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Recapping the OH-12 Results

Troy Balderson (R)

Troy Balderson (R)

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 9, 2018
— The OH-12 special congressional election drew major attention Tuesday evening as state Sen. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) and Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) battled well into the night before it became clear that the GOP had again escaped with a close victory. Despite the loss, Democrats began looking toward November as they made the point that their candidate exceeded typical voting patterns in what should be a Republican district.

Though approximately 3,300 provisional ballots remain uncounted, it is likely too small a number to eradicate a 1,754-vote margin. But, approximately 5,000 absentee ballots that were requested and mailed to the voter have yet to be returned. It is unclear just how many from this group are on the way to the appropriate elections officer. But, the outstanding votes didn’t prevent the GOP leadership from introducing Balderson as the new “congressman-elect.”

Prior to the election, the Daily Kos Elections Page featured a set of predictions from David Jarman, one of the site’s principals, who developed a model posting Democratic benchmarks for every county throughout the district. The numbers represented the percentage that O’Connor would need to obtain in order to score a bare 48-47 percent win over Sen. Balderson.

The prediction chart proved almost precisely accurate. Over-estimating the percentages that Green Party nominee Joe Manchik received was the only flawed calculation. The Jarman prediction suggested that Manchik would garner in the neighborhood of five percent, but the actual figure was only 0.6 percent.

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