Tag Archives: Hispanic voters

Gallup: A Changing Electorate

Gallup Poll Results: To see complete story/data/polling results, go to: Gallup News

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 23, 2024

Polling

Nationwide Polling: Multiple Demographic Swings — The Gallup research organization released a new nationwide study earlier this month, which is a part of the entity’s Gallup Poll Social Series. The surveys are conducted throughout the year, of at least 1,000 US adults, and they cover 12 different topics annually, meaning a different subject matter each month.

The current release covers where certain segments of the American electorate now stand with reference to their political party preference. One of the key findings is that both parties are gaining strength among some constituencies, while losing it among others.

Gallup finds the Republicans are gaining strength with minority voters, while Democrats are clearly becoming the party of the higher educated.

Among black voters, Republicans have gained almost 20 percentage points just since 2019 when compared to Gallup’s historical surveys. While still having a strong allegiance toward Democrats, blacks now only favor the party by a 47-point span. In 2019, the Democratic margin over the Republicans was 66 points, and even that figure is down from the Democrats’ apex point of 79, which was reached in 2008.

Among Hispanics, Democrats reached their apex in 2016 when they enjoyed a 36-point preference margin over Republicans within this demographic. The current Gallup national survey yields a stark result, finding the Hispanic Democratic advantage today has slipped to only 12 percentage points.

The non-Hispanic white category has also moved considerably toward Republicans, though it wasn’t long ago that the Democratic share of the national electoral vote was at parity with Republicans. In 2007, Democrats had a one-point edge over the GOP within the non-Hispanic white segment. Currently, the pollsters find the spread at 17 points between the two parties, favoring Republicans.

The news isn’t all bad for Democrats, however. Gallup continues to see major shifts among the higher educated voters who are significantly breaking away from the Republicans. Today, the trend shows a 29-point Democratic advantage over Republicans among postgraduate individuals, which is a considerable shift from 2010 when the Democratic edge was 11 percentage points. During that same time frame, the college graduate sector has gone from a nine-point preference for Republicans to what is now a five-point edge for Democrats, which is a swing of 14 points toward the latter party.

In the education category, however, the group that has demonstrated the most radical swing are those not having gone to college. In 2006 through ’08, the Democrats had a consistent 16-point edge. The latest Gallup survey finds almost the opposite result, with Republicans now holding a 14-point advantage within this same category.

Though these particular demographic and personal trait segments are reporting some different partisan allegiance predispositions this does not necessarily mean we will see a commensurate change in voting behavior. Obviously, the candidates matter as does the persuasion communication method developed for the individuals comprising these groups who are apparently more receptive to a different political message today than those from a previous time frame.

This at least partially explains why the vote patterns have not been running parallel to the sentiments detected in this Gallup poll and from other survey entities who are finding similar results.

This type of research does tell us, however, how campaign targeting strategy and communication approach might change for 2024 in comparison to previous elections from the past decade. The party that learns to best manage this changing electorate will be the one enjoying the most success in November.

Sen. Warnock Jumps to Significant Lead, Kemp & Abrams Tied in Georgia; Incumbent Rep. Lee Trailing in NV-3

By Jim Ellis — July 1, 2022

Senate

Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker

Georgia: Sen. Warnock Jumps to Significant Lead — The new Georgia Quinnipiac poll (June 23-27; 1,497 registered Georgia voters; live interview) finds Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) claiming a 54-44 percent lead over Republican Herschel Walker, the most lopsided pro-Democratic ballot test to date. The previous polling from December to mid-April (six polls) had given Walker a slight edge.

Sen. Warnock carries a positive 49:39 percent job approval rating in contrast to President Biden’s upside-down 33:60 percent approval rating. Walker scores rather poorly on honesty, 39:43 percent honest to dishonest, and is not perceived to have particularly good leadership skills, 37:43 percent. As point of reference, the same polling sample finds Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and former state House Minority Leader and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams (D) tied at 48 percent.

However, the study could be an anomaly.

Though polls have been moving toward Sen. Warnock, the Q-Poll takes a giant leap, so it is possible that this survey is an outlier. Democrats support Warnock, 97-2 percent; Republicans are for Walker in a 93-7 percent clip.

