July 28, 2016 — Suddenly, the Democrats seemed well positioned to potentially claim a new senator and governor from normally Republican Indiana.
Tuesday, appointed Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb, the former chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, won the special vote to replace vice presidential nominee Mike Pence as the party’s gubernatorial standard bearer. He now faces former state House Speaker John Gregg (D) in the general election. Gregg held Pence to a 49-46 percent victory in 2012.
The party’s State Committee, comprised of the state party officers and congressional district chairs and vice chairs from all nine districts, has the responsibility of filling statewide ballot vacancies. With Gov. Pence departing on the final day that the party could begin replacement proceedings, the State Committee leadership scheduled the secret ballot vote for Tuesday, though they had 30 days to take action.
July 21, 2016 — If we use the 2012 presidential map as the starting point for projecting the current campaign’s outcome, we can see that the race could literally be determined in three large swing states. If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump maintain the states that President Obama and Mitt Romney each won four years ago with the exception of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, such a configuration would result in a Trump national victory.
To review, President Obama received 332 Electoral Votes, winning 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney took 24 states for a total of 206 Electoral Votes. The grand total for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is 67 Electoral Votes, meaning Trump winning all three would give him 273 national votes and ultimate victory. It takes 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency.
A Trump victory is also dependent upon him carrying the 22 states that have gone Republican in every presidential election of this century, and Indiana, which strayed only in 2008 when then-Sen. Barack Obama carried the Hoosier State by one percentage point. The addition of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence to the ticket should help in that regard, if any is needed.
July 19, 2016 — Indiana Gov. Mike Pence’s selection as Donald Trump’s Republican vice presidential nominee begins an unusual succession process. Immediately, the members of the Indiana Republican Party’s State Committee must take action to choose replacement nominees for what is becoming a series of vacancies.
Friday was the state deadline to finalize the November ballot. Up until noon on July 15, candidates throughout Indiana could withdraw after winning the May 3 primary, leaving the affected political party structure in charge of selecting replacements. Never has the ballot deadline created such an active period.
Somewhat lost in the deadline flurry of activity surrounding Pence’s ascension to the national ticket, was the Democratic move earlier in the week when party leaders were able to convince ex-Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN-9) to withdraw from the Senate race and allow former senator and governor, Evan Bayh (D), to step in as the replacement.
July 6, 2016 — The media carried stories over the July 4th weekend that one or both of the presidential candidates is close to naming a running mate. It is a virtual certainty that Donald Trump will announce first, since there is little or no incentive for Hillary Clinton to do so. It is to her advantage to wait until after Trump makes his move, since the Democratic National Convention follows the Republican conclave.
Clinton has the opportunity to pivot from Trump’s eventual choice, and help use the VP choice to balance her own ticket and counter whomever the Republican eventually selects.
Some media reports are suggesting that Trump will unveil his running mate this week. It would make better political sense for him to wait until convention week, thus drawing more attention to the national assemblage, but there is one reason he might announce earlier.
Aug. 11, 2015 — A new poll suggests that early predictions regarding the Louisiana governor’s race may be changing. It has been a foregone conclusion that Sen. David Vitter (R) will win his state’s open chief executive position later this year, and then appoint his own successor. That may well be the end result, but this latest data indicates his victory path may not be so clear-cut.
Pollster Verne Kennedy’s Market Research Insight, a Pensacola, Florida-based survey research firm that concentrates on southern political campaigns, released a new study placing Vitter behind another Republican candidate but remaining ahead of the top Democrat in the jungle primary format. The polling dates and sample size are not yet available.
According to the reported MRI data, it is now Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle (R) who leads the field with 24 percent, followed by Vitter’s 21 percent, while Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards holds 20 percent.