 48.2 percent renomination victory in the 2022 Democratic primary, has officially announced that he will return for a rematch next year. Two other candidates previously announced, so it remains to be seen if they will continue their campaigns or if they will give Samuels a clear path toward challenging Rep. Omar.

Sarah Gad, an attorney who previously ran for office in Illinois, and businessman Tim Peterson are the announced Democratic candidates. Neither had raised even $55,000 through the Sept. 30 campaign finance reporting deadline. Considering Rep. Omar’s outspoken position regarding the war in Israel, we can expect that particular issue to play a major role in the 2024 campaign. The Minnesota primary is scheduled for Aug. 13, 2024.

NC-6: Candidate Hines Again Switches Districts — Republican Bo Hines, who many observers say proved himself a weak candidate when he lost the politically marginal 13th District to now-Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) in 2022, has again switched districts. Before losing the 13th District race last November, he originally declared to run in a western North Carolina district. Earlier this year, Hines announced a re-match effort against Rep. Nickel. Now, post-redistricting Round II, he is switching yet again. This time, he will run in the new 6th District against Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro).

Redistricting appears to have made NC-6 the most vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference, so Republican chances of converting this seat are strong. Hines, however, must face former Congressman Mark Walker in the Republican primary. After the districts were passed into law, Walker abandoned his long-shot gubernatorial campaign and now becomes a clear favorite to win the Republican nomination in the new 6th, which closely resembles the district he represented for three terms.

TX-4 & 26: Two Texas Reps Won’t Seek Re-Election — As candidate filing deadlines begin to approach in the early primary states, we are seeing 2024 electoral decisions being made. Two more members of the Texas US House delegation announced that they will not run for re-election next year. Veteran Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point), in a 26th District that covers three-quarters of Denton County, all of Cooke and two-thirds of Wise County in North Texas, announced that he will not seek an 11th term in the House. Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco), in a more surprising move since he was elected to Congress just three years ago, is opting to run for the state Senate seat that he left to originally run for Congress.

Both Texas seats are safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-4 as R+31, while TX-26 is rated R+26. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 4th and 26th as the 159th and 127th most vulnerable seats, respectively, in the Republican Conference.

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger to Run for Governor — Three-term US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) announced that she will run for governor of Virginia in 2025. The move means she will not seek re-election to the House in 2024.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), under Virginia’s unique one-term limit law for its state chief executives, is ineligible to seek re-election. Therefore, the position will again be open for the 2025 election. Rep. Spanberger reports more than $1.4 million cash-on-hand in her congressional committee, all of which is transferable to a Virginia state campaign.

Without Spanberger seeking re-election, the 7th District becomes highly competitive in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates 51.1D – 47.2R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks VA-7 as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

RFK Jr.’s Equal Impact; Casey Maintains Lead in PA; Blake Masters Enters Open Arizona Race; Redistricting Map Struck Down in Georgia; Sarbanes to Retire; North Carolina News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 30, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr.: Equal Impact Effect — Before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his Independent candidacy, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump were generally at parity in national polling, with either contender clinging to a small lead or being deadlocked. We see two new national surveys adding Kennedy to their questionnaire, yet the leader still records the same type of close margins. Dr. Cornel West is included in some polls as another Independent candidate, but it is doubtful that he can qualify for enough state ballots to become a viable factor.

The HarrisX poll (Oct. 16-23; 3,029 US registered voters; online) sees Trump leading Biden and Kennedy, 40-38-18 percent. In what is now an unrealistic head-to-head pairing between Trump and Biden, Trump’s edge is four percentage points.

Suffolk University (Oct. 17-20; 1,000 US registered voters; live interview) sees a similar Biden-Trump-Kennedy 38-37-14 percent split. If the two major party candidates were only running against each other, the Suffolk data finds a 43-41 percent division in President Biden’s favor. Again, with such small margins that don’t greatly change, it appears that Kennedy may be pulling almost equally from both major party candidates.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Maintains Lead — Franklin & Marshall College again surveyed the Keystone State electorate (Oct. 11-22; 873 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) as they do several times per year, and while this particular sampling period is long the US Senate ballot test results are consistent with other previously published surveys. According to the F&M data, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) has a 46-39 percent advantage over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Sen. Casey runs four points ahead of President Biden within the same sampling universe, while McCormick’s support percentage is three points below that of former President Trump.

House

AZ-8: Blake Masters Enters Open Race — As expected when this seat opened, 2022 Republican US Senate nominee Blake Masters announced that he will run for the 8th District seat in the 2024 election. Also in the race is Abe Hamadeh, the Republican attorney general nominee who lost the 2022 statewide race by less than 300 votes. Retiring US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria), has already endorsed state House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Paradise), but Toma has yet to announce his congressional candidacy.

Masters’ chances of coming through a crowded primary with plurality support are good. The eventual Republican will be a heavy favorite in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-8 as R+22. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 77th most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference.

Georgia: Federal Judge Strikes Down Congressional Map — In a developing story, a federal judge has struck down the Georgia congressional map as a racial gerrymander. The main district in question is Rep. Rich McCormick’s (R-Suwanee) 6th CD. It remains to be seen what steps the state takes. The judge is giving the lawmakers until Dec. 8 to redraw the map.

MD-3: Rep. John Sarbanes (D) to Retire — Nine-term Maryland US Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore) announced late last week that he will retire from the House after this current Congress ends. In a statement, Sarbanes said, “ … before coming to Congress, I also found great reward in working with nonprofits, volunteering and otherwise contributing to my community. That too is a powerful form of public service. For some time now, I have found myself drawn back to that kind of work — wanting to explore the many opportunities to serve that exist outside of elected office. With that in mind, I have decided not to seek re-election in 2024.”

Sarbanes’ departure will ignite a major Democratic primary for the open seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat as D+14. President Biden carried the district with a 62-36 percent margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks MD-3 as the 79th most vulnerable district in the Democratic Conference. In a presidential election year, this race will be decided in what promises to be a crowded Democratic primary.

NC-14: Rep. Jackson (D) to Run for Attorney General — As expected, Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte), saying a Democrat cannot win the newly drawn 14th District, announced that he will not seek re-election and instead is now a candidate for the open attorney general’s position. In a video showing him as a boxer giving and taking punches, Jackson said he is targeting corrupt politicians, big corporations, and organized crime in his run for the top law enforcement job in the Tar Heel State.

As in the nine other Republican districts on the new congressional map, the new 14th that begins in Charlotte and moves west to encompass all or parts of five other counties, will likely elect the GOP nominee. All indications point to state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) as Rep. Jackson’s eventual successor.

North Carolina: Redistricting Passes into Law; Ex-Rep. Walker Will Run — Both the North Carolina House and Senate passed the new congressional and state legislative maps, thus enacting them into law as Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has no veto authority over redistricting legislation. The map favors Republicans in 10 of the state’s 14 districts.

In Rep. Kathy Manning’s (D-Greensboro) new 6th District, which voted for Donald Trump by a 57-41 percent split according to the Daily Kos Elections statisticians, former US representative and 2022 US Senate candidate Mark Walker (R) announced that he will leave the governor’s race and instead run for this new district. For three terms, Walker represented a similar 6th District. He chose not to run in 2020 after a court-drawn map made NC-6 a heavily Democratic seat that Manning was able to claim.