Tag Archives: EMILY’S List

McSally Surges in New Arizona Poll

By Jim Ellis

Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson)

Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson)

Oct. 12, 2018 — A new OH Predictive Insights survey for ABC News 15 in Phoenix (Oct. 1-2; 600 likely Arizona voters) brings new information about the open Arizona Senate race. According to the ballot test results, Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) has overcome Rep. Kyrsten Sinema’s (D-Phoenix) consistent small lead in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R) and claims a six-point advantage, 47-41 percent.

Though this is the first time that Rep. McSally has scored a lead beyond the polling margin of error, the new result is plausible.

For several weeks, surveys have projected that Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is expanding his small advantage over Arizona State University professor and Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Garcia into a double-digit lead, but the same polls continued to forecast Rep. Sinema with a tight edge in the Senate race. It seemed only a matter of time before the act of Ducey cementing his margin would begin to help McSally.

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)

Secondly, McSally, a retired Air Force colonel and the first woman to fly a combat mission and command a flight squadron, has been hitting Sinema over her role as a war protester prior to the latter woman being elected to the state legislature. The contrast is a compelling one and should play to McSally’s favor. Arizona may be more politically competitive that in past years, but Republicans still maintain a statewide advantage here. Additionally, the death of Arizona Sen. John McCain brings greater attention to those engaged in military careers, thus further helping McSally.

An outside conservative organization then began attacking Sinema over legislation she drafted while in the legislature that made it more difficult to charge individuals in child prostitution cases. Sinema’s argument was that men should not be held totally responsible for engaging in such a crime if the prostitute in question is made to look much older than her true age. This attack appears relatively weak and may miss the mark, but it adds to the multi-pronged strategy to cast Rep. Sinema in a negative light.

For her part, Sinema countered with more positive ads and saw the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List come into the race to levy negative attacks against Rep. McSally. The DSCC is running a version of the healthcare/pre-existing condition/elimination of Medicare ad that they are using around the country. EMILY’s List is using a different mode of attack, venturing into the healthcare debate but applying it to Hispanic children, in Spanish, in the Phoenix and Tucson media markets.

Returning to the polling analysis, this is the second time that OH Predictive Insights has projected McSally with a lead. Their first such poll came in early September (Sept. 5-6; 597 likely Arizona voters) when they found the Republican to be holding a smaller 49-46 percent advantage. Simultaneously, Gravis Marketing (Sept. 5-7; 882 likely Arizona voters) also saw the Tucson representative forging ahead, 49-48 percent. The July OH Predictive survey found Sinema holding a 48-44 percent edge.

Between the time McSally was first detected as holding the edge (early September) and today, seven pollsters have surveyed the Arizona Senate campaign and all posted Rep. Sinema to a positive margin of between three and seven points, though five of the studies projected leads of three points or less.

Vox Populi, polling in the same period as OH Predictive (Sept. 29-Oct. 2; 702 likely Arizona voters) also forecasts McSally to be ahead in the race, 45-42 percent, with Republicans up on the generic ballot test, 51-49 percent, when all leaners are calculated. This helps provide support that the OH Predictive numbers are in the reliability realm despite arriving at a different conclusion than other recent pollsters.

Fox News and YouGov were also in the field during this early October time period and both still project Rep. Sinema continuing to hold her typical small edge. Fox (Sept. 29-Oct. 2; 716 likely Arizona voters) and YouGov (Oct. 2-5; 898 likely Arizona voters) each sees Sinema capturing 47 percent support, with McSally trailing at 45 and 44 percent, respectively.

This race continues to be close and will go down to the wire. In order to win, Rep. McSally must continue to find ways of going on the offensive with an effort of drawing a clear contrast between the two candidates. Rep. Sinema must continue her campaign strategy of attempting to nationalize and personalize the race with additionally pushing her theme of serving her current local constituents.

Florida Redistricting: The Latest

Jan. 14, 2016 — The Florida court-ordered redistricting saga continues with new developments regularly changing the political atmospherics. Back in early July, the Florida state Supreme Court struck down eight of the state’s congressional districts – four Republican-held; four Democratic – for reasons of “partisan gerrymandering.”

The map has been changed, enacted, and now fully reported. Since the exact boundaries have found their way into the public domain, we can now see that virtually the entire state has been affected. Mandating boundary alterations in eight districts translated into changing 24 of the state’s 27 CDs. The only three to remain intact are a trio of Republican seats: FL-1 (Rep. Jeff Miller-Pensacola; northwest Florida Panhandle); FL-8 (Rep. Bill Posey; Cape Canaveral to Vero Beach); and FL-19 (Rep. Curt Clawson; Ft. Myers-Cape Coral to Marco Island).

One, Rep. Patrick Murphy’s (D-Jupiter) 18th District (Ft. Pierce to West Palm Beach), saw less than a one percent change. The two districts altered the most are Rep. Corrine Brown’s (D-Jacksonville) 5th District and GOP Rep. Dan Webster’s 10th CD (Orlando).

The Brown seat that formerly stretched from Jacksonville to Orlando, touching Gainesville and Sanford along the way, now encompasses territory from Jacksonville to Tallahassee. It is still heavily African American, but the original region has been divided over six districts. The largest portion of the 2011-drawn seat, a 40.1 percent population segment, is actually in Orlando. Her Jacksonville anchor maintains just 38.2 percent of the former FL-5 constituency.

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Razor-Thin Tennessee Results; Walsh; Hawaii, Tomorrow

Tennessee – Statewide

Sen. Lamar Alexander won renomination last night in Tennessee, and while his margin wasn’t razor-thin, his victory percentage was unimpressive. Scoring just 50 percent in his own Republican primary, Alexander out-polled state Rep. Joe Carr’s 41 percent. The remaining five candidates split the outstanding vote.

But the closeness of the contest occurred on the Democratic side, in what will likely be a battle for the right to lose to Alexander in November. Attorney Gordon Ball has been projected the winner, leading attorney Terry Adams by just 1,911 votes statewide.

One thing is clear, however. The statewide turnout overwhelmingly favored Republicans. Approximately 645,000 individuals voted in the Republican primary as compared with just under 240,000 who participated on the Democratic side.

On the other end of the margin perspective, Gov. Bill Haslam (R) cruised to an 88 percent victory. He will face Democrat  Continue reading >

Rep. Miller’s Retirement Repercussions – The CA-31 Turn-Around

Yesterday, Rep. Gary Miller (R-CA-31) announced that he would retire at the end of this Congress and not seek re-election in his San Bernardino County US House district. The 31st in California is the most Democratic CD in the country to elect a Republican congressman. Against national GOP nominee Mitt Romney, Pres. Obama scored 57.2 percent of the vote here, providing a clear example of its partisan leanings.

The now open CA-31 becomes the best Democratic conversion opportunity in the country. With registration in their favor and a weak Republican presence post-Miller, chances are strong of a double-Democrat general election, meaning a sure Democratic gain.

Here’s why: The 2012 congressional result was quirky in the fact that this decidedly Democratic district sent two Republicans to the general election under California’s new  Continue reading >