Feb. 1, 2019 — One of the principle reasons the 2018 US House elections evolved from a close Democratic majority to a rout was the California results. The Sacramento Bee newspaper just published an article that Capitol reporter Kate Irby wrote (Jan. 29, 2019; updated Jan. 30, 2019), which provides part of the explanation as to why so many Golden State congressional seats flipped from R to D: seven to be exact. (See Irby’s article here: ‘Trump effect:’ California Latino voters showed up in force in 2018. Will they do it again?)
One major reason, according to the statistics derived from the Political Data Inc. firm and the California Civic Engagement Project at the University of Southern California research is the increased number of Hispanic votes in each of the seven districts in question.
The key finding in all seven of the flipped districts, is the Hispanic vote percentage generally equaled that of a presidential election and was substantially higher than from the previous midterm election (2014).
Additionally, most of the districts saw a significant increase in Hispanic population since 2014, meaning an even greater raw number of voters when adding the increased turnout percentage. When reading the Hispanic figures remember that approximately two-thirds of that particular vote segment, at a minimum, was cast for the Democratic candidate.
Below are the findings:
CA-10: (Modesto, Tracy, Turlock)
New Member: Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) Former Member: Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Turlock)
Harder: 119,945 – 52.3%
Denham: 105,955 – 47.7%
Denham 2016 Vote: 124,671 – 51.7%
Difference from 2016: 18,716
Hispanic Vote Base:
2018: 26% 2014: 18%
2018: 58% 2016: 68%
Raw Number Hispanic Registered Voters:
2018: 91,132 2014: 53,602
Raw Number Hispanic Turnout:
2018: 52,857 2014: 15,555
Increased Hispanic Raw Number Vote from 2014 to 2018: 37,302
Money is flying in House races right now, and the respective party and outside organization spending is indicative about how the races are unfolding. Republicans are on the offensive in some obscure districts; Democrats, with the exception of their operations against Reps. Lee Terry (R-NE-2), Steve Southerland (R-FL-2), and Michael Grimm (R-NY-11), are generally retreating to protect endangered incumbents.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) just reported adding money to some existing media buys. They are increasing their presence for Reps. Brad Schneider (D-IL-10), Bill Enyart (D-IL-12), Rick Nolan (D-MN-8), Dan Maffei (D-NY-24), and Nick Rahall (D-WV-3). This clearly suggests Republican challengers in each of those districts are legitimate upset contenders.
The following is a list of the latest action in what can be described as emerging races. All of the predictions in these campaigns originally favored the incumbent or the incumbent party in an open seat situation.
• AR-4: Rep. Tom Cotton’s (R) open seat is now yielding a competitive contest between Republican state Rep. Bruce Westerman and Democrat former Federal Emergency Management Agency director James Lee Witt. Westerman had the early lead, but a new Hendrix College Talk Business poll (Oct. 15-16; 410 likely AR-4 voters) shows the Republican advantage dwindling to 44-42 percent. Continue reading >