Tag Archives: New York

The Final Outlook

2018-elections-open-seatsBy Jim Ellis

Nov. 6, 2018 — Election Day has arrived, but it is likely that a majority of those planning to vote have already done so. Early voting totals are way up in most of the 37 states that employ a pre-election ballot casting procedure in comparison to the 2014 midterm election.

According to the University of Florida’s United States Elections Project, 25 of the 37 states report receiving more early votes than they did four years ago. None, however, is larger than Texas where early voting has already exceeded that grand total votes cast in 2014. The same also has occurred in Nevada, but it’s less surprising since the last midterm aggregate turnout there was unusually low.

In Texas, just under 4.9 million votes already have been received. In 2014, the aggregate early and Election Day vote was 4.72 million. In 2014, 44 percent of the total vote was cast early. If this same pattern occurs, the current election total turnout will exceed the 2016 presidential level participation figure of 8.96 million votes, however it is unlikely that will happen. How the increased turnout will affect the election outcome is undetermined at this point, but the high number of first-time voters suggest that Democrats could improve their typical standing.

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Surprising Q3 Financial Disclosures

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 19, 2018 — The third quarter financial disclosure reports are now public, and more details are readily available. Thus, we are able to learn about various record-setting fundraising efforts.

FEC-moneyIn addition to Texas US Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) attracting $38 million in the third quarter, an all-time record for any such campaign, several House candidates also reported financial numbers that have never been seen for district-level politics.

In the third quarter of 2018, nine House contenders exceeded raising $3 million, eight Democrats and one Republican.

In California’s 22nd District, incumbent Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare), the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, was the top Republican fundraiser and appears to have accumulated more financial resources for the entire campaign than any other congressional candidate of either party. In the quarter, Rep. Nunes raised $3.14 million. For the campaign, he has exceeded the $10.5 million mark.

But his Democratic opponent, attorney Andrew Janz, brought in over $4 million for the quarter, the only congressional candidate in the US to do so, and an all-time record for a quarter. He still trails Rep. Nunes in overall receipts (Janz posted $7.13 million for the campaign), however. Together, this campaign leads the nation in combined fundraising with over $17 million. For a regular cycle congressional campaign – not including the special elections we saw earlier that became national contests – this, too, is likely an all-time record for a House contest.

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Forecasting the Results – Part II

By Jim Ellis

2018-democrat-house-majority-breakdown-text-graphicOct. 8, 2018 — The Democrats need to convert a net 24 seats to secure a one-seat majority in the US House on Election Day, Nov. 6. Many reports quote the number 23 as what is necessary to win control, but the new Pennsylvania map will yield one seat coming back to the Republicans — the new open 14th District — thus pushing the total up to 24.

As stated Friday, our forecasts listed below are based upon a series of factors, including current polling numbers, voter history, candidate personal and job approval favorability, fundraising, other races on the state ballot that could drive turnout, and outside issues such as the confirmation vote to for Judge Brett Kavanaugh to become a Supreme Court Justice, which could change the turnout model, etc.

According to our new analysis, the Democrats are on the cusp of converting the requisite number of Republican seats to take a bare majority and seeing their caucus become significantly larger. At this point, the Democratic gain range appears to reach 23 on the low side and 35 at the apex.

Looking at the country by state and region, it appears the Democrats will do well in the Midwest, in particular. The Great Lakes region that delivered President Trump his surprise victory appears to be snapping back to the Democrats in the midterm House races. Michigan looks particularly good for them at both the statewide and district levels.

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The Healthcare Air Wars

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 2, 2018 — With the economy performing well, most recent polling finds jobs and taxes often dropping to third place as an answer to the most important issue question. Depending upon the geographic region, immigration ranks as the second most mentioned topic, but almost all now cite healthcare as number one.

(NY-24, Democrat Dana Balter’s healthcare ad)

Therefore, it is not surprising to see campaigns on both sides driving very different healthcare messages.

Democrats are consistently hitting Republicans over their vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act, as the Dems call it, or Obamacare, as is the GOP reference. The Democrat attacks claim that, because of this vote, the Republican House members wanted to rescind insurance coverage for those with pre-existing medical conditions. Lately, they’re adding an attack that Republicans attempted to invoke an “age tax”, claiming that the vote to repeal would have increased insurance costs five-fold for people over 50 years of age.