The Independent sector is where we may be detecting a significant skew. This group, on virtually every question but the Biden job approval query moves significantly toward the Democratic position and/or candidate, and in a greater degree than one would expect from people who self-identify as “independents” (62-33 percent for Warnock).

While this particular poll may well skew toward Sen. Warnock, it is probable that we will soon see other data yielding a much closer ballot test. The Georgia Senate race is one that is far from over.

Missouri: Independent Joins Race — Answering former Sen. John Danforth’s (R) call for a new candidate in the Senate race, former US Attorney John Wood announced his plans to enter the contest as an Independent. He claims this is a move to potentially stop former Gov. Eric Greitens from prevailing in the general election should he win the Republican nomination. In reality, however, by splitting the vote in such a manner — if Wood were to become a top-tier candidate — would likely elect the Democratic nominee.

Wood says that if elected, he would support Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) for Majority Leader and would presumably caucus with the Republicans. To qualify for the ballot in Missouri, an Independent candidate must submit 10,000 valid registered voters’ signatures by an Aug. 1 deadline.

House

FL-2: Close Poll in Paired Race — The new northern Florida’s 2nd District is rated R+16 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. A new Sachs Media poll (June 20-23; 400 likely FL-2 general election voters), however, finds Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) leading Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee) by only a 43-40 percent margin. Perhaps the most troubling segment for Rep. Dunn is the unaffiliated voters who are breaking for Lawson by a 42-18 percent margin.

NV-3: Rep. Lee Trailing in New Survey — The Tarrance Group, polling for the April Becker (R) campaign (June 20-23; 400 likely NV-3 general election voters), posts their client and Republican challenger to a 46-44 percent edge over incumbent Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas). Likely most troubling for the Lee campaign is her deficit among Hispanic voters who comprise almost 19 percent of the 3rd District of Nevada’s population. Within this segment, Becker leads the congresswoman 48-42 percent. President Biden’s job approval rating here is a poor 37 percent.

OK-2: Runoff Set — With enough votes counted, it is now clear that the Republican runoff to replace Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) will feature state Rep. Avery Frix (R-Muskogee), who finished first with just 14.7 percent among the crowded field, and former state Sen. John Brecheen, who was close behind with 13.8 percent support. The two just eclipsed Muskogee Police Chief Johnny Teehee (13.0 percent) and Oklahoma Republican Party chairman John Bennett (11.3 percent). The runoff winner is a lock to win the general election in a R+55 rated seat according the the 538 data group.

Redistricting

Louisiana: Supreme Court Stays Ruling — The federal judge’s ruling that disqualified the new Louisiana congressional map because it did not draw a second black district has been stayed. The United States Supreme Court (SCOTUS) took the action to at least temporarily block the ruling from taking effect. The conclusion will mean the legislature’s map will return at least for the 2022 election.

The courts, either through this case or the Alabama Voting Rights case that the SCOTUS has already scheduled for hearing, will likely determine how the Voting Rights Act is to be interpreted moving forward. This could mean that the Louisiana map and many others will be re-drawn for the 2024 election and beyond.

Analyzing the 2018 Vote

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 5, 2018 — The Pew Research Center recently released a series of reports about the 2018 electoral patterns that allow us to better understand what happened in last month’s voting.

Clearly, the election produced mixed results: Republicans gained two seats in the Senate; Democrats reached near-wave proportions in the House; Democrats converted a net seven governorships, yet only scored new majorities in six legislative chambers and produced at least temporary redistricting control in just one state (Colorado).

But, why did these unusual results happen? The Pew findings provide us clues.

Among college-educated women, according to the Pew research, 59 percent voted Democratic for the House of Representatives as compared to only 39 percent choosing the respective Republican candidate. College-educated men broke 51-47 percent for the Republican congressional candidate. Compared to other years, college-educated women, who normally break Democratic, did so to a greater degree in 2018, whereas college-educated men failed to reach Republican margins typically found.

Therefore, Democratic strategists, who heavily weighted the highly educated segment believing a turnout surge within this sector would occur, proved correct.

Perhaps indicative of how the Republicans performed, the Pew study uncovered a segment of voters that showed that only 10 percent of Republican voters mentioned economic policies in explaining their vote motivation with only two percent citing the “good economy.”

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