Where the Senate Stands

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 28, 2020 — A tough battle is underway for the US Senate majority, and both parties are fiercely attempting to assume control in the next Congress. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, but a win in Alabama would send them to 54-46, and that makes the Democrats’ road to the majority all the more difficult.

Democrats need a net conversion of three Republican seats if Joe Biden is elected president, and four if President Trump wins re-election.

Today, we take a snapshot look at polling figures in the key campaign states. How the states listed below eventually fall will determine which party runs the Senate for the 117th Congress.

Below, we provide you the two most extreme results of recent publicly released surveys from the competitive campaigns. The Ellis Insight ratings depict where the race is today, which is not solely based upon polling.


ALABAMA – Lean R (possible conversion)

Morning Consult (July 24-Aug. 2; 80 likely Alabama voters)
• Tommy Tuberville (R) – 52%
• Sen. Doug Jones (D) – 35%

Auburn University at Montgomery (July 2-9; 55 registered Alabama voters)
• Tommy Tuberville (R) – 44%
• Sen. Doug Jones (D) – 36%


ARIZONA – Lean D (possible conversion)

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (Aug. 16-18; 856 likely Arizona voters)
• Mark Kelly (D) – 53%
• Sen. Martha McSally (R) – 34%

OnMessage (Aug. 2-4; 40 likely Arizona voters)
• Mark Kelly (D) – 48%
• Sen. Martha McSally (R) – 48%


COLORADO – Lean D (possible conversion)

Public Policy Polling (Aug. 18-19; 731 Colorado voters)
• Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) – 51%
• Sen. Cory Gardner (R) – 42%

Morning Consult (July 17-26; 61 likely Colorado voters)
• Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) – 48%
• Sen. Cory Gardner (R) – 42%


GEORGIA–A – Lean R/Toss

Garin Hart Yang Research Group (Aug. 10-13; 60 likely Georgia voters)
• Jon Ossoff (D) – 48%
• Sen. David Perdue (R) – 46%

Survey USA (Aug. 6-8; 62 likely Georgia voters)
• Sen. David Perdue (R) – 44%
• Jon Ossoff (D) – 41%


GEORGIA–B – Lean R (Jungle Primary – Nov 3)

Survey USA (Aug. 6-8; 62 likely Georgia voters)
• Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) – 22%
• Rep. Doug Collins (R) – 18%
• Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) – 14%
• Matt Lieberman (D) – 14%
• Ed Tarver (D) – 6%

MRG Research (June 18-23; 1,259 likely Georgia voters)
• Rep. Doug Collins (R) – 27%
• Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) – 23%
• Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) – 21%
• Matt Lieberman (D) – 13%


IOWA – (Toss-Up)

Data for Progress (July 24-Aug. 2; 1,10 likely Iowa voters)
• Theresa Greenfield (D) – 45%
• Sen. Joni Ernst (R) – 41%

Monmouth University (July 30-Aug. 3; 40 likely Iowa voters)
• Sen. Joni Ernst (R) – 48%
• Theresa Greenfield (D) – 47%


KANSAS – (Lean R)

Survey USA (Aug. 5-9; 1,20 likely Kansas voters)
• Rep. Roger Marshall (R) – 46%
• St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) – 44%

Public Policy Polling (Aug. 5-6; 864 Kansas voters)
• Rep. Roger Marshall (R) – 43%
• St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) – 42%


KENTUCKY – (Lean R)

Quinnipiac University (July 30-Aug. 3; 90 registered Kentucky voters)
• Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) – 49%
• Amy McGrath (D) – 44%

Morning Consult (July 24-Aug. 2; 79 likely Kentucky voters)
• Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) – 53%
• Amy McGrath (D) – 36%


MAINE – (Toss-Up)

Critical Insights (July 28-Aug. 9; 45 likely Maine voters)
• Sara Gideon (D) – 43%
• Sen. Susan Collins (R) – 38%

RMG Research (July 27-Aug. 2; 50 registered Maine voters)
• Sara Gideon (D) – 48%
• Sen. Susan Collins (R) – 41%


MICHIGAN – (Lean D)

Change Research (Aug. 21-23; 809 likely Michigan voters
• Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 50%
• John James (R) – 45%

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (Aug. 16-18; 812 likely Michigan voters)
• Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 48%
• John James (R) – 39%


MINNESOTA – (Likely D/Lean D)

Emerson College (Aug. 8-10; 73 likely Minnesota voters)
• Sen. Tina Smith (D) – 48%
• Ex-Rep. Jason Lewis (R) – 45%

Public Policy Polling (July 22-23; 1,218 Minnesota voters)
• Sen. Tina Smith (D) – 48%
• Ex-Rep. Jason Lewis (R) – 39%


MONTANA – (Lean R)

Emerson College (July 31-Aug. 2; 58 likely Montana voters)
• Sen. Steve Daines (R) – 50%
• Gov. Steve Bullock (D) – 44%

Public Policy Polling (July 9-10; 1,218 Montana voters)
• Gov. Steve Bullock (D) – 46%
• Sen. Steve Daines (R) – 44%


NORTH CAROLINA – (Toss-Up)

Morning Consult (Aug. 14-23; 1,54 likely North Carolina voters)
• Cal Cunningham (D) – 39%
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 47%

Harper Polling (Aug. 6-10; 60 likely North Carolina voters)
• Cal Cunningham (D) – 41%
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 38%


SOUTH CAROLINA – (Lean R)

Quinnipiac University (July 30-Aug. 3; 914 registered South Carolina voters)
• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) – 44%
• Jaime Harrison (D) – 44%

Public Policy Polling (July 30-31; 1,117 South Carolina voters)
• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) – 47%
• Jaime Harrison (D) – 44%


TEXAS – (Lean R)

YouGov (Aug. 4-13; 846 registered Texas voters)
• Sen. John Cornyn (R) – 44%
• M.J. Hegar (D) – 37%

Global Strategy Group/Latino Decisions (Aug. 25-29; 70 likely Texas voters)
• Sen. John Cornyn (R) – 43%
• M.J. Hegar (D) – 42%

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