Republicans are countering that the “Medicare for all” plan that some Democrats advocate will cost $32 trillion dollars and result in a “doubling of the income tax.”

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Will He Stay Or Will He Go?
New Duncan Hunter Poll Released

By Jim Ellis

California Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine)

California Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine)

Oct. 1, 2018 — One of the more interesting asides for the coming election is whether the two indicted congressmen, California’s Duncan Hunter and New York’s Chris Collins, can still win re-election. Since the House partisan division may be close, every seat is of critical importance particularly to Republicans who are attempting to hold their tenuous majority and risk both of these seats.

Monmouth University just released their new poll in California’s 50th Congressional District, testing Rep. Duncan Hunter’s political strength. As you may remember, Hunter is under federal indictment for campaign finance violations.

According to the Monmouth data (Sept. 22-26; 401 potential CA-50 voters who have cast a ballot in at least one of the last four primary or general elections or have newly registered to vote since January 2016), Hunter still has majority support in a district that President Trump carried, 55-40 percent.

Monmouth has been testing different turnout models in all of their latest polls. They look at all registered voters, a standard midterm model, and one that features a “Democratic surge.” In this poll, as in many other Monmouth surveys around the country, the tested Democratic candidate performs better under the registered, or “all voters” model, than under a Democratic surge, so it’s unclear as to the value of the latter test framework.

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NY State Results; The Fox Polls

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 14, 2018 — Gov. Andrew Cuomo, as predicted, easily won the Democratic gubernatorial primary last night with a 65-35 percent victory over actress Cynthia Nixon. Late polling projected the governor to be breaking the 60 percent threshold with Nixon lagging way behind. He will now have little trouble winning a third term in the general election against the new Republican nominee, Duchess County Executive Marc Molinaro.

fox-news-polls-for-key-senate-racesUS Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D-Cold Spring/West Point) quest to become the state’s attorney general ended last night. Despite a late poll suggesting he had forged into the lead, Maloney dropped to third position in the actual vote.

The Democratic primary winner was New York City Public Advocate Letitia James, who said that she “ … can’t wait to wake up each and every day, go to the office, sue somebody and then go home,” in her victory speech and stated that she wants to target President Trump, the NRA, and state corruption, captured 38 percent of the Democratic primary vote.

In second, with 30 percent, was frequent Democratic candidate Zephyr Teachout who challenged Gov. Cuomo back in the 2014 party primary. Rep. Maloney drew only 24 percent. He will now return to the congressional campaign trail since he was re-nominated back in the June federal primary.


THE FOX POLLS

Fox News just released a series of five polls in key US Senate states where they find very close races. Fox conducts its surveys jointly through two research entities, a Democratic polling company, Anderson Robbins Research, and the Republican firm of Shaw & Company Research.

All five studies were conducted during the Sept. 8-11 period. The organizations used the live interview method to conduct their data gathering through a combination of landline and cell phone calls. The polling universes begin with a registered voter pool from which likely voter segments are derived. Results are reported for both the larger and more refined polling cells. In all cases, the candidates’ individual approval ratings differed very little between registered voters and likely voters.

Arizona (801 registered Arizona voters; 710 likely voters)
• Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) has a 47-44 percent edge over Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) among likely voters and 46-42 percent within the broader registered voters universe.
• President Trump’s Arizona job approval rating is 49:49 percent positive to negative. This contrasts with Rep. Sinema’s 52:35 percent index and McSally’s 47:43 percent.

Obviously, the ballot test shows that either candidate can win the race. Rep. McSally has a lesser favorability rating than Rep. Sinema largely because she was attacked in a multi-candidate primary, whereas the latter woman was a consensus Democratic candidate who breezed through the primary without being forced to absorb negative hits.
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Rhode Island Results

By Jim Ellis

RHODE-ISLANDSept. 13, 2018 — The Ocean State conducted the final primary before the general election yesterday, and Gov. Gina Raimondo was successfully re-nominated in the Democratic primary. But her victory margin wasn’t particularly impressive.

Now, all states with the exception of Louisiana have held their federal nomination elections. Because the Bayou State leaders desire a system that allows candidates to win an office in one election – by obtaining majority support – such a procedure is only legally possible when that one election is scheduled concurrently with the regular general vote. For those who fail to achieve majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, advance into a Dec. 8 run-off to determine the final outcome.

