Tag Archives: Mitt Romney

Is Michigan Rep. Justin Amash
Seeking a Political Exit Strategy Should He Run for President?

By Jim Ellis

Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids)

June 13, 2019 — The Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS) released an independent poll just a couple days ago from the Practical Political Consultants organization (June 5-9; 335 likely MI-3 Republican primary voters) that finds western Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) trailing his announced 3rd Congressional District Republican primary opponent, state Rep. James Lower (R-Greenville), by a lopsided 49-33 percent count.

After Rep. Amash became the only Republican to side with the Democrats’ informal impeachment caucus over whether to bring proceedings against President Trump, speculation became more rampant that the five-term Michigan congressman would seek the Libertarian nomination for president. The new poll and his action earlier in the week of resigning from the Freedom Caucus and its leadership fuels more speculation that he will jump into the presidential contest.

Many are arguing that Amash would have an effect upon the national election to the point of potentially costing President Trump victory, or at the very least, the state of Michigan, but such an outcome is far from determined.

The Libertarian presidential nomination has some value in that the party can qualify for the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It is the only political entity aside from the Republican and Democratic parties that has such an ability. Jill Stein, the 2016 and 2012 Green Party presidential nominee, appeared on the ballot in 45 and 38 states, respectively.

However, just how much of a factor are the individuals who represent the minor parties on the presidential ballot? Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson was the Libertarian nominee in both 2016 and 2012. He has already said he will not be a candidate in 2020. In 2012, his national vote total was 1.27 million. Four years later, his aggregate vote number soared to just under 4.5 million. But, was that due to Johnson himself, or is the Libertarian ballot position, regardless of the candidate’s name associated with it, simply the best place for disaffected voters to cast a ballot?

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NC-3: Republicans Generate a Run-off, While Democrats Have a Nominee

By Jim Ellis

North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District

May 1, 2019 — Almost 69,000 eastern North Carolina voters cast ballots in the special Republican and Democratic primaries yesterday to choose a successor to the late Rep. Walter Jones (R-Farmville) who passed away in February.

Since Republicans featured a field of 17 candidates, it appeared obvious that no one would reach the 30 percent threshold necessary to nominate. That proved to be true, and second-place finisher, Joan Perry, confirmed last night that she will petition the NC Board of Elections for a run-off election. Perry, a Kinston area physician in Lenoir County, will face state Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville), another physician and first-place finisher, in a secondary Republican nomination election to be scheduled for July 9.

The Democrats, on the other hand, chose their nominee last night. Former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas easily captured the party nod garnering just over 50 percent of the vote, 20 percentage points more than he needed. He defeated retired Marine Corps Colonel Richard Bew (25.2 percent), New Bern Mayor Dana Outlaw (12.6 percent), and three minor candidates. none of whom reached double-digit support. Thomas now directly advances to the Sept. 10 special general election.

Rep. Murphy took advantage of his Greenville base, the largest population center in the 3rd District that encompasses most of coastal North Carolina, including the Outer Banks region. Dr. Murphy scored 22.5 percent of the vote, or 9,507 votes. Dr. Perry, with support from outside national and state pro-life organizations, drew 15.4 percent translating into 6,515 votes.

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NC-3 Special Election Today

By Jim Ellis

North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District

April 30, 2019 — The first ballots in the three special congressional elections will be cast in today’s primary election in North Carolina’s 3rd District. By tonight, we will have some semblance of order among the 17 Republican candidates and six Democrats.

The passing of veteran Rep. Walter Jones (R-Farmville) in February precipitated this election with the eventual winner serving the balance of the 13-term congressman’s final legislative session. In November, Jones was unopposed for re-election.

Of the 17 Republicans, only seven candidates had even raised $100,000 by the April 10 filing deadline or have substantial outside backing. In fact, two of the three sitting state Representatives didn’t even make the $100,000 threshold. Three candidates are getting outside support from conservative organizations.

For the Democrats, two candidates exceeded the $100,000 mark for a district race that the party nominee hasn’t won since 1992. Former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas and retired Marine Corps Colonel Richard Bew are the pair who have done so, with Thomas more than doubling Col. Bew’s financial assets.

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Biden’s Strong Rebound, and a
Michigan Senate Surprise

By Jim Ellis

March 21, 2019 — Earlier this week, Emerson College Polling released a survey of Wisconsin Democrats that found Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leading former Vice President Joe Biden, 39-24 percent, but an even newer Emerson offering detects that the tables have already turned.

According to the latest Emerson Michigan poll (March 7-10; 743 registered Michigan voters; 317 likely Michigan Democratic presidential primary voters), it is Biden who is claiming 40 percent support within the Democratic sample, while Sen. Sanders pulls 23 percent. As is the case with the Wisconsin poll, California Sen. Kamala Harris is third, well back with 12 percent, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) follows with 11 percent. All others fall into low single digits. New entry Beto O’Rourke was not included on the survey questionnaire.

The results are not surprising. Biden has long been a favorite of the private sector unions, which are a strong force in Michigan politics. Additionally, President Obama, with Biden on the ticket, ran strongly here. In 2012, he defeated Mitt Romney, 54-45 percent. The former Republican nominee’s father, George Romney, is a past governor of Michigan. Four years earlier, Obama’s margin over John McCain was an even greater 57-41 percent.

Michigan is an important state on the Democratic nomination circuit, eighth largest of the 57 voting entities. Currently scheduled for a March 10 primary, the Wolverine State is awarded 125 elected delegates, ballooning to an aggregate 147 when Super Delegates are added to the total. The Super Delegates, or party leaders, may not vote on the first ballot, but are eligible if more than one roll call becomes necessary.

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PA-12 NOMINEE KELLER IMMEDIATELY HITS OPPONENT, PELOSI, SANDERS, CORTEZ

Pennsylvania Congressional Map | Source: Pennsylvania State Supreme Court (click on image to see full size)

By Jim Ellis

Pennsylvania state Rep. Fred Keller
(R-Mifflinburg)

March 5, 2019 — On Saturday, during a seven-hour marathon special district convention marked with controversy, the central Pennsylvania Republican delegates chose state Rep. Fred Keller (R-Mifflinburg) as the party nominee for 12th District Congressman Tom Marino’s (R-Williamsport) vacated seat. Marino resigned from the House at the end of January due to professional and health reasons.

Gov. Tom Wolf (D) scheduled the replacement special election for May 21. Under Pennsylvania election law, the various political parties call a district convention or meeting for purposes of choosing a special election nominee. Originally, 24 potential Republican candidates expressed interest in running, but only 14 were successful in having their names placed into nomination before the 200-plus assembled delegates.

After Rep. Marino’s unexpected announcement, Democrats responded quickly and re-nominated their 2018 candidate, local college professor Marc Friedenberg, who advances into the special general election hoping to perform better than he did against Marino. In November, Friedenberg lost 66-34 percent while spending just over $90,000 on his federal campaign.

Saturday’s convention became controversial once the Club for Growth organization began sending mailers to the delegates attacking state Rep. Jeff Wheeland (R-Williamsport), over his record on tax issues as a legislator first elected in 2014. Prior to gathering in Williamsport, Wheeland appeared as the candidate most likely to become the delegates’ choice.

But, the convention was rocked when the representative’s stepson distributed a letter detailing how Wheeland abused he and his mother. The combination attack was enough to drive Wheeland from the race just before the fourth ballot, yielding the victory for Keller.

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