Tag Archives: Maryland

Electoral Vote Compact Takes a Hit

By Jim Ellis

June 3, 2019 — Recently, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) spoke one of her strongest applause lines on the presidential campaign trail, when she talked about eliminating the Electoral College. And the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact organization had been gaining significant energy when Colorado, Delaware, and New Mexico officially joined its ranks earlier this year. But, that momentum hit a major roadblock yesterday.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, or NPVIC, began soon after the 2000 presidential election when Democratic nominee Al Gore won the popular vote count but fell to George W. Bush in the Electoral College. The result marked the first time since the 1888 election when the popular vote winner failed to win the presidency.

By 2007, Maryland became the first state to officially join the NPVIC. Today, 14 states are Compact members, representing 189 Electoral Votes. The organization’s stated goal is to recruit enough states to equal a majority of 270 EVs that will agree the respective members will deliver its Electors to the national popular vote winner regardless of how their own electorate votes.

However, the Maine House of Representatives, on a 76-66 vote, defeated legislation late last week to add their state to the growing NPVIC organization. And, Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D), in a surprise move to some, vetoed the compact legislation that had reached his desk. Earlier in the Oregon legislative session, the state Senate passed its bill to join the compact and action is awaited in the House before the legislative session’s scheduled end on June 21.

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National Early Voting Report

By Jim Ellis

i-vote-i-countOct. 31, 2018 — Now more than halfway through the early voting period in the 37 states that offer early voting options for the populace, some places are turning in record participation rates. Each state has various nuances in their early voting procedures, so comparing the early reports to each other is of little value. Going back to contrast the current 2018 reported numbers with how that particular state voted in the last midterm election (2014) does have significance, however.

Already, in the latest available reports according to the United States Election Project administered by the personnel at the University of Florida, seven states are reporting more received early voting ballots than were recorded for the entire 2014 pre-election period. They are:

• Tennessee – 162.3% more ballots (1,029,846 versus 634,364 recorded in 2014)
• Texas – 144.3% increase (2,980,915 versus 2,066,368 recorded in 2014)
• Indiana – 127.9% increase (292,726 versus 228,932 recorded in 2014)
• Nevada – 122.5% increase (372,455 versus 304,005 recorded in 2014)
• Georgia – 111.1% increase (1,188,636 versus 1,069,912 recorded in 2014)
• Minnesota – 106.0% increase (249,909 versus 235,808 recorded in 2014)
• Delaware – 103.2% more ballots (8,550 versus 8,288 recorded in 2014)


An additional seven states have so far recorded better than 85 percent of their early voting total in comparison to their entire 2014 pre-election voting universe:

• North Carolina – 97.1% of previous (1,140,657 versus 1,174,188 recorded in 2014)
• Virginia – 94.2% of previous total (191,755 versus 203,556 recorded in 2014)
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Recapping the US House Open Seats — Part I: Arizona through Minnesota

By Jim Ellis

the-primariesJuly 6, 2018 — Last Saturday’s election of Republican Michael Cloud (R-Victoria) to fill the vacant southeast Texas district (TX-27; Farenthold resignation) reduced the total number of open House seats from 65 to 64. Within that group, 42 seats are currently Republican held, 21 are Democratic; one seat is new, created by Pennsylvania redistricting and left open when Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) decided to run in a paired incumbent race with Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Sewickley) instead of opting for the new Republican-dominated western Pennsylvania CD-14.

Among the 63 House members who have either passed away, resigned, lost their primaries, or are not seeking re-election, 23 chose to run for another office. Some of their political fates are decided, while others remain active campaigners. We we’ll look at those who became candidates for other offices and report on their current status. Today we’ll examine Arizona through Minnesota. On Monday we’ll review Nevada through West Virginia.

Arizona 2 & 9: Reps. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) are both running for the Senate and may oppose each other in the open general election. Rep. McSally is engaged in a three-way Republican primary that will be decided on Aug. 28. Rep. Sinema is the consensus Democratic Senate nominee. Polling shows McSally as the favorite to win the Republican nomination. Early general election pairings find Sinema leading the race from 7-11 points.