In Rhode Island, Gov. Raimondo scored a 57-33 percent re-nomination victory percentage against former Secretary of State Matt Brown, with a turnout basis of just over 116,000 Democratic primary voters. Minor candidate Spencer Dickinson captured the remaining nine percent of the vote. The fact that almost 43 percent of Democratic voters chose a candidate other than their sitting governor is obviously not a good sign for her as Gov. Raimondo now embarks upon a general election campaign.

But her positive spin is that Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, was also the party nominee in 2014, win the Republican primary again last night. His victory percentage last night was virtually the same as the governor’s — about 56.5 percent — but from a small Republican voter base of just under 33,000 individuals. State House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan, who was running to ung’s right, took 40 percent of the GOP vote.

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New Hampshire Results

By Jim Ellis

the-primariesSept. 12, 2018 — The election cycle’s final primary week began yesterday in the Granite State. Tomorrow, Rhode Islanders go to the polls, and on Thursday New Yorkers return to choose state nominees after their federal candidates were selected on June 26.

In the NH governor’s race, former state Sen. Molly Kelly easily defeated ex-Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand to win the Democratic primary. With a turnout of over 100,000 voters, Kelly recorded a 66 percent victory. She will now challenge first-term Gov. Chris Sununu, who was unopposed in the Republican primary.

Two years ago, Sununu, the son of former governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of ex-senator and congressman John E. Sununu, defeated Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern (D), 49-47 percent. With strong approval ratings, Gov. Sununu begins the general election as a decided favorite to defeat Kelly.

The race, billed as the most competitive battle of the day, proved to be less than a nail-biter. Eleven Democrats were battling for the right to succeed retiring Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-Rochester) as the party nominee for an eastern New Hampshire congressional district that has regularly swung back and forth between the parties since 2006.

Last night, Executive Councilor and restaurant owner Chris Pappas rather easily won the Democratic primary, capturing 42 percent of the vote with the remaining 58 percent spread among the remaining 10. As expected, his closest opponent was Maura Sullivan, a strong fundraiser who was a former US Veterans Affairs Department official in the Obama Administration. She scored 30 percent, but no other candidate even reached the 10 percent plateau.

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The Final Primaries

By Jim Ellis

the-primariesSept. 11, 2018 — The last two states to nominate candidates prior to the Nov. 6 general election will host primary elections this week. Voters in New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and New York will go to the polls today, Wednesday, and Thursday, respectively. New York held its federal primary on June 26, but the nominees for state offices will be chosen on Sept. 13.

The Ocean State features the only Wednesday primary in the nation. Two other states voted on a Thursday (Tennessee and Delaware), and one more on a Saturday (Hawaii). All others voted on Tuesdays.

Louisiana will hold its jungle primary concurrently with the Nov. 6 general election. If no candidate receives majority support the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, will run-off on Dec. 8. The other post-general run-off will occur in Mississippi. If no candidate receives majority support in the Nov. 6 special US Senate election the top two finishers, again irrespective of party affiliation, will advance to a secondary Nov. 27 election.


NEW HAMPSHIRE

First-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R) runs for a second term even though he was just elected in 2016. New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the remaining two states that hold a gubernatorial vote in every regular general election.

The governor is unopposed in tomorrow’s Republican primary, while Democrats feature a battle between former state Sen. Molly Kelly and ex-Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand. Kelly is favored for the party nomination, but Gov. Sununu will begin the general election as a heavy favorite. Politically, New Hampshire has swung more wildly than any state for a decade, so any result is possible here.

The big attraction is the open 1st Congressional District, a seat that has defeated more incumbents than any in the nation since 2006. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-Rochester) originally won this seat in 2006. She then lost (2010), won (2012), lost (2014), and won again (2016). Now, she is retiring.

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Collins & Hunter Indictments:
The Political Status

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 24, 2018 — The news media has heavily covered the indictment proceedings against New York Rep. Chris Collins (R-Clarence/Batavia) and California Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) and though the legal process will drag on for some time against both men, their political situations will be resolved much sooner.

Both NY-27 and CA-50 are safe Republican seats, neither of which were major Democratic targets. News stories had been circulating that indictments were possible for both men, and safe republican districts california new yorkparticularly so of Rep. Hunter, but neither seat would have fallen into play without the legal flap. Now, the Republicans are even in danger of being shut out from what are typically safe GOP seats, just when their precarious majority is hanging in the balance.

