Tag Archives: Dennis Kucinich

Primary Previews

By Jim Ellis

2018-elections-open-seats-185May 8, 2018 — Today’s elections kick-off the prime time of primary season, with voters in four states — Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia — choosing nominees for November. Here is an outlook for each of the states:

Indiana

With no governor’s race on the ballot this year, the Republican Senate nomination campaign tops the Indiana political card, which is one of the more interesting campaigns in the country. Here, Reps. Todd Rokita (R-Brownsburg/Lafayette) and Luke Messer (R-Greensburg/Muncie) are battling former state representative and Meyer Distributing and Meyer Logistics companies’ owner Mike Braun for the right to face first-term Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in November. Donnelly has no opposition for his party nomination.

Braun has gained national notoriety for his campaign, which has strategically melded both congressmen into basically one person. The Braun Campaign ads have characterized Reps. Rokita and Messer as being part of the Washington “swamp”, concentrating negatively on their budget and trade votes, as well as casting them as professional politicians. He even goes so far as to brandish two cardboard cutouts of the congressmen where they are dressed exactly alike and says they are both lawyers who never practiced, instead spending their entire careers in politics.

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Ohio Poll: Heading for Primary Day

By Jim Ellis

state-of-ohio-mapMay 7, 2018 — Tomorrow’s primary featuring voting in Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia is now only a day away; Berea, Ohio’s Baldwin Wallace University just released a new survey of the Buckeye State electorate.

Though the poll possesses significant flaws, the primary results for both parties seem consistent with other published data, even though such publicly released information is sparse.

The Baldwin Wallace poll (April 24-May 2; 811 registered Ohio voters — 333 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters, 323 likely Ohio Republican primary voters) is unusual in several ways.

First, the nine-day polling sample is, on average, three times too long and thus negatively affects overall reliability.

Second, and more damaging, is the huge over-sampling of female voters in the respondent sample. Some 59 percent of those polled are female leading women to dominate every polling segment. For example, on the question of political ideology, more women then men say they are very liberal (60.3 percent), liberal (60.0 percent), moderate (57.3 percent), conservative (53.6 percent), and very conservative (52.8 percent), thus yielding a female majority in every category. Since women traditionally poll more liberal than men, this poll skews definitively to the left.

Another unusual aspect associated with the Baldwin Wallace research is the administrators not testing 2018 general election pairings even though they move forward to begin examining the 2020 Ohio presidential campaign.

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Rare Ohio Data

By Jim Ellis

March 28, 2018 — Survey USA came into Ohio to test the Buckeye statewide races — campaigns that have not yet received much attention from national political pollsters. The results provided both expected and surprising tallies.

state-of-ohio-mapIn the US Senate race, a campaign that has undergone a great deal of change after original candidate Josh Mandel, Ohio’s treasurer who held Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a 51-45 percent win in 2012, was forced to exit the re-match because of his wife’s recently discovered serious medical condition. Upon Mandel’s departure, Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth), who had already announced and was actively campaigning for governor, decided to switch gears and entered the Senate race.

Investment banker Mike Gibbons, an ally of Gov. John Kasich (R), was opposing Mandel while the latter man was still in the Senate contest, and continues to battle Rep. Renacci. S-USA tested them all.

According to the polling data (March 16-20; 1,408 likely Ohio voters; 541 GOP likely primary voters; 509 Democratic likely primary voters) Sen. Brown maintains strong, and identical, leads against both Republican contenders. Against Rep. Renacci and Gibbons individually, Sen. Brown’s advantage is 52-38 percent.

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Ohio Candidates File to Run

state-of-ohio-mapBy Jim Ellis

Feb. 12, 2018 — The candidate filing deadline in Ohio passed last week — the fifth state to set its political contenders for the coming midterm election.

All of the expected gubernatorial candidates filed, meaning we will see a crowded Democratic field of eight candidates, led by former attorney general and recently resigned federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray. The remaining field features former congressman, Cleveland mayor, state legislator, and two-time presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich; retired state Supreme Court Justice Bill O’Neill; state senator and former minority leader, Joe Schiavoni (D-Mahoning Valley); and Cincinnati ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich.

The Republicans are set for a gubernatorial one-on-one match between attorney general and former US senator, Mike DeWine, and Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. The general election is expected to feature a DeWine-Cordray battle, which will be a re-match of the 2010 attorney general’s campaign, a contest where DeWine unseated Cordray in a close campaign.

In the US Senate race, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) sees five Republicans battling for the right to challenge him in November. Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) and investment banker Mike Gibbons are the two leading GOP candidates. Rep. Renacci is leaving his north-central congressional district to run for the Senate, switching to that race from the governor’s campaign after state Treasurer Josh Mandel decided not to run because of his wife’s newly diagnosed health condition. Since Mandel is ineligible to seek another term as treasurer, he will not be on the 2018 Ohio ballot.

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The Ohio Ins and Outs

Ohio-congressional-districtsBy Jim Ellis

Jan. 15, 2018 — Since the turn of the century, the state of Ohio has become crucial in deciding national elections, and its status for 2018 is no exception. This week, several key moves were made that began to define the general election ballot even before candidate filing closes and the May 8 primary is conducted.

The Senate race was shaken last week when state treasurer Josh Mandel (R), the 2012 Senate nominee who had the inside track to again win the Republican primary in order to force a re-match with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), unexpectedly announced he was dropping out of the race due to a newly diagnosed health condition for his wife. Though investment banker Michael Gibbons was still in the race, a Republican void existed in a campaign that has all the underpinnings of becoming highly competitive. Even with President Obama leading the Democratic ticket and carrying Ohio six years ago, Mandel managed to hold Sen. Brown to only a 51-45 percent re-election victory.

Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth), who had been competing in the governor’s race, announced late last week that he would switch to the Senate campaign. The Republican gubernatorial primary underwent significant change in November, and both Renacci and Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor found themselves on the outside looking in. Because attorney general and former US senator, Mike DeWine, and Secretary of State Jon Husted, the candidates who were running 1-2 in early polling, decided to join forces and form a ticket, the odds of either Taylor or Renacci upsetting the race leader, DeWine, grew to long-shot proportions.

While Taylor remains in the governor’s race, Renacci has now bolted for the Senate campaign to hopefully compete against Sen. Brown. The incumbent is clearly taking his re-election campaign very seriously, as the coming financial disclosure report will show his cash-on-hand figure to be already approaching $10 million. With Renacci’s ability to self-fund a statewide campaign and Republicans looking fondly on President Trump’s eight-point victory in Ohio, the eventual GOP nominee – whether it’s Rep. Renacci, Gibbons, or another late-entry candidate – will command the resources necessary to match whatever Brown and his Democratic allies spend.

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