Tag Archives: Laura Kelly

The Wild Kansas Senate Race

By Jim Ellis

July 21, 2020 — As we approach the Aug. 4 primaries, it’s clear that the Kansas Senate Republican primary will be the top attraction of that election day. An intra-party nomination clash in what should be a relatively safe open-seat campaign has devolved into a mixed-message political brawl.

Embattled Kansas Senate Republican candidate Kris Kobach

Just in the past month we’ve seen Democratic money coming into the Sunflower State in an attempt to influence the Republican primary, and national Republican money making an appearance trying to destroy the former GOP gubernatorial nominee. Furthermore, a well-healed third Republican candidate was being described as a multi-million dollar plumber who contributes more to Democrats. And, yesterday we saw a new ad with a candidate saying that it’s really “a badge of honor” that the Democrats are now attacking him because they’re afraid to face him in the general election.

When veteran Sen. Pat Roberts (R) announced his retirement last year, 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach, fresh from running the disastrous Presidential Commission on Election Integrity that yielded no results before being disbanded, jumped into the Senate race. Because Kobach ran such a poor gubernatorial campaign and virtually handed the office to then-Democratic state senator Laura Kelly two years ago, Republican leaders were fearful of him becoming the Senate nominee. Democrats were also seeing early polling numbers indicating that they could beat Kobach while other Republicans were faring much better in general election ballot test pairings.

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Kansas Beginning to Hop

By Jim Ellis

June 1, 2020 — The open Kansas Senate race is more interesting this year than typical for what is normally a safe Republican state; in fact, it is becoming one of the most intriguing races in the country.

Former Kansas secretary of state and 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach

Democrats believe they have a chance of stealing this contest if former Kansas secretary of state and 2018 defeated gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach were to win the GOP nomination. And it appears that early polling numbers and even the Kansas Republican Party chairman agree.

Things started to unravel back in the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary when Kobach, then the sitting Kansas secretary of state, challenged Gov. Jeff Colyer in the party nominating contest and managed to beat him by 343 votes from more than 317,000 ballots cast. Colyer ascended to the governor’s office when elected incumbent Sam Brownback (R) resigned to accept a federal position.

The outcome split the already badly divided Kansas Republican Party – fragmented between moderates and conservatives – and coupled with a lackluster, while some say non-existent, Kobach general election gubernatorial campaign effort, Democrat Laura Kelly was able to win the statewide contest 48-43 percent with nine percent going to various minor party candidates.

Democrats are hyped because of that outcome, and Republicans clearly nervous. After months of speculation that US secretary of state and former Kansas congressman Mike Pompeo would leave his position and enter the Senate contest, the party leadership is now solidly coalescing around US Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend). Republican Party chairman Mike Kuckelman last week even publicly called upon all of the candidates beside Rep. Marshall to exit the race in order to give the congressman a one-on-one shot at denying Kobach the party nomination.

Yesterday, state Senate President Susan Wagle (R-Wichita) announced she would end her Senate quest, stating among other reasons that she did not want to split the party. Kuckelman believes that that crowded field would help Kobach win the nomination because he could do so with a plurality vote, fearing that his hard-right base may be enough to win a crowded field race.

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The Aug. 7 Primaries – Part I

By Jim Ellis

the-primariesAug. 6, 2018 — The Aug. 7 primaries that arrive tomorrow decide important nomination campaigns in Kansas, Michigan, and Washington; the Missouri political card is already virtually set. Today, we look at Kansas and Missouri, followed tomorrow by Michigan and Washington.

KANSAS

The Sunflower State governor’s race is the key feature in the Republican primary, as Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) appears to be struggling to cobble together a victory coalition in tomorrow’s primary election. Colyer ascended to the governorship when incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback (R) accepted a position in the Trump Administration. Colyer is attempting to repel a strong challenge coming from activist conservative Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who is leading in the latest polling.

According to the Trafalgar Group (July 30-Aug. 2; 1,546 likely Kansas Republican primary voters), Gov. Colyer trails Secretary Kobach, 43-36 percent. But the Remington Research Group, polling in the same period (Aug. 2; 859 likely Kansas Republican primary voters), sees a tie between the two men with both attracting 32 percent support. Former state Sen. Jim Barnett and State Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer are at or below 13 percent preference in both polls.

Democrats also see a multi-candidate campaign, and it appears that state Sen. Laura Kelly (D-Topeka), the party activists’ favorite, is positioned to win the nominating election. She faces former Agriculture Commissioner Josh Svaty, and retired Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, but Sen. Kelly appears to have constructed the appropriate coalition to achieve victory tomorrow night.

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