When his insider trading indictment was announced, Rep. Collins’ first reaction was to continue running for re-election. But he quickly changed his mind and announced his intention to withdraw from the race. The problem is New York election law doesn’t allow party nominees such an easy out.

Since the NY federal primary has passed, there are only three ways a candidate can pull his or her name from the ballot.

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New York Polling Data:
Gov. Cuomo & Rep. Maloney

By Jim Ellis

July 20, 2018
— Though New Yorkers have already gone to the polls to choose their federal nominees, they must return on Sept. 13 to vote for their final state candidates. The Empire State is the only domain in the country that conducts separate primaries for federal and then state and local offices.

Actress Cynthia Nixon & New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D)

Actress Cynthia Nixon & New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo

With that in mind, Gov. Andrew Cuomo faces Democratic primary opposition against a well-known candidate who will appear on the general election ballot regardless of what happens on Sept. 13. Actress Cynthia Nixon is challenging the governor for the party nomination, but a new poll suggests that she is actually losing ground as the campaign progresses.

In a statewide race that might affect a congressional campaign, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring/West Point), after winning the Democratic nomination for re-election on June 26, announced that he would enter the open Sept. 13 primary for state attorney general. If he is successful in winning the party nomination, Maloney says he will end his congressional campaign. This will force the local Democratic leadership from the four counties that combine to form the 18th Congressional District to convene and choose a new nominee with barely a month remaining in the general election cycle.

With this background, Quinnipiac University comes forth with their latest New York survey (July 12-16; 934 registered New York voters, 415 likely New York Democratic primary voters). The pollsters see Gov. Cuomo expanding his Democratic primary advantage over Nixon. According to the May Q-Poll, Cuomo led Nixon 50-28 percent. In their new July study, the governor posts a stronger 59-23 percent margin, meaning a net gain of 14 percentage points. Because Nixon controls the Working Families Party ballot line, however, she will advance to the general election no matter what happens in the September state Democratic primary.

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Examining The Tuesday Turnout

By Jim Ellis

the-primariesJune 29, 2018 — In continuing the effort to monitor primary turnout as a potential indicator of how the general election may unfold and whether a Democratic wave is forming, today we examine the preliminary participation numbers from the June 26 primaries.

Previously, in the 26 states where primaries were held, it appears that a normal turnout pattern had developed. Generally, more Democrats were voting in the states that typically vote Democratic, while more Republicans participated in those places where Republican candidates win the greater number of offices. In the five pure primary (non-run-off) states that held primaries on Tuesday, such a pattern continued. Utah was not included in the following analysis because the state did not feature any political contest where both Democrats and Republicans held a primary vote.

Democrats decisively turned out more people in Maryland (the Senate Democratic primary attracted 560,477 votes while the Republicans only produced 169,047), as one would expect, since the Free State is one of the strongest Democratic entities in the country. Conversely, more Republicans than Democrats voted in the Oklahoma primary (452,194 to 395,038 in the gubernatorial race), and that ratio, too, was anticipated.

Colorado, generally considered a swing state but one moving toward the Democrats in most elections, again saw more Democrats participating in Tuesday’s election. In the open governor’s race, 627,839 Democrats voted in the gubernatorial primary as compared to 493,445 Republicans. Once more, these numbers are predictable and represent a rather normal voter turnout pattern.

While talk of a “blue wave” continues and polls continue to show that more Democrats are interested and enthused about the coming midterm elections in the fall, such is not apparent in actual voting behavior within the two largest and most prolific Democratic states. In California, as we previously reported, while more Democrats than Republicans voted in the statewide jungle primary, in the seven targeted congressional districts more people voted for Republican candidates in six of those seven.

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Rep. Crowley Gone? Not So Fast . . .
Our Seven-State Primary Breakdown

By Jim Ellis

Democrat-Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Democrat-Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

June 27, 2018 — In the surprise of last night’s voting, 10-term Rep. Joe Crowley (D-Queens), the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and the Queens County Democratic Party, lost his Democratic re-nomination battle to self-proclaimed Democrat-Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez last night, but he may not be finished. Since Rep. Crowley has already secured the Working Families and Women’s Equality Party ballot lines, he also advances into the general election.

While Ms. Ocasio-Cortez will command the Democratic line and college professor Anthony Pappas has the Republican position, the independent and minor parties will play a major role in this 14th District general election. With independent filing deadlines still to come, much can happen before the Nov. 6 ballot is actually finalized. At this point, Elizabeth Perri has the Conservative Party line and James Dillon the Reform Party designation. But, with Crowley and Ocasio-Cortez presumably doing battle for all of the left-of-center votes, suddenly the right-of-center lines become more valuable. A unifying of the three lines under one candidate, which is still possible, would allow a single, more conservative contender to be more competitive in this new situation.

The 14th Democratic primary turnout was low, what looks to be about 28,000 votes when all are counted, and Ocasio-Cortez received 57.5 percent compared to Rep. Crowley’s 42.5 percent. Interestingly, Crowley is the chairman of the Queens County Democratic Party, which gives him control over how the party will spend it money to support its new nominees, including Ocasio-Cortez.

The 14th CD contains parts of Queens and The Bronx, including the communities of Flushing (part), Throgs Neck, Jackson Heights, and College Point. The citizen age voting population is 39.9 percent Latino, 31.6 percent, Non-Hispanic White, 14.5 percent Asian, and 13.9 percent African American. The general election campaign becomes interesting to say the least.


COLORADO

The Centennial State vote went as expected. In the governor’s race, Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) defeated a series of four candidates to win the Democratic nomination and advance into the general election. He scored a 45-25-23-7 percent victory over former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, the official party endorsed candidate, ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston, and Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne. Polis will now face state Treasurer Walker Stapleton, who won the Republican nomination, defeating former state Rep. Victor Mitchell and two others. The open general election will be competitive. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In the House races, also as expected, former University of Colorado Regent Joe Neguse easily won the Democratic primary and becomes a prohibitive favorite to replace Rep. Polis in the US House.

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Today’s Primaries

By Jim Ellis

June 26, 2018 — Five more states vote in nominating primaries or run-off elections today — Colorado, Oklahoma, South Carolina (run-off), the New York federal primary and the Utah races.

the-primariesCOLORADO

Leading the Centennial State ballot is the open governor’s race, which feature spirited contests for both parties. The Democratic race is largely between US Rep Jared Polis (D-Boulder) and former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, the officially endorsed party candidate. Polling suggests that Rep. Polis has the advantage, even though Kennedy is the party insider’s favorite. Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne, and former state Sen. Mike Johnston complete the Democratic field.

For the Republicans, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton, the officially endorsed party candidate, looks to be leading the GOP battle for the nomination. His strongest competition appears to be coming from former state representative and businessman Victor Mitchell. Former Small Business Administration state director and ex-Parker Mayor Greg Lopez, and investment banker Doug Robinson round out the Republican field. The individuals nominated today will battle to succeed outgoing Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), who is ineligible to seek a third term.

The open 2nd District campaign will be waged in the Democratic primary, with today’s winner being a lock to succeed Rep. Polis. Ex-University of Colorado Regent Joe Neguse is favored over former Boulder County Democratic Party chairman Mark Williams.

Democrats are fielding a primary campaign in what is commonly known as the “western slope district,” where three party members are fighting for the nomination to challenge four-term Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez). Former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush, ex-Glenwood Springs City Attorney Karl Hanlon, and former Eagle County Commissioner Arn Menconi are the Democratic contenders with Bush commonly viewed as the favorite. Rep. Tipton will be favored in the general election.

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The Coming New Specials

By Jim Ellis

May 1, 2018 — Just when we thought the number of special elections was lessening when Debbie Lesko won the AZ-8 election last week to replace resigned Arizona Rep. Trent Franks (R-Peoria), new vacancies are popping up.

Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Chadds Ford), abruptly resigned Friday.

Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Chadds Ford), abruptly resigned Friday.

On Friday, Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Chadds Ford), who had previously announced his retirement for term’s end, abruptly resigned when learning the House Ethics Committee was going to launch an investigation into the severance payment awarded to one of his staff employees. The source of this particular recompense was the special taxpayer funded congressional account found to cover members’ special staff settlements.

Meehan also pledged to repay the $39,000 payment that is the investigation’s basis within the next 30 days. Now that Meehan has exited the House, the Ethics Committee no longer has jurisdiction. He joins former Texas Congressman Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) who resigned in early April also to avoid a congressional investigation.

Oklahoma Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Tulsa) resigned his seat in late April to accept his position in the Trump Administration as the new NASA Administrator. Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Allentown) says he will resign his seat at an unspecified date in early May, presumably because he will be accepting a position in the private sector. As we know, the late New York Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-Rochester) passed away on March 16.

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