Tag Archives: Mariannette Miller-Meeks

It’s Now Down to Three

By Jim Ellis

David Valadao (R)

Nov. 24, 2020 — Unofficial victory projections are being made for California’s 21st Congressional District in favor of Republican former Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford). It is becoming clearer as more mail votes are being counted and the pool of remaining ballots diminishes to under 10,000, that Valadao has defeated freshman Rep. T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) in one of the few remaining undetermined congressional campaigns.

Real Clear Politics, the Cook Political Report, and the local Fresno Bee newspaper are all reporting that Valadao has won the race, though the former Congressman himself has yet to declare victory and Cox has not conceded defeat.

Valadao, who previously served three terms in the House after his original election in 2012 before losing to Rep. Cox in a tight 862-vote margin two years ago, currently leads the 2020 outcome by 1,618 tabulations.

Cox has attracted 58.5 percent of the vote in Kern County, the district’s largest population entity, but with approximately 9,000-11,000 votes remaining at most even such a large percentage will likely leave him over 1,000 tallies short of Valadao’s total. Over 1,500 votes remain in Kings County, in which the Republican recorded 62.1 percent support. Tulare County, which finds only eight percent of the voting population contained within the congressional district, split almost evenly between the two men as Cox leads there by just 21 votes. Fresno County has fully reported.

The Valadao victory means the Republicans have now gained a net 10 seats with three races remaining outstanding. A fourth undetermined race, that in Louisiana’s 5th CD, is going to a post-election runoff on Dec. 5. While the winning candidate is yet unidentified, the secondary election is between two Republican candidates, former congressional aide Luke Letlow and state Rep. Lance Harris (R-Alexandria), so the GOP is assured of holding the seat.

Also, in California, freshman Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) is claiming to have won the north Los Angeles/Ventura County 25th District. Though only leading by exactly 400 votes with what looks to be in the neighborhood of 4,500 ballots waiting for verification and counting, this razor-thin race looks to be coming down to the final few ballots.

Democratic opponent Christy Smith, a first-term state assemblywoman, accused Rep. Garcia’s victory declaration as being “dangerous to our democratic process.” She then immediately filed a 2022 congressional committee with the Federal Elections Commission. Therefore, if Garcia does in fact win the contest, it appears we will see the third edition of a Garcia-Smith campaign two years from now.

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Outstanding Races Near Conclusions

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 23, 2020 — We are now down to four undetermined US House campaigns and one that will go to a double Republican runoff on Dec. 5.

Last week, the NJ-7 race that was called for Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill) on election night but rescinded when the post-election votes were drawing state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) close to dead heat range, has now culminated. Again, Rep. Malinowski was determined to be the winner when the number of uncounted votes became less than the margin between the two candidates.

The open 5th District in Louisiana is headed to a Dec. 5 runoff election. Here, Republicans Luke Letlow and state Rep. Lance Harris (R-Alexandria) will battle to replace retiring Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto). Since both finalists are Republicans, the GOP keeping this seat is not in doubt.

The Iowa 2nd District race between state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa) and former state senator and 2018 lieutenant governor nominee Rita Hart (D) continues in full recount. Miller-Meeks had a 47-vote lead as the recount began. Under Iowa law, the leader has been certified as the winner, but that would change should the recount produce a different result.

Hart filed recount petitions in all of the district’s 24 counties. The various election officials have 18 days to complete their additional canvass, which means we should see a conclusion here sometime near Dec. 1.

In New York, counting continues in the 22nd District where former US Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) continues to lead freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica) by a relatively substantial margin as the number of uncounted ballots slowly dwindles. The latest count finds the former congresswoman and ex-state Assembly member leading Rep. Brindisi by 10,967 votes according to the CNN count, which appears to have the most updated data.

Almost 292,000 ballots have been counted with an estimated 26,000-plus votes remaining. To overcome the difference, Rep. Brindisi would have to attract approximately 71 percent of the outstanding ballots. In the 2016 election, 296,086 individuals voted in the congressional race. Therefore, if the estimated outstanding total of 26,000-plus is near correct, then turnout would have increased approximately nine percent from the last presidential election turnout model when compared to the current vote.

In the last group of approximately 25,000 votes, Congressman Brindisi garnered closer to 68 percent in reducing Tenney’s lead from 21,812 votes to the current number. Unless the remaining ballots are even more Democratic than the latest batch, Tenney will likely remain in the lead and soon claim victory.

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Calls, Uncalled, and a Recount

By Jim Ellis

New York state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (R) wins the US House Staten Island District.

Nov. 13, 2020 — With the presidential race heading to the courts in order to resolve challenges and outstanding legal issues, and the final two Senate races advancing to Jan. 5 runoff elections in Georgia, we find the most recent relevant political action occurring in the outstanding US House races.

Two more congressional race winners have been officially called. In New York, Staten Island freshman Rep. Max Rose (D) yesterday publicly conceded defeat to state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (R). While the counting substantial numbers of mail ballots continues, Malliotakis’ large 37,000-plus vote lead appears strong enough to defend against any last minute Rose charge.

The congressman indicated that he is conceding even though the vote gap is closing between he and Assemblywoman Malliotakis, a former New York City mayoral candidate. Rose stated his late-breaking progress would not be enough to overcome Malliotakis’ overall lead, thus he ends the race before the counting process concludes.

The Republican win boosts the party’s national gain total to a net seven official seats, but that number is likely to expand to at least nine and could go as high as a dozen once all of the races are completed and officially certified.

For the Democrats, Illinois freshman Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) also capped her come-from-behind victory with an official call yesterday. After trailing for most of the counting period, Underwood surpassed state senator and frequent candidate Jim Oberweis (R) to secure a second term. Her unofficial margin is 4,604 votes from a turnout of just over 396,000 individuals, a record participation factor for this Chicago suburban district.

While other races are being called, one contest that had been declared on election night is now coming back into the undetermined realm. Originally, New Jersey freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill) had been projected the winner over state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. (R), but now the Associated Press and New York Times have rescinded their victory calls. The reason is the post-election vote totals continue to favor Kean to a large degree, cutting the congressman’s lead to only 6,275 ballots with potentially as many as 60,000 votes remaining to be counted.

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