Feb. 1, 2019 — One of the principle reasons the 2018 US House elections evolved from a close Democratic majority to a rout was the California results. The Sacramento Bee newspaper just published an article that Capitol reporter Kate Irby wrote (Jan. 29, 2019; updated Jan. 30, 2019), which provides part of the explanation as to why so many Golden State congressional seats flipped from R to D: seven to be exact. (See Irby’s article here: ‘Trump effect:’ California Latino voters showed up in force in 2018. Will they do it again?)
One major reason, according to the statistics derived from the Political Data Inc. firm and the California Civic Engagement Project at the University of Southern California research is the increased number of Hispanic votes in each of the seven districts in question.
The key finding in all seven of the flipped districts, is the Hispanic vote percentage generally equaled that of a presidential election and was substantially higher than from the previous midterm election (2014).
Additionally, most of the districts saw a significant increase in Hispanic population since 2014, meaning an even greater raw number of voters when adding the increased turnout percentage. When reading the Hispanic figures remember that approximately two-thirds of that particular vote segment, at a minimum, was cast for the Democratic candidate.
Below are the findings:
CA-10: (Modesto, Tracy, Turlock)
New Member: Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) Former Member: Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Turlock)
Harder: 119,945 – 52.3%
Denham: 105,955 – 47.7%
Denham 2016 Vote: 124,671 – 51.7%
Difference from 2016: 18,716
Hispanic Vote Base:
2018: 26% 2014: 18%
2018: 58% 2016: 68%
Raw Number Hispanic Registered Voters:
2018: 91,132 2014: 53,602
Raw Number Hispanic Turnout:
2018: 52,857 2014: 15,555
Increased Hispanic Raw Number Vote from 2014 to 2018: 37,302
In conducting a nationwide poll for McClatchy Newspapers, Marist College (NY) found, rather extraordinarily, that three of their top four Republican nomination ballot test finishers are not even official candidates. The poll, conducted over the June 15-23 period of 1,003 adults (801 registered voters; 308 self-identified Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents), placed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in first position with 19 percent – yet another national survey where the ostensible front-runner doesn’t top 20 percent – while former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Texas Gov. Rick Perry follow with 13 percent apiece. Former vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin finishes fourth with 11 percent and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) is next with 8 percent. All other candidates are in mid to low single digits.
Neither Giuliani, Perry, nor Palin are announced candidates. It is believed that the former mayor will enter the race, probably after the September 11 10-year anniversary memorials are concluded. Signs are pointing to Gov. Perry also becoming a candidate, but not for several more weeks. Question marks continue to surround Ms. Palin’s plans, though there is no evidence that she is taking tangible steps toward building a campaign operation.
The fact that no active candidate other than Mr. Romney cracks the top four suggests dissatisfaction with the current field of candidates, as evidenced by the non-candidates doing so well. Expect the GOP field to change significantly during the latter half of this year.
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