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Examining The Tuesday Turnout

By Jim Ellis

the-primariesJune 29, 2018 — In continuing the effort to monitor primary turnout as a potential indicator of how the general election may unfold and whether a Democratic wave is forming, today we examine the preliminary participation numbers from the June 26 primaries.

Previously, in the 26 states where primaries were held, it appears that a normal turnout pattern had developed. Generally, more Democrats were voting in the states that typically vote Democratic, while more Republicans participated in those places where Republican candidates win the greater number of offices. In the five pure primary (non-run-off) states that held primaries on Tuesday, such a pattern continued. Utah was not included in the following analysis because the state did not feature any political contest where both Democrats and Republicans held a primary vote.

Democrats decisively turned out more people in Maryland (the Senate Democratic primary attracted 560,477 votes while the Republicans only produced 169,047), as one would expect, since the Free State is one of the strongest Democratic entities in the country. Conversely, more Republicans than Democrats voted in the Oklahoma primary (452,194 to 395,038 in the gubernatorial race), and that ratio, too, was anticipated.

Colorado, generally considered a swing state but one moving toward the Democrats in most elections, again saw more Democrats participating in Tuesday’s election. In the open governor’s race, 627,839 Democrats voted in the gubernatorial primary as compared to 493,445 Republicans. Once more, these numbers are predictable and represent a rather normal voter turnout pattern.

While talk of a “blue wave” continues and polls continue to show that more Democrats are interested and enthused about the coming midterm elections in the fall, such is not apparent in actual voting behavior within the two largest and most prolific Democratic states. In California, as we previously reported, while more Democrats than Republicans voted in the statewide jungle primary, in the seven targeted congressional districts more people voted for Republican candidates in six of those seven.

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Rep. Crowley Gone? Not So Fast . . .
Our Seven-State Primary Breakdown

By Jim Ellis

Democrat-Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Democrat-Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

June 27, 2018 — In the surprise of last night’s voting, 10-term Rep. Joe Crowley (D-Queens), the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and the Queens County Democratic Party, lost his Democratic re-nomination battle to self-proclaimed Democrat-Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez last night, but he may not be finished. Since Rep. Crowley has already secured the Working Families and Women’s Equality Party ballot lines, he also advances into the general election.

While Ms. Ocasio-Cortez will command the Democratic line and college professor Anthony Pappas has the Republican position, the independent and minor parties will play a major role in this 14th District general election. With independent filing deadlines still to come, much can happen before the Nov. 6 ballot is actually finalized. At this point, Elizabeth Perri has the Conservative Party line and James Dillon the Reform Party designation. But, with Crowley and Ocasio-Cortez presumably doing battle for all of the left-of-center votes, suddenly the right-of-center lines become more valuable. A unifying of the three lines under one candidate, which is still possible, would allow a single, more conservative contender to be more competitive in this new situation.

The 14th Democratic primary turnout was low, what looks to be about 28,000 votes when all are counted, and Ocasio-Cortez received 57.5 percent compared to Rep. Crowley’s 42.5 percent. Interestingly, Crowley is the chairman of the Queens County Democratic Party, which gives him control over how the party will spend it money to support its new nominees, including Ocasio-Cortez.

The 14th CD contains parts of Queens and The Bronx, including the communities of Flushing (part), Throgs Neck, Jackson Heights, and College Point. The citizen age voting population is 39.9 percent Latino, 31.6 percent, Non-Hispanic White, 14.5 percent Asian, and 13.9 percent African American. The general election campaign becomes interesting to say the least.


COLORADO

The Centennial State vote went as expected. In the governor’s race, Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) defeated a series of four candidates to win the Democratic nomination and advance into the general election. He scored a 45-25-23-7 percent victory over former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, the official party endorsed candidate, ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston, and Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne. Polis will now face state Treasurer Walker Stapleton, who won the Republican nomination, defeating former state Rep. Victor Mitchell and two others. The open general election will be competitive. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In the House races, also as expected, former University of Colorado Regent Joe Neguse easily won the Democratic primary and becomes a prohibitive favorite to replace Rep. Polis in the US House